汽車行業: 今年首季中國汽車銷量快速增長
Strong economic growth and consumer confidence boosted first-quarter car sales in China as the mainland shook off last year’s weakness to resume strong double-digit growth.
Light vehicle sales in the world’s largest vehicle market rose 17 per cent to 4.42m in the first three months of the year. In March alone, sales of cars, sport utility and other passenger vehicles climbed to almost 2m, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said yesterday.
在2013年頭3個月，全球最大汽車市場中國的乘用車銷量達到442萬輛，較上年同期增長17%。中國汽車工業協會(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)昨日表示，僅3月份當月，轎車、運動型多功能車(SUV)以及其他乘用車型的銷量就攀升至約200萬輛。“China’s auto industry delivered solid double-digit growth, driven by continued expansion of its population of urban middle-class buyers,” said Bill Russo of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and the former head of Chrysler in China.
原克萊斯勒(Chrysler)中國區主管、北京Synergistics汽車諮詢公司總裁羅威(Bill Russo)說：“中國的汽車工業實現了兩位數的堅實增長，主要受城市中產階級購車羣體持續擴大推動。”
But he warned against over-optimistic assumptions over market growth, which has led to excess capacity, especially among state-owned domestic carmakers.
但他警告稱，不應對市場增長前景抱有過於樂觀的預期。市場增長已導致中國汽車行業產能過剩，在本土國有汽車生產商中尤爲嚴重。Local independents Geely and BYD have said they were optimistic about auto demand this year with the new government leadership in place.
中國民營汽車製造商吉利(Geely)和比亞迪(BYD)表示，在新一屆政府的領導下，他們看好今年的汽車市場需求規模。“We are confident about this year’s growth,” said Lawrence Ang, executive director at Geely in Hong Kong last month. “China’s overall economy will be improved from last year, helping to boost vehicle demand.”
吉利汽車執行董事洪少倫(Lawrence Ang)上月在香港表示：“我們對今年的市場增長前景很有信心。中國的整體經濟形勢將好於去年，這有助於提振汽車需求。”However, Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton cautioned in a note that despite stronger than expected first-quarter sales in China, future yearly growth was not likely to exceed 6-7 per cent.
但伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)汽車分析師馬克斯•沃伯頓(Max Warburton)在一份報告中警告稱，雖然第一季度中國的汽車銷售情況好於預期，但未來年度增幅不太可能超過6%至7%。He said: “Capacity additions still look set to outstrip demand.” He expected the industry to add at least 3.8m units of capacity by the end of the decade.
沃伯頓稱：“目前看來產能擴張仍將超出市場需求。”他預計在2020年以前，中國汽車工業的產能將增長至少380萬輛。”European and American car brands continued to take market share from Japanese rivals in China in the first quarter, auto analysts said, as the continuing political impact of a dispute over a set of islands left Japan’s carmakers struggling to recover ground.
汽車行業分析師們指出，第一季度在中國市場上，歐洲和美國汽車品牌繼續從日本競爭對手手中搶得市場份額，中日兩國圍繞一個羣島的領土爭端所產生的持續政治影響，導致日本汽車製造商很難收復失地。Luxury car sales in China continued to moderate from previous high double-digit levels, partly affected by the government’s austerity programme, which might have caused some buyers to delay ostentatious consumption.
豪華型轎車在華銷量增速持續放緩，低於早前兩位數的增長水平，部分受到政府部門厲行節約影響，這可能導致一些買方推遲炫耀型消費。But medium-term growth in the luxury sector is expected to remain strong as few retail analysts are predicting permanent impact from the austerity campaign.
但豪華型汽車的中期增長勢頭預計仍將保持強勁，因爲幾乎沒有零售分析師認爲政府的節儉運動將產生長期影響。“Compared with the US, Chinese [luxury car sales] will continue to grow at a stable and sustainable rate whereas the US and Japan are simply recovering from lost volume. China’s luxury market will probably double in size over the next five years,” Mr Russo said.
羅威表示：“與美國市場相比，中國的豪華轎車銷量將繼續以穩定的速度持續增長。而美國和日本的豪車銷售目前仍未回覆早前水平。在未來的五年中，中國的豪車市場規模很可能擴大一倍。”
