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中國官員駁斥唱衰中國經濟者

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Chinese economic and financial officials responded to worries about bad debt, “zombie companies” and currency depreciation over the weekend, insisting that doomsayers were underestimating the economy’s resilience and the government’s ability to balance growth with reform.

中國官員駁斥唱衰中國經濟者

中國經濟和金融官員在剛剛過去的週末迴應了壞賬、“殭屍企業”和人民幣貶值等關切,堅稱唱衰者低估了中國經濟的彈性以及政府平衡增長與改革的能力。

Volatility in the currency and stock markets has reverberated around global markets, largely because they are thought to be the symptom of deeper problems in the economy. Chinese officials used tightly controlled press appearances on the sidelines of the annual rubber-stamp parliament to try to restore confidence after their reputation for policy competence has been bruised.

人民幣和A股市場的波動近幾個月震動全球市場,主要因爲這些波動被認爲是更深層經濟問題的症狀。在全國人大年度會議的新聞發佈會上,中國官員試圖恢復市場信心,以挽回他們受到挫傷的政策能力聲譽。

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan — whose three major press appearances in the last month count as a charm offensive by the standards of his normally tight-lipped institution — appeared relaxed amid signs that the market turmoil has begun to settle.

在跡象顯示市場動盪已開始企穩的大背景下,中國央行行長周小川(上圖)看上去很放鬆。以中國央行平常守口如瓶的標準來看,過去一個月周小川舉行的三場記者會算得上是一輪魅力攻勢。

“Recently the trend has been a return to normality, a return to rationality, a return to fundamentals. Unless there’s some unusual circumstance, I believe this trend will continue,” said Mr Zhou.

周小川說:“這段時間有一個迴歸正常、迴歸理性、迴歸基本面的趨勢,我認爲如果沒有什麼特殊情況,這個趨勢會繼續下去。”

The renminbi touched its strongest level this year on Friday, at Rmb6.4881 against the dollar. Foreign exchange reserves data last weak showed capital outflows eased in February.

上週五,人民幣觸及今年以來最強水平,兌美元匯率升至1美元兌6.4881元人民幣。上週發佈的外匯儲備數據顯示2月份資金外流有所放緩。

Chief banking regulator Shang Fulin also addressed bearish sentiment, saying that rating agencies and bank analysts’ warning of serious problems with bad debt have committed a “misjudgment”. Earlier this month Moody’s warned it may downgrade ratings for Chinese sovereign and bank debt.

中國銀行業監督管理委員會主席尚福林也在發言時針對看跌情緒表態,稱評級機構和銀行分析師有關壞賬嚴重問題的警告是一個“誤判”。本月早些時候,穆迪(Moody’s)警告可能會下調對中國主權債務和銀行債務的評級。

Mr Zhou and Mr Shang also confirmed a trial plan to let banks package non-performing loans into securities and sell them to investors at discounts to their face value, an effort to remove toxic debt from the balance sheets of systemically-important institutions.

周小川和尚福林還證實了一個試驗計劃,即允許銀行將不良資產打包,進行證券化處理,以面值的折扣價賣給投資者,從而爲系統重要性金融機構的資產負債表清除壞賬。

Many analysts believe Chinese lenders are concealing the extent of defaults as the economy slows. Creating an active secondary market for distressed debt could encourage banks to admit losses before they reach crisis levels.

許多分析師認爲,中國的銀行掩蓋了經濟放緩之際的違約程度。爲不良債權創建活躍的二級市場,可能會鼓勵銀行在虧損達到危機水平之前承認損失。

But doubts remain about whether China can tackle the longer-term challenge of restructuring the economy, especially dealing with overcapacity and lossmaking “zombie companies”, many of them state-owned enterprises.

但對於中國能否應對調整經濟結構的長期挑戰,特別是涉及產能過剩和虧損的“殭屍企業”——其中不乏國有企業——疑慮仍然存在。

The head of China’s SOE regulator signalled the government will not embrace radical restructuring at the cost of social stability.

中國國有企業監管機構負責人表示,政府不會犧牲社會穩定來進行激進的重組。

“Protecting workers’ interests is an important factor throughout the next stage of [SOE] reform. We’ll use mergers, acquisitions and restructuring largely and minimise bankruptcy as much as possible,” said Xiao Yaqing, head of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

國資委主任肖亞慶說:“保護員工的利益始終是下一步(國企)改革的一個重要方面,多兼併重組,儘可能少破產,這也是國有企業改革的一個方向。”

Newly appointed securities regulator Liu Shiyu also made the case for stability, defending the stock market bailout carried out by his predecessor who was sacked last month. Critics have said the heavy-handed intervention wasted public funds and betrayed commitments to let market forces drive the economy. But Mr Liu said on Saturday that “results proved” the bailout had stabilised the market.

新任證監會主席劉士餘也談到了穩定性,爲上個月被解職的前任主席所進行的救市行動作出辯護。批評者表示重拳干預浪費了公共資金,且違背了讓市場力量推動經濟的承諾。但劉士餘在上週六表示“結果證明”救市穩定了市場。

“When liquidity has dried up and there is widescale panic, could we possibly fail to act decisively?” said Mr Liu.

劉士餘表示:“在市場流動性枯竭、大面積恐慌的情況下,不果斷出手還得了?”