服務業是中國經濟增長關鍵 China services sector key to growth
Banking, tutoring and healthcare are the holy grail both for China’s policymakers and its international investors. As Beijing looks to services to rev up slowing economic growth, private equity and others are buying into hospitals, English schools and consumer lenders.
銀行、培訓和醫療行業是中國政策制定者和國際對華投資者雙方的“聖盃”。在北京方面希望靠服務業提振不斷放緩的經濟增長的背景下，私募股權(PE)和其他機構開始在中國收購醫院、英語學校和消費信貸企業。
Property sales and factory construction are slowing but people in China are eagerly availing themselves of healthcare, tutoring and movie tickets. Beijing’s slow-burning bid to rebalance the economy towards consumption has received a boost from services, which account for 51 per cent of GDP, up from 44 per cent in 2011.
房地產銷售和工廠建設正在放緩，但中國人開始熱衷於在醫療、教育和電影票上花錢。北京方面文火慢燉的經濟再平衡努力已從服務業得到了提振。目前，服務業佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)的比例達到51%，高於2011年的44%。
The economy is on track for its weakest full-year growth in a quarter of a century. Without rapid expansion in financial services, education and healthcare, among other services, the overall slowdown would have been much worse.
今年中國經濟增速將是四分之一個世紀以來最慢的。若不是金融服務、教育和醫療等服務行業快速增長，中國經濟的整體放緩程度將嚴重得多。
“It’s quite clear that China’s services sector is doing much better than the manufacturing and construction sectors,” said Jianguang Shen, China economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.
“很明顯，中國服務業目前的表現比製造業和建築業好得多，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)駐香港的中國經濟學家沈建光表示。
But gaps in the official data make it tricky to assess which service industries are driving growth, fuelling doubts about whether apparent progress on rebalancing is real.
但是，官方數據的缺漏，使人很難評估到底是哪些服務行業正在推動經濟增長，進而讓人對再平衡是否確實大有進展感到懷疑。
Financial services were the biggest contributor to overall service-sector growth in the first half of the year. As the Chinese stock market boomed, trading commissions and other stock services pumped up brokerage profits. But after the market tumbled in July and August, analysts expected a decline in financial services to drag down the broader services sector.
今年上半年，金融服務業對服務業總體增長的貢獻最大。隨着中國股市大漲，交易佣金和其他證券服務提高了券商的利潤。但在7月和8月股市下跌之後，分析師們預計，金融服務業的下滑將拖累整體服務業的增長。
However, the opposite occurred. While financial services moderated in the third quarter, overall services growth accelerated from 8.3 per cent in the first half to 8.6 per cent in the third quarter, well above the 6.9 per cent growth of the broader economy.
然而情況正相反，儘管第三季度金融服務業增長放緩，但服務業整體增速卻從上半年的8.3%提高到了8.6%，遠遠高於6.9%的整體經濟增速。
The fastest growth came from “other” services, a broad category that includes healthcare, education, entertainment and culture, science and research, business services and utilities — fully 20 per cent of the economy. Lack of detail on which of these services grew the most has led to suspicions that China’s statistics bureau is using this category as a fudge factor to ensure headline GDP growth meets the government’s full-year target of "around 7 per cent".
增長最快的是“其他”服務行業，這是一個包括醫療、教育、娛樂與文化、科學與研究、商業服務和公用事業的廣泛類別——在經濟總量中的比重達到20%。其中哪些行業增長最快不得而知，讓人懷疑中國國家統計局是否把這一類別當作一個彈性因子，來確保總體GDP增長率符合政府提出的“7%左右”的全年目標。
“The answer to the question of whether China’s economy is sinking or swimming lies in its service sector,” wrote Mark Williams, China economist at Capital Economics.
“中國經濟到底是在下沉還是在向前遊？答案在於服務業，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家馬克威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)寫道。
Foreign investors are betting the services growth story is real. TPG last year joined a consortium that spent $461m to acquire a high-end private hospital operator. In June KKR bought a $91m stake in Tarena International, a US-listed provider of professional education services.
外國投資者正在押注中國服務業確實在增長。TPG去年和某財團聯手斥資4.61億美元收購了一家高端私人醫院運營商。今年6月，KKR斥資9100萬美元入股達內科技(Tarena International)，後者在美國上市，提供職業教育服務。
UK Prime Minister David Cameron has cited the potential for Britain’s service industries to invest in China as key motivations for his government's aggressive courtship of the country.
英國首相戴維慍蕓倫(David Cameron)把英國服務業在中國投資的潛力稱作他領導的政府向中國大力示好的關鍵動機。
As Mr Shen at Mizuho points out, Chinese demand for education outstrips supply.
正如瑞穗證券的沈建光指出的那樣，中國的教育領域存在供不應求狀況。
“Household demand for these high-end services can't be satisfied, which is why you see Chinese people visiting other countries to study abroad and for medical tourism,” he says.
“中國家庭對這些高端服務的需求無法得到滿足，這也是你看到很多中國人出國留學和進行醫療旅遊的原因，”沈建光稱。
Finance is another target area. In June, Standard Chartered’s PE unit invested $207m in peer-to-peer lender Dianrong, which targets consumers and small businesses underserved by incumbent banks.
金融是另一個投資目標。6月，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)私募股權部門向P2P網貸平臺“點融網”投資2.07億美元，後者以那些沒有從現有銀行得到充分服務的消費者和小企業爲目標客戶。
Domestic companies are also positioning themselves to target the service sector. Chinese investors made their first foray into English football this week, with Citic Capital and a Shanghai-based private equity fund buying a minority stake in the owner of Manchester City. The group hopes to bring the club to play matches in China.
中國國內企業也瞄準了服務業。上週，中國投資者首次進軍英國足球，中信資本(Citic Capital)及一家上海私募股權基金聯合收購了曼城足球俱樂部(MCFC)東家的少數股權。該集團希望讓曼城來中國踢比賽。
Dalian Wanda Group, parent of China’s largest commercial property developer, is branching out into theme parks, online retail and financial services. Evergrande Real Estate, the second-largest residential developer, last week bought a life assurer.
中國最大商業地產開發商的母公司大連萬達集團(Dalian Wanda Group)，正開始涉足主題公園、在線零售以及金融服務業。中國第二大住宅地產開發商恆大地產(Evergrande Real Estate)，不久前收購了一家人壽保險公司。
Services are also key to Beijing’s goal of reducing reliance on debt-fueled investment and generating more growth from consumption. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia and New Zealand Bank, estimates that services excluding shelter account for about 30 per cent of China’s consumer price index, which aims to reflect the typical consumer’s spending patterns.
對於中國政府希望減少對債務驅動型投資的依賴、以及更多地靠消費拉動增長的目標來說，服務業也是個關鍵。澳新銀行(ANZ)中國經濟學家劉利剛預計，服務業（不含居住類）在中國居民消費價格指數(CPI)中約佔30%比重。該指數旨在反映消費者支出的典型模式。
Goldman Sachs has sought to identify growth sectors by looking for areas where Chinese consumption lags behind that of Japan, Korea and the US.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)試圖通過找出中國落後於日本、韓國和美國的消費領域，來確定哪些屬於增長的行業。
“Chinese consumers spend quite heavily on food and clothing but are under-consuming on desires such as healthcare and entertainment,” analysts wrote in a recent note. They said China’s ageing population also meant households were likely to spend more and more on such things.
“中國消費者在吃穿方面的花費相當多，但是在醫療和娛樂等方面的消費不足，”分析師們在近期的報告中寫道。他們稱，中國日益老齡化的人口意味着普通家庭在這些方面的花費可能會越來越多。
Chinese healthcare spending grew 12.6 per cent in 2013 but still totalled only 5.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 10.3 per cent in Japan and 17.1 per cent in the US, according to World Bank figures. In entertainment, movie box office revenue soared by 49 per cent in the first half of this year.
世界銀行(World Bank)數據顯示，2013年中國醫療支出增長了12.6%，但是仍然僅佔GDP的5.6%，相比之下日本和美國的醫療支出佔比分別爲10.3%和17.1%。在娛樂業，今年上半年中國電影票房收入猛增49%。
Even if services do alleviate the slowdown in China’s domestic economy, the rebalancing will provide little relief to those around the world who relied on the country’s old growth model.
即便服務業確實減輕了中國國內經濟的放緩程度，但對於世界各地依賴於中國傳統增長模式的經濟體來說，中國經濟再平衡進程不會給它們帶來安慰。
“Strength in the service sector is unlikely to provide much support for countries that export commodities to China,” Mark Spiegel, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, wrote in a recent report.
“中國服務業的強勁不太可能爲那些向中國出口大宗商品的國家提供多大支持，”舊金山聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的經濟學家馬克施皮格爾(Mark Spiegel)在最近一份報告中寫道。
