今年中國經濟將增長6.5% ADB forecasts 6.5% China growth for

China’s economic growth will only reach the lower end of its own projections and its slowdown risks weighing on the rest of Asia, according to a report from the Asian Development Bank.

亞洲開發銀行（Asian Development Bank，簡稱：亞開行）的一份報告顯示，今年中國經濟增速將只能達到該國自身預測區間的底端，而且中國增長的放緩可能會拖累亞洲其餘地區。

The ADB’s flagship Asia Development Outlook 2016 forecast that China’s economy would grow at 6.5 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent next year, compared with Beijing’s expectations of between 6.5 and 7 per cent for 2016 and an average of 6.5 per cent over the next five years.

亞開行旗艦經濟報告《2016年亞洲發展展望》(Asia Development Outlook 2016)預計，今年中國經濟將增長6.5%，明年增長6.3%。而中國政府對今年經濟增速的預期爲6.5%到7%，對今後五年平均增速的預期爲6.5%。

The slowdown in the region’s biggest economy has knocked as much as 0.3 percentage points off the outlook for developing Asian economies because of the region’s trade and supply chain links, the ADB said.

亞開行表示，考慮到亞洲的貿易和供應鏈聯繫，這個亞洲最大經濟體的增長減速可能拖累亞洲地區整體經濟0.3個百分點。

“[China’s] growth moderation and [the] uneven global recovery are weighing down overall growth in Asia,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB chief economist, who added that in spite of this, the region would still contribute more than 60 per cent of global growth this year.

亞開行首席經濟學家魏尚進表示：“中國經濟增速放緩和全球復甦的不平衡抑制了亞洲的整體經濟增長。”他還補充說，儘管面臨這些壓力，該地區仍將貢獻全球經濟增長的60%以上。

the ADB said the country’s wider economic impact was still largely limited to the region, with any negative effects of the country’s slowdown elsewhere in the world offset by gains from lower commodity prices.

亞開行表示，中國產生的更廣泛經濟影響仍主要侷限於亞洲地區，因爲中國增長放緩對全球其他地區產生的任何負面影響，都會被大宗商品價格走低帶來的好處所抵消。

Should China experience the sort of hard landing that investors feared in January — classed as “unlikely” by the ADB — the global economy would be hit much harder, knocking up to 1.8 percentage points off worldwide growth.

若中國遭遇今年1月投資者所擔心的那種硬着陸（亞開行認爲這種情景“不太可能”發生），全球經濟受到的衝擊將會大得多，最多可將全球增速抹去1.8個百分點。

The report also highlighted the complexity of China’s economic relationships in the region as supply chains evolve. While manufacturing powerhouses such as South Korea have lost market share as China has moved up the value chain, others such as Vietnam have benefited from taking over lower-end production from its giant neighbour.

這份報告還強調了隨着供應鏈不斷演化，中國在亞洲地區經濟關係的複雜程度。隨着中國向價值鏈高端攀爬，韓國等製造業強國的市場份額有所萎縮。與此同時，通過從中國這個龐大鄰國手中接過低端生產，越南等國家受益匪淺。

China will continue to struggle as it shifts from investment-led growth to an economy where consumption plays a larger role, the ADB said. Last year services and consumption accounted for 4.6 percentage points of China’s overall growth, up from 3.7 in 2014.

亞開行表示，中國將繼續努力從投資拉動型增長模式向消費發揮更大作用的增長模式轉型。去年，中國經濟整體增速有4.6個百分點來自服務業和消費，比2014年的3.7個百分點要高。

However, the ADB warned that governments around the region, including China, needed to focus far more on boosting productivity.

不過，亞開行警告稱，包括中國在內的亞洲各國的政府，需要以比以前大得多的力度聚焦於提高生產率。

“Potential growth depends on both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity,” said Mr Wei. “While altering demographics is not something that can be accomplished within a few years, many developing economies still have tremendous room to use structural reforms to remove distortions in the labour, capital and land markets‎.”

魏尚進表示：“潛在經濟增長率取決於勞動力的增加和勞動生產率的提高。雖然不可能在短短几年內改變人口結構，但許多發展中國家仍有巨大空間通過結構性改革消除勞動力、資本和土地市場的扭曲。