雙語財經新聞 第12期:全球貨幣的新選擇
The International monetary system needs fundamental reform. It is not the cause of the recent imbalances and current instability in the global economy, but it certainly has been ineffective in addressing them. So a broad set of reforms is required, beginning with an immediate expansion of the current system of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), or money that can be issued by the International Monetary Fund. And here the Groupof 20 leading nations must take the lead.
John Maynard Keynes once proposed a global currency, the Bancor, to be placed at the centre of the internationsd monetary system. The idea never caught on. Instead we now have a system dominated by holdings of U.S. dollars. This has several disadvantages. The first is it creates a global recessionary1 bias during and after financial crises because it places the burden of adjusting to payments imbalances on nations which run a deficit2.
約翰_梅納德?凱恩斯曾經提議在國際貨幣體系的核心位置創建一種全球貨 幣——“班科這種觀點從未流行開來。相反，我們目前的體系是以持有美元爲主 導的。這有幾大缺點。首先，它會在金融危機期間及之後造成一種全球衰退傾 向——因爲它讓赤字國家承擔了就支付失衡進行調整的負擔。The second is the tension it creates, due to the use of a national currency, the dollar, as the global currency. This can lead to global volatility asa result of growing U.S. current account deficits. These deficits are necessary, for creating sufficient global liquidity, but they also generate excessive Indebtedness3, both external and internal. So if the U.S. were to shrink its deficit too quickly, a deficiency of supply of the global reserve currency could result
其次，當前體系會造成壓力，因爲它使用了一個國家的貨幣(美元)作爲全球貨 幣。隨着美國經常賬戶赤字日漸增長，這可能導致全球波動。就創造足夠的全球流 動性而言，這些赤字是必要的，但它們也會造成過度的負債^一在國內及國際層面 皆是如此。因此,如果美國過於迅速地削減赤字’就可能導致全球儲備貨幣供應吃 緊。
Responses to global financial instability creates the third problem, where developing countries have accumulated large reserves as “self-insurance” against a future balance of payments crisis. These protect them during crises, but also add to global imbalances.
對全球金融不穩定的迴應引發了第三個問題一發展中國家累積了鉅額儲 備，作爲應對未來國際收支危機的“自我保險”。這些儲備在危機發生時能夠提供保 護，但同時也加劇了全球失衡。In the late 1960s a more limited global currency was created: the SDRs, issued by the IMF when enough member countries agree. The largest such issue equivalent to $250bn, and suggested by the G20 in April 2009 was an enlightened response to the dramatic collapse4 in international private lending after the global financial crisis. It helped soften the negative impact of the crisis on growth.
20世紀60年代末，國際貨幣基金組織創造了一種更有限的全球貨幣——在獲 得足夠多成員國同意的情況下，發佈了特別提款權(亦稱紙黃金)。2009年4月，由 G20II議、國際貨幣基金組織發行的最大規模的紙黃金(相當於2500^美元），是對 全球金融危機之後國際私人信貸崩盤做出的明智迴應，有助於減輕危機對增長造 成的負面影響。Now, in the same way, the global role of SDRs should be increased, both through new issues and a bigger role for the rights in IMF lending. New SDR issues could be introduced in times of declines in private capital flows or large falls of global commodity prices. These would increase the ability of current account deficit countries, such as Pakistan or Egypt, if they were hit by an external shock.
現在，以同樣的方式提高紙黃金的全球地位，既通過發行新的紙黃金，也通過 提升紙黃金在國際貨幣基金組織貸款中所佔的比重。國際貨幣基金組織可以在私 人資本流動下降、或全球大宗商品價格暴跌之際發行新的紙黃金。如果巴基斯坦或 埃及等經常賬戶赤字國家遭受外部衝擊，上述發行將會增強它們的抵禦能力。In practical terms the G20 should encourage the IMF to issue a significant amount of new SDRs during the next three years, up to a value of $390bn a year. Such a move would have a number of benefits. It would reduce the problem of recessionary bias, by allowing central banks to exchange SDRs for hard currency, such as dollars or euros, and use it to finance higher imports. It would partially replace countries need to accumulate reserves. Given its relatively small scale, more SDRs would also help to sustain and accelerate recovery of the world economy, without leading to inflationary pressures. And by reducing the need for countries to set aside foreign exchange reserves, it would also facilitate some reduction in global imbalances.
在實踐操作中，G20應鼓勵國際貨幣基金組織在未來3年發行大量的新紙黃 金，每年高達3900^美元。此舉有多種益處。通過允許各國央行用硬通貨(如美元或 歐元)來交換紙黃金，並以此爲更高的進口融資，它將緩解衰退傾向的問題，還將在 一定程度上取代各國累積外匯儲備的需求。鑑於發行規模相對較小,更多的紙黃金 還將有助於在不引發通脹壓力的情況下，維繫並加速全球經濟的復甦。同時，通過 降低各國留出外匯儲備的必要性，這還將有利於在一定程度上減輕全球失衡。New measures to increase the effectiveness of SDRs themselves are also needed. One way would be for the IMF to use these SDRs to finance lending to countries that need short-term financing, due to balance of payments constraints, as happened recently in Greece and Ireland. Eventually SDRs could become the main，or even the only, mechanism5 for IMF financing.
此外，還需要採取一些新舉措,以提高紙黃金本身的效力。方法之一是國際貨 幣基金組織利用這些紙黃金，向那些由於國際收支方面的限制而需要短期融資的 國家提供貸款,近來希臘和愛爾蘭就發生了這樣的情況。最終,紙黃金可能會成爲 國際貨幣基金組織的主要、甚至是唯一的融資機制。Further, when crises occur in many countries simultaneously, as happened, for instance, during the 1998 east Asian crisis, IMF lending could be totally financed by new SDR issues in unlimited amounts. If and when the world economy recovered or boomed, SDR issues could then cease, or even be reabsorbed. Thus the IMF would have a greater role in creating official liquidity, in a way that curbed6 both recessionary and inflationary trends at different times.
此外,當多個國家同時爆發危機時，例如1998年東亞危機的情況，國際貨幣基 金組織貸款可能完全由無限量的新發行紙黃金提供融資。如果當全球經濟復甦或 出現繁榮時，可能會停止紙黃金髮行，甚至收回一部分。這樣,國際貨幣基金組織將 以一種在不同時期同時限制衰退和通脹趨勢的方式，在創造官方流動性方面發揮 更大的作用。All of this would make a contribution to enhancing global stability, without altering in any fundamental way existing monetary arrangements. And the dollar would continue as the main currency for private transactions, making this change more acceptable to the U.S..
所有這一切都將有利於增強全球穩定，同時不會根本性地改變現有的貨幣安 排。美元將繼續作爲私營部門交易的主要貨幣，從而使這一變革更容易爲美國所接The G20 showed its effectiveness in responding to the financial crisis. The question today is, with the passing of the worst and emergence of large divergences in perspectives, can the G20 again demonstrate the leadership the world needs? A swift expansion of the SDR system would show this continued leadership. More importantly, it would also ensure greater stability and more sustained growth in the world economy.
在應對此次金融危機中，G20顯示出了自身的有效性。眼下的問題是，隨着危 機最嚴重時期的過去、以及各方看法出現重大分歧，G20能否再次展示這個世界所 需要的領導力?紙黃金體系的迅速擴張，將展現這種持續的領導力。更爲重要的是， 這還將確保全球經濟更強的穩定性和更爲持續的增長。
