中國懷疑論者幾家歡喜幾家愁

China’s stock market freefall may have sparked fear across the world’s trading floors, but for a small group of contrarian hedge funds the recent turmoil has been met by a quiet sense of vindication.

中國股市自由落體式下跌或許在世界各地的交易場所都引起了擔憂，但對一小部分採取反向投資策略的對衝基金來說，最近的動盪讓他們悄然而生“自己判斷對了”的感覺。

For several years a group of hedge fund managers have wearily penned quarterly jeremiads to their investors warning of a growing bubble in emerging markets and the risks that China posed to the world economy. For some, the eventual payback has been worth it.

多年來，一些對衝基金經理費盡力氣在每個季度的投資者報告中發表長篇大論的悲觀預測，警告新興市場的泡沫日益吹大，以及中國將會給全球經濟帶來風險。對某些對衝基金經理來說，最終的回報令他們的這種努力物有所值。

“The last two months have been really just like shooting fish in a barrel,” one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager exults. “It doesn’t happen that often but if you have been short China you have just made some seriously easy money.”

香港的一位對衝基金經理興沖沖地說道：“過去兩個月真的就像是甕中捉鱉。這種情況並不常發生，但如果你之前做空中國，錢就來得非常容易。”

Amiya Capital, an emerging markets-dedicated hedge fund that first started fretting over China’s debt build-up in 2008, is one such fund.

Amiya Capital就是這樣一家基金。這家對衝基金專注於新興市場，在2008年開始對中國債務增加的現象產生擔憂。

“Our thesis is finally playing out, but it’s taken a while,” says Michael Wang, an analyst at Amiya. “We’ve been aware of the situation in China for a while, but it seems the rest of the world is only now getting to grips with how dire things are getting there.”

Amiya分析師Michael Wang表示：“我們的觀點終於得到印證，但這花了些時間。我們對中國的情況已掌握了一段時間，但全世界其他人似乎到現在纔開始明白那裏的情況有多麼可怕。”

Amiya Capital expects China’s economy and markets to continue to sag as it undergoes a necessary but bumpy rebalancing, and is betting primarily against currencies and companies that are hurt by this process — a lucrative trade in recent months.

Amiya Capital預計，在中國推進必要但不平穩的再平衡進程之際，中國的經濟和市場將繼續下行。該公司正大力做空在這個進程中遭受衝擊的貨幣和公司——這類交易在最近幾個月獲利頗豐。

Yet while the collapse in the Chinese stock market and mounting concerns over its economic health has given sceptics a reason to feel cheerful, correct predictions about large macroeconomic trends are no help unless trades to profit from them are timed perfectly.

然而，儘管中國股市暴跌，中國經濟健康狀況也日益令人擔憂，這讓懷疑論者有理由高興，但除非你能夠完美把握交易時機並從中獲利，否則正確預測宏觀經濟大勢其實並沒有什麼用。

Anyone who has put on trades expecting a market crash in recent years has been made to suffer, given that being early is often the same as being wrong in the money management industry.

在資金管理行業中，“早”往往等同於“錯”，在最近幾年抱着中國市場將崩盤的預期進行交易的人遭受了損失。

“The last five years has been stock prices up, bond markets up. It has been frustrating,” says one hedge fund manager who manages billions of dollars in assets. “This is the end of that story. Markets adjust very quickly on the way down.”

一位管理着數十億美元資產的對衝基金經理表示：“過去5年一直是股市上漲，債市上漲。這令人沮喪。這個故事到了尾聲。市場迅速向下調整。”

Over a year ago one London-based investor, the bespectacled and braces-wearing Crispin Odey, reversed a previously bullish view on global markets to predict an oncoming economic crisis led by a pronounced slowdown in China’s economy.

一年多前，一位戴着眼鏡和牙套的倫敦投資者克里斯平攠迪(Crispin Odey)轉變了以前看好全球市場的觀點，預計全球即將爆發由中國經濟顯著放緩引發的經濟危機。

Declaring in January how “this down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years” Mr Odey began to take out large bets against companies he believed were exposed to China and other emerging markets.

奧迪在今年1月宣稱，“這個下行週期很可能一百年後也不會被遺忘”，他開始大舉做空被其認爲在中國和其他新興市場有風險敞口的公司。

In April he was forced into a painful U-turn after a big bet against the value of currencies exposed to China went wrong and cost the hedge fund manager almost 20 per cent of the value of his fund.

今年4月，在大舉做空對中國有風險敞口的貨幣出錯、使得這位對衝基金經理管理的基金價值縮水近20%之後，奧迪被迫進行了痛苦的一百八十度大轉彎。

Other hedge funds that specialise in short selling, or taking bets that share prices of certain companies will fall, have similarly struggled to turn their bearish analysis into trading profits.

其他專門做空或者押注某些公司股價下跌的對衝基金同樣很難憑藉他們的悲觀分析從交易中獲利。

Jim Chanos, the American short seller famed for helping detect accounting fraud at Enron, has for several years predicted that China was in the midst of a huge, debt-fuelled bubble that would result in brutal consequences.

以幫助發現安然(Enron)會計欺詐而聞名的美國做空者吉姆夏諾斯(Jim Chanos)多年來一直預測，中國正陷入債務引發的巨大泡沫當中，這將導致可怕的後果。

But years of central bank-led stimulus have challenged Mr Chanos and other short sellers. With so much money sloshing around markets bad companies have tended to rise alongside good ones, meaning both pessimists and stock pickers have lost much of their edge. A spokeswoman for Mr Chanos declined to comment on whether Kynikos Associates, his hedge fund, had profited from the recent China sell-off.

但這些年來，中國由央行主導推出的刺激政策讓夏諾斯和其他做空者的預測落了空。由於大量資金遊蕩在市場，壞公司的股價往往與好公司一起上漲，這意味着無論是悲觀者還是選股者都失去了許多優勢。夏諾斯的一位發言人拒絕就其對衝基金Kynikos Associates是否從最近中國市場的暴跌中獲利置評。

“When everything goes up at the same time it can be very frustrating for managers who are skilled at betting against bad companies and picking out good ones,” says Alper Ince, a managing director at Paamco, an investor in hedge funds.

對衝基金投資機構Paamco董事總經理阿爾珀因斯(Alper Ince)表示：“當所有公司的股價同時上漲時，那些擅長做空壞公司並挑選好公司的經理會覺得非常沮喪。”

Another London-based hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, had began warning about the likelihood of a Chinese slowdown since 2009, setting up a specific fund to profit from this and making strong returns from the trade in 2011.

另一位倫敦對衝基金經理休亨德利(Hugh Hendry)自2009年就開始對中國經濟放緩的可能性提出警告，並專門設立了一個基金希望從中獲利，結果在2011年的交易中獲得不菲回報。

Yet Mr Hendry, who was one of the earliest hedge fund managers to make a large, concentrated bet against China, also reversed his stance, buying up large positions in Chinese stock futures and declaring earlier last month: “The tail risk of China blowing up, in our view, has gone because of the power of central banking”.

然而，亨德利後來也轉變了立場，大舉買入中國股指期貨，他在7月表示：“在我們看來，由於中央銀行實力強大，中國市場崩盤的尾部風險已不復存在。”亨德利是最早大規模集中做空中國的對衝基金經理之一。

Even with the Chinese market’s plunge earlier this week, there are still fund managers who suggest it may be premature for the bears to celebrate.

即便上週中國市場暴跌，也仍有基金經理表示，現在還不是空頭慶祝的時候。

Stephen Jen, the head of currency hedge fund SLJ Capital, frets that the “situation is getting a little bit out of control” in China. However, he argues that the country’s economic deceleration is healthy, and will not impact locals as much as some observers fear.

對衝基金SLJ Macro的貨幣主管任永力(Stephen Jen)擔心，中國的“情況有點失控”。不過他認爲，中國的經濟減速是健康的，其對國內居民的影響不會像某些觀察人士擔心的那樣大。

“There are going to be some hedge funds who are very pleased about what has happened [and] there will be others who have lost money,” says one US-based hedge fund investor. “But the most pain will probably be for people who called it too soon and changed their minds.”

美國一位對衝基金投資者表示：“有一些對衝基金會對近期的情況感到非常開心，也會有一些基金虧了錢。但那些太早看空後來卻改變想法的人可能是最痛苦的。”