證監會聚焦A股灰色地帶 Beijing targets causes of boom and bust

Emergency government measures designed to curb a free fall in the Chinese stock market last week have apparently succeeded in stabilising the market. Now regulators have turned their attention to the root causes of the boom-bust cycle.

中國政府上週爲遏止國內股市暴跌而採取的緊急措施顯然已經成功穩住了市場。現在，監管機構已經將注意力轉向大起大落週期的根本原因。

Late on Sunday the China Securities Regulatory Commission warned brokerages not to open their trading systems to so-called fund-matching companies that distribute grey-market margin loans to investors, with few safeguards. Such lending occurs outside the regulatory framework that governs margin finance by brokerages.

上週日晚，中國證券監督管理委員會(CSRC)警告券商不要向所謂的配資公司開放其交易系統。配資公司向投資者經銷灰色市場保證金貸款，幾乎沒有任何保障措施，而且此類放貸不在規範券商提供保證金貸款的監管框架內。

“Leverage by itself isn’t necessarily threatening,” says Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank advising the government. “The problem is that it’s not transparent. Regulators can’t see what’s going on. That’s very dangerous.”

“槓桿本身不一定是威脅，”向政府提供諮詢的智庫——中國社科院金融研究所的研究員劉煜輝表示，“問題在於它不透明。監管機構看不到實際情況。那非常危險。”

Mr Liu says the CSRC’s move “should have been done when the index was at 3,000-4,000”. The Shanghai Composite peaked at 5,179 on June 12 before dropping below 3,500 last Wednesday.

劉煜輝表示，中國證監會此舉“應該在股指介於3000點和4000點之間時就完成”。上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)在6月12日觸及5179點的頂峯，上週三則跌破3500點水平。

The effect of the CSRC’s action has been swift. Xunqianwang, a Shanghai-based online fund-matching company whose Chinese name translates to “Search for Money Net”, told clients the CSRC’s action had forced it to quit the business. , a peer-to-peer fund-matching company, made a similar announcement yesterday.

中國證監會的行動很快產生了影響。總部位於上海的在線配資公司“尋錢網”通知客戶，證監會的舉動已迫使其退出股票配資借款業務。P2P配資公司“米牛”()昨日發表了類似的公告。

Analysts agree the crackdown is necessary to prevent excessive risk-taking and increase transparency. In the short term, however, it could cut off a source of liquidity to the market, just as Chinese stocks have begun to regain their footing with the help of a ban on selling by big shareholders and hundreds of billions of renminbi in government funds.

分析師們同意，這一打擊是必要的，它有助於增加透明度，防止過度冒險。但就短期而言，它可能會在中國股市剛開始回暖之際掐斷一部分流動性。支撐中國股市回暖的是禁止大股東售股和政府投入數千億元人民幣資金。

CSRC even suggested on Sunday that grey-market margin lending had contributed to the recovery of stock prices late last week. “In recent days, as the market has regained stability, these illegal practices have staged a comeback,” the agency said. The official China Securities Journal similarly reported last week that banks had restarted umbrella trusts in response to demand from investors hoping to bet on a rebound.

中國證監會上週日甚至暗示，灰色市場的保證金貸款對上週晚些時候的股價復甦作出了貢獻。“近日隨着市場回穩，這些違法現象又出現了捲土重來的勢頭，”該機構表示。官方的《中國證券報》上週發表了類似報道，稱一些銀行已重啓傘形信託，以迴應投資者希望押注股市反彈的需求。

The market extended its gains yesterday, suggesting that so far the restriction on grey-market funding has not hindered the recovery. But analysts say the CSRC will seek to strike a balance between encouraging fund inflows in the short term and promoting deleveraging over the medium term.

中國股市昨日延續漲勢，似乎表明限制灰色市場資金的措施迄今尚未妨礙股市復甦。但分析師們表示，中國證監會將力求在鼓勵短期資金流入和促進中期去槓桿化之間達到恰當平衡。

“It’s like a flood on the riverbanks,” says Zhang Qi of Haitong Securities in Shanghai. “If the water surges to a high level, you can’t channel it away all at once. If the water retreats too fast, it may wash away the lowlands.”

“這就像洪水衝擊河岸，”上海海通證券(Haitong Securities)的張琪表示。“如果水位突然漲得很高，你不能一下子把這些水都引向別處。如果水退得太快，它可能會沖刷低地。”

This approach explains why, even as it clamps down on grey-market margin lenders, the CSRC recently loosened rules on brokerage margin finance into the market. Brokerage margin loans outstanding have fallen sharply from a peak of Rmb2.4tn on June 18 to Rmb1.4tn ($225bn) on Friday.

這種方法解釋了中國證監會近日爲什麼在打擊灰色市場保證金貸款的同時，放鬆了針對券商保證金融資進入市場的規則。融資餘額已大幅減少，從6月18日2.4萬億元人民幣的峯值降至上週五的1.4萬億元人民幣（合2250億美元）。

This “open the front door, close the back door” approach reflects the important differences between regulated and unregulated margin finance. Since they were not subject to regulation, fund-matching companies permitted higher leverage and lower barriers to entry. While brokerages offer two renminbi in credit for every one renminbi of the client’s own money, Xunqianwang offered investors leverage as high as six to one.

這種“開前門，關後門”的做法，體現了有監管和無監管保證金融資之間的重要區別。由於不受監管，配資公司允許較高的槓桿率和較低的進入門檻。券商提供兩倍於客戶自有資金的信貸，而“尋錢網”之前向投資者提供高達六倍的槓桿率。

Higher leverage meant stock prices did not have to fall far to trigger forced selling. At a 2:1 leverage ratio, stocks could fall by a third before hitting mandatory stop-loss thresholds. At 6:1, the trigger may be only 14 per cent.

較高的槓桿率意味着，股價不需要大幅下跌，就會觸發強制拋售。若槓桿率爲2：1，股價可能要下跌三分之一，纔會觸及強制性的止損門檻。若槓桿率爲6：1，股價下跌14%就可能觸及門檻。

Haitong estimates that Rmb500bn-Rmb1tn in margin funds have flowed into the market outside regulated channels, on top of the Rmb2.3tn in normal margin loans from brokerages.

據海通證券估算，在監管渠道以外已有5000億至1萬億元人民幣的保證金資金流入股市，而券商提供的正常保證金貸款總計達到2.3萬億元人民幣。

Regulators have also turned their attention to technical developments that enabled the margin boom. Most fund-matching companies relied on a cloud-based software program called Homs, developed by Hundsun Technologies, a financial technology company whose largest shareholder is Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba.

監管者們也將注意力轉向促成保證金熱潮的技術發展。多數配資公司依賴基於雲計算的軟件程序Homs，這款軟件是由金融科技公司恆生電子(Hundsun Technologies)開發的，而該公司的最大股東是阿里巴巴(Alibaba)創始人馬雲(Jack Ma)。

The CSRC did not mention Hundsun or Homs by name but the agency clearly had Homs in mind when it warned brokerages to verify the true identities of those trading through their accounts.

中國證監會並未點恆生電子或Homs的名，但該機構在警告券商覈實通過其賬戶進行交易的人的真實身份時，顯然想的是Homs。

Hundsun defended itself from accusations that its product had contributed to the stock market bust. “It’s not objective or rational to say Homs was the major force of the stock market turmoil,” the company said.

針對有關其產品加劇股市大跌的指控，恆生電子爲自己作了辯護。“說Homs是導致股市震盪的主要力量是不客觀、不理性的，”該公司表示。