國際預計石油價格戰將不了了之

In the town where Napoleon ended his advance into Russia in 1812 and began his long retreat, his opponents put up a plaque reading “end of offensive”. The Centre International de Conférences d’Alger in Algiers, where Opec ministers agreed a change of strategy last month, deserves a similar memorial to the oil price war that began in 2014.

1812年，在拿破崙(Napoleon)結束對俄羅斯的突進、開始長途撤退的城鎮，他的敵人豎起了一塊紀念匾，上面寫着“進攻的終結”。上月，歐佩克(OPEC)成員國的部長們在阿爾及爾的阿爾及爾國際會議中心就改變策略達成一致，這裏也值得立起一塊相同的紀念碑，紀念2014年開始的石油價格戰。

The cut in Opec’s oil production announced by the ministers has yet to be implemented. But merely by agreeing they needed to pump less oil, the cartel conceded that its attempt to force rival producers out of the market is not working. The oil price war may not be over but it looks as though fortunes are shifting.

歐佩克部長們宣佈的石油減產還未開始實施。但僅僅是就它們需要減產達成一致，這個產油國聯盟就已經承認，它們把競爭生產方擠出市場的嘗試並未奏效。油價戰爭或許並未終結，但看起來風向正在發生改變。

When Saudi Arabia, Opec’s de facto leader, sent prices tumbling in 2014 by refusing to cut crude production in the face of a growing global glut, some expected that the US industry would swiftly collapse. Since 2008, oil production in the US has been transformed by advances in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and horizontal drilling, which made it viable to extract crude from previously unprofitable shale rock. But US producers had relatively high costs, and had been unable to cover their capital spending from their cash flows, relying on a steady supply of debt and equity capital to stay in business.

2014年，歐佩克事實上的領導者沙特阿拉伯在面對日益加劇的全球供應過剩時，拒絕削減原油產量，從而造成油價暴跌。當時有人預計美國石油業將迅速崩潰。此前，自2008年起，水力壓裂和水平鑽井技術的進步轉變了美國石油生產的面貌，能夠從以往無利可圖的頁岩中提取原油。但美國石油生產商成本相對較高，無法用現金流來覆蓋它們的資本支出，需要依靠穩定的債務和股權資本供應來維持業務。

Yet far from collapsing, the US shale industry has ridden out the downturn in oil prices and over the summer has even started to expand again. The frackers have saved themselves partly thanks to their ability to evolve. Hardship has been a spur to innovation and production costs have dropped by about 40 per cent since 2014.

然而，美國頁岩油行業不僅沒有崩潰，還安然度過了油價下跌期，甚至從2016年夏天開始再度擴張。利用水力壓裂法的石油生產商能夠保全自身，部分要歸功於它們的演變能力。困境激發了創新，自2014年以來它們的生產成本降低了大約40%。

The other critical factor has been the strength and depth of US capital markets, supported by a Federal Reserve stance that has encouraged risk-taking.

另一個關鍵因素是美國資本市場的實力和深度，還有美聯儲(Fed)鼓勵冒險的立場給予支持。

When the price war began, it was obvious that the know-how for shale oil could not be uninvented. What Saudi Arabia could do was cut off the flow of investment into US shale and other higher-cost reserves. That plan met some success: in the past couple of years investment in the oil industry has slumped worldwide, and the number of oil rigs running in the US dropped 80 per cent between October 2014 and May 2016.

價格戰開始時就很明顯的是，頁岩油領域技術訣竅的發明不可能被逆轉。沙特能做的就是切斷對美國頁岩油和其他成本較高的石油儲量的投資流。該計劃取得了一些成功：過去兩年世界各地對石油業的投資都出現了暴跌；從2014年10月到2016年5月，在美國作業的石油鑽井的數量下降了80%。

As bad as conditions were, however, capital never stopped flowing to the US industry. This has been a record year for equity sales by smaller North American exploration and production companies. Bond sales and bank lending have slowed but the more financially secure companies have been able still to borrow.

然而，儘管情況很糟糕，但資本從未停止流向美國石油業。今年是北美地區規模較小的石油勘探和生產公司股權銷售創紀錄的一年。債券發售和銀行借貸已經放緩，但財務狀況更良好的公司依然能夠借款。

Even markets that had been frozen are starting to thaw. Last week Extraction Oil & Gas held a successful initial public offering, the first for a US oil production company since the summer of 2014. Several other IPOs are being prepared.

甚至此前凍結的市場也開始解凍。上週，Extraction Oil & Gas成功地進行了首次公開發行(IPO)，這是自2014年夏天以來首家進行IPO的美國石油生產公司。還有幾個IPO正在準備之中。

More than 100 North American exploration and production companies have gone bankrupt since the start of 2015 but generally they have been the stragglers with higher debts and higher costs. The stronger companies have survived and are well placed to expand, and the number of oil rigs running in the US is rising again.

自2015年初以來，超過100家北美石油勘探和生產公司破產，但一般來說，這些公司本來就是債務和成本較高的掙扎者。更強大的公司生存了下來，並且處於擴張的有利地位，在美國作業的石油鑽井數量再次上升。

The real financial strain is emerging outside the US: in the economic crises in Venezuela and other Opec members and in the pressure on the dividends of large international companies such as Royal Dutch Shell.

真正的財務壓力在美國以外出現：委內瑞拉和其他歐佩克成員國爆發了經濟危機，像荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)這樣的大型跨國公司的股息正遭受壓力。

Opec’s announcement is a sign that it has sensibly moved past hopes of crushing US shale production and is planning for coexistence. It may be painful for some but it is unavoidable. A strategy that relied on breaking the confidence of US investors, it has turned out, was about as effective as marching on Moscow.

歐佩克的聲明表明，該組織已經理智地放棄過去寄希望於壓垮美國頁岩油生產的立場，而是計劃與之共存。這對某些人來說可能是痛苦的，但也是不可避免的。事實表明，一個依賴於摧毀美國投資者信心的戰略，和當年拿破崙進軍莫斯科的戰略一樣效果不佳。