Lex專欄 危機對萬科或許意味着機會

Clichés are often true, and at the moment this one is apt: the Chinese word for crisis also implies opportunity. On Friday, Hong Kong- and China-listed property developer China Vanke announced first-half results. Revenues rose one quarter — mostly on volume growth; average prices were down just shy of 3 per cent.

陳詞濫調中往往蘊含着真知灼見，此時此刻下面這個詞就很符合這個觀點：中文中的“危機”一詞也包含“機會”的意思。週一，在香港和中國內地兩地上市的房地產開發商萬科(China Vanke)發佈了上半年業績。營收增長近四分之一——主要是拜銷售面積增長所賜；銷售均價則下降了約3%。

Along with peers China Overseas Land and Investment and China Resources Land, Vanke trades on single-digit multiples of 2015 earnings, for growth in the low to mid teens. Cheap? That depends where we are in the cycle. Since April, property prices have merely stopped falling. If they resume their tumble, the low multiple will prove painfully deceptive.

與中國海外發展(China Overseas Land and Investment)和華潤置地(China Resources Land)兩家同行一樣，按2015年盈利（預期增幅13%至16%吧）計算，萬科股票的市盈率爲個位數。便宜嗎？這要看我們處在週期中的什麼位置。今年4月以來，房價只是停止了下跌。如果房價恢復下滑的話，低市盈率將被證明極具欺騙性。

China’s economy looks shaky, with last week’s adjustment to the renminbi taken as a sign that it could be worse than feared. Still, macro data have been poor for some time — yet Vanke’s numbers were far from terrible. This year, supply has fallen much more sharply than demand. Figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show completed residential projects’ gross floor area (GFA) down 16 per cent year on year, even as the GFA of residential sales rose 7 per cent. The GFA for new projects commenced — which would become available in about a year — has fallen by nearly a fifth. Land purchases have collapsed by a third.

中國經濟看起來很疲弱，上週對人民幣的調整被看作一個信號：中國經濟狀況可能比人們擔憂的還要糟。不過，雖然一段時間以來的宏觀經濟數據表現不佳，但萬科的業績可是一點都不糟糕。今年以來，比起需求，供給的降幅要大得多。中國國家統計局的數據顯示，竣工住宅項目總建築面積(GFA)同比減少了16%，而同期銷售的住宅總建築總面積卻增長了7%。新開工項目總建築面積下降了近五分之一。開發商拿地數量銳減了三分之一。

Some of this is due to demand and supply mismatches: inventories in third tier cities remain high, curbing appetite for new projects. More vibrant top tier cities, such as Shenzhen which has led the turnround, look set to become supply constrained due to a scarce, and thus expensive, land bank.

造成這種局面的部分原因在於供需不匹配：三線城市庫存仍然很高，抑制了開發商上馬新項目的興趣。而在交易更加活躍的一線城市，例如已率先扭轉局面的深圳，由於土地稀缺又貴，供應勢必將吃緊。

This lends itself to a bullish thesis for sector leaders. COLI, China Resources Land and Vanke have been disciplined with their balance sheets. Vanke’s net debt to equity is a mere 16 per cent. As the renminbi weakens, offshore debt may have lost its appeal but onshore demand is healthy, with about $14bn of renminbi debt raised so far this year. Last week, regulators approved Vanke to issue $1.4bn in bonds.

這爲行業龍頭提供了樂觀的理由。中國海外發展、華潤置地和萬科一直都嚴格管理資產負債表。萬科的淨債務與股東權益的比率只有16%。隨着人民幣走軟，離岸債務可能已經失去吸引力，但在岸需求還很健康——今年迄今共發行了約140億美元的人民幣債券。上週，監管機構批准了萬科發行14億美元的債券。

Goldman Sachs figures show the consolidation trend has been accelerating. In the year to July, the top 17 developers increased their market share to 22 per cent, up 5 percentage points and the biggest gain since at least 2007. The crisis is not the same for everyone; that is why it will create opportunities.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的數據顯示，房地產業的整合趨勢一直在加速。在截至7月的一年中，中國17家最大開發商的市場份額擴大到22%，上升5個百分點，是至少自2007年以來的最大增幅。危機對每個人來說是不一樣的，這就是爲什麼它能夠創造出機會。