金融業應迎接科技革命
Over the past year, I have come across several cases where the forces of financial democratisation are redefining the outer edges of the financial service industry. Enabled by disruptive technologies and post-crisis mindsets, they also have the potential to improve the broader intermediation process that brings together sources and uses of productive capital. It is part of a broader phenomenon that has dominated the technology sector and is playing out in media and elsewhere. It is one that requires adjustments on the part of traditional institutions and the authorities that regulate them.
The democratisation of finance comes in many forms. A notable one is the use of “peer-to-peer” and direct lending platforms to bypass costly intermediaries. These link borrowers and lenders in cost efficient ways. and are among the changes that are reshaping interactions and empowering individuals. Driven by the digital revolution, the y encourage entrants with greater cognitive diversity, including a tilt in favour of technological disruption.
金融民主化有多種形式。一種值得關注的形式，是使用個人對個人（peer-to-peer，簡稱P2P）和直接貸款平臺，繞開費用昂貴的中介機構。這些平臺以低成本的方式爲借款人和貸款人牽線搭橋。這些變化正在重塑人們的互動方式，並增強個人賦權。在數字革命的推動下，它們使參與者的認知更具多樣性，包括支持技術性顛覆。No wonder more tech entrepreneurs are taking an interest in the financial sector, which cries out for disruption given its slow adoption of technologies, its profitability, and the difficulties it has had in enabling superior client outcomes. Outside forces also play a role. Banks still face a trust deficit. Regulators, prompted by consumer protection approaches, favour the delivery of financial services that are better aligned with client success.
難怪越來越多的科技企業家對金融行業感興趣。鑑於金融業對技術的緩慢應用、盈利現狀以及在幫助優質客戶實現目標上的困難，這一行業迫切需要顛覆。外部力量也發揮了作用。銀行仍然面臨信任赤字。監管機構在消費者保護政策的推動下，偏愛那些更能助力客戶成功的金融服務活動。
The upside is considerable; and it is powerful when it comes to delivering better financial services to vulnerable segments of the population. Lowering entry barriers widens the sources and uses of loanable funds; and by reducing costs, improves the terms offered to users. The influx of greater cognitive diversity makes the industry more dynamic. Institutions that choose to align their products and services with their client’s success become better positioned for commercial gain.
有利因素很可觀；在向人口中脆弱的人羣提供更好的金融服務方面，這些因素的作用很強大。進入門檻的降低擴大了可貸資金的來源和用途；通過降低成本，可以改善提供給用戶的服務條款。人們的認知更具多樣性，使得這一行業更有活力。將自己的產品和服務與客戶的成功協調一致的機構更能獲得商業回報。Through the incorporation of behavioural finance and data analytics, the disruptive forces also help to wean the industry off its obsession with FICO scores in favour of analytical models more calibrated with financial health. Though these models have yet to be tested through a downturn, more complete pictures of financial mindset and behaviour are emerging.
通過將行爲金融學和數據分析結合起來，這股顛覆性力量也可以幫助金融業擺脫對FICO評分的依賴。FICO評分偏向於主要以財務狀況來校準的分析模型。儘管這些模型還沒有經歷經濟衰退的檢驗，但關於金融思維模式和行爲的更多全貌正在顯現。The disruptions will be embraced by the more progressive institutions but opposed by many traditional incumbents. They require regulatory catch-up. Finance will be following a path already trodden by technology and media. In both cases, technological change has made activities more accessible to broader segments of society. Like these predecessors, the key will be the success that participants have in combining content with platforms.
這些顛覆力量將被更爲進步的機構接受，但也會遭到許多傳統機構的反對。監管必須趕上來。金融業將追隨科技和媒體業已經開闢的道路。在這兩個行業，技術變革都使服務惠及更廣泛的社會階層。像科技和媒體業一樣，關鍵是參與者能成功將內容與平臺結合起來。If finance breaks the content-platform code, the “win-win-win” of financial democratisation will accrue to consumers, the innovative providers, and a system that can deliver better services.
如果金融業能破解內容-平臺的密碼，那麼消費者、創新的服務提供者、以及可以提供更好服務的金融系統，將獲得金融民主化帶來的“三贏”。If it fails to do so, the developments will be contained to the outer edges of an industry that struggles to regain its credibility and contributions to growth.
如果做不到這些，金融民主化的發展將被限定在金融業的外部邊緣，而金融業仍在爲恢復信譽以及貢獻經濟增長而苦苦掙扎。The writer is chief economic adviser to Allianz. He recently took an equity stake in Payoff, a US peer-to-peer lender.
本文作者是安聯集團(Allianz)首席經濟顧問。他最近獲得了美國P2P貸款機構Payoff的部分股權。
