中國漢能股價上漲讓賣空者失算
Short sellers are sitting on potential losses of more than $300m in a little-known Chinese solar company whose stock has soared in spite of their heavy bets to the contrary.
Shares in Hong Kong-listed Hanergy Thin Film Power Group have more than doubled in the past six months, giving the distributor of solar equipment a market capitalisation of almost $15bn — almost as much as the three biggest US solar companies combined.
過去6個月，在香港上市的漢能股價飆升逾一倍，令這家不怎麼出名的太陽能設備分銷商獲得近150億美元的市值，幾乎相當於美國最大3家太陽能企業的市值總和。But several Hong Kong brokers report that hedge funds are still clamouring to borrow the stock, to short sell it: selling borrowed shares in the market in the hope their price will fall, so they can be bought back more cheaply and returned to their original owner. By doing this, short sellers can profit from falling prices — in effect, betting against the company’s shareholders — but lose when prices rise.
然而，香港幾家券商稱，對衝基金仍希望借入然後賣空這家公司的股票。賣出借來的股票，在股價下跌時，賣空者就能以更低價格買回股票，還給最初的股票所有者。這麼做可以從股價下跌中獲利（實際上是與該公司股東對賭），但如果股價上漲，賣空者就會虧損。
Unlike Tianhe and Olam, Hanergy has not been subject to a sharply critical public report. However, a note published by CLSA, the Asia-based brokerage, in December questioned the six-month rise in Hanergy’s share price when the company’s fundamentals had not changed significantly. David Webb, a corporate governance activist in Hong Kong, has also highlighted the listed unit’s reliance on sales to its mainland parent.
與另外兩家遭遇賣空的企業天河化工(Tianhe)和奧蘭公司(Olam)不同，漢能並沒有遭遇猛烈批評該公司的公開報告。然而，總部位於亞洲的券商里昂證券(CLSA)在去年12月發表的報告中，對漢能股價6個月的攀升提出質疑，認爲該公司的基本面因素並未發生巨大變化。香港公司治理維權人士大衛•韋伯(David Webb)還強調了該上市公司對內地母公司銷售的依賴。Hanergy declined to comment on the short selling and analyst concerns.
漢能拒絕就賣空行爲和分析師對它的擔憂發表評論。Gains in the Hanergy share price have led one hedge fund not involved in the short selling to warn that the trade could be “Asia’s Volkswagen” — a reference to the notorious 2008 “short squeeze” when the German carmaker’s stock doubled overnight after Porsche revealed it had used derivatives to take control. That news forced hedge funds to rush to cover short positions from a suddenly far smaller pool of available shares.
漢能股價上漲促使一家並未參與賣空的對衝基金警告稱，漢能有可能成爲“亞洲的大衆(Volkswagen)”，指2008年那起著名的“空頭逼倉”事件。當時在保時捷(Porsche)透露已利用衍生品購得德國汽車製造商大衆控股權後，大衆股價上漲一倍。這一消息促使對衝基金紛紛回補空頭，但可買進的股票數量要少的多，造成大衆股價飆漲。About 73 per cent of the Hong Kong-listed unit’s shares are controlled by Hanergy’s founder, Li Hejun, who is China’s fifth richest man, according to Forbes. More than 90 per cent of Hanergy shares that are available to borrow — about 4 per cent of the total issued shares, according to Markit, the data provider — have been on loan for most of the past year.
漢能在香港上市的股票中，約73%由該公司創始人李河君所有，他在《福布斯》(Forbes)中國富豪榜上排名第五。過去一年大部分時間裏，在可以出借的漢能股票中，有超過90%是貸款借入。數據供應商Markit的數據顯示，可以出借的股票約佔漢能已發行股份的4%。Between the end of August and Wednesday’s market close, Hanergy’s shares had risen from HK$1.27 to HK$2.74 ($0.35). While data for individual short seller positions are not available, assuming all short positions were taken at the beginning of that period, multiplying the average number of shares on loan by the HK$1.47 price rise suggests the short sellers, collectively, would have built up a paper loss of just over $300m.
從去年8月底至本週三收盤，漢能股價從1.27港元漲至2.74港元。目前尚沒有個人賣空者倉位的數據。假設所有空頭倉位是在這段時期的一開始建立的，那麼將貸款借入的股票數量乘以1.47港元的股價漲幅，結果是賣空者的賬面損失總計略超過3億美元。Alternatively, had the short sellers collectively placed their bets just two months ago, they would still be nursing losses of more than $200m.
如果賣空者是在兩個月前建倉的，那麼他們的損失仍超過2億美元。
