中國股市下跌致股民情緒低落

At a stock trading hall for retail investors near People’s Square in Shanghai, the mood is glum.

在上海人民廣場附近一個面向散戶投資者的證券營業廳，人們情緒低沉。

Shenyin Wanguo, like other Chinese brokerages, maintains its hall for investors to hang around, make a few trades and share tips. Among the mostly elderly investors, zest for market speculation goes hand-in-hand with the socialist conviction that the government can and should protect them from risk.

就像中國其他券商那樣，申銀萬國(Shenyin Wanguo)維持這個營業廳是爲了讓投資者流連於股市，做幾筆買賣，交流炒股點子。在這些以老年人爲主的散戶中，對市場投機的狂熱與社會主義信念同時存在，這種信念就是：政府能夠而且應當保護他們免受風險衝擊。

“Even I, an old party member, don’t believe the regulators any more,” says Ms Xu, a 76-year-old retiree.

“即使是身爲老黨員的我，也不再相信監管機構了，”76歲的退休人員徐女士表示。

China’s main stock index lost 5 per cent yesterday, shrugging off an interest-rate cut by the central bank over the weekend. The market has now tumbled 22 per cent since hitting a seven-year high on June 12. Ms Xu blames the securities regulator for approving too many initial public offerings, siphoning demand away from existing shares.

中國主要股指昨日下挫5%，沒有被央行在上週末的降息舉措打動。自6月12日觸及七年高點以來，中國股市已下跌22%。徐女士指責證券監管機構批准了太多的首次公開發行(IPO)，分流了市場對現有股票的需求。

She also lost money punting on internet stocks amid pledges by top leaders to promote the technology sector. ChiNext, the Shenzhen-based start-up index, had more than tripled in the year to June but has since plummeted 30 per cent.

在高層領導人承諾促進科技行業發展的背景下，她投資了網絡股，但賠了錢。位於深圳的創業板(ChiNext)在截至6月的一年裏上漲兩倍多，但自那以來已跌去30%。

“The country is promoting ‘internet plus’ so I bought some internet-themed stocks,” she says. “Their results looked good. But then came a few days of limit-down. Now I’m stuck,” she says, referring to the maximum 10 per cent limit on a stock’s gain or loss on a single day.

“國家在推動‘互聯網+'，所以我買了一些互聯網主題的股票，”她說。“他們的業績看起來很不錯。但後來連續幾天跌停。現在我被套牢了，”她說。跌停指的是股價觸及10%的個股單日下跌限度。

Reflecting the surge of retail investors into the market, trading accounts holding at least some stock hit 68m by the end of May, up 27 per cent from a year earlier, according to clearing houses.

散戶投資者大舉涌入市場的證據之一是，結算所數據顯示，至少持有一些股票的交易賬戶數量在5月底達到6800萬，比一年前增加27%。

Yet analysts say the roots of China’s stock boom, and its unfolding bust, lie not in old-fashioned retail trading halls. Instead, margin lending, which did not exist during China’s last big equity boom and bust, has played a central role.

不過，分析師們表示，無論是中國股市的大漲，還是其眼下經歷的震盪，根源都不在面向散戶的老式營業廳。相反，在中國股市上一輪大漲大跌期間不存在的保證金貸款，這一次起到了核心作用。

Official margin lending through securities brokerages peaked at Rmb2.3tn ($371bn) on June 19, up from just Rmb403bn a year earlier. Goldman Sachs estimates such lending equals 12 per cent of the free-float market capitalisation of margin-eligible stocks, and 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

通過券商進行的正規保證金貸款在6月19日達到2.3萬億元人民幣（合3710億美元）的巔峯，而去年此時只有4030億元人民幣。高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計，此類貸款相當於符合融資交易條件的股票的自由流通股總市值的12%，國內生產總值(GDP)的3.5%。

But even that figure fails to capture the full extent of leveraged stock investing. In addition to brokerages, grey-market margin lending through third parties has pumped an additional Rmb500bn to Rmb1tn in borrowed money into the market, according to estimates from Haitong Securities.

但是，就連上述數字也未能充分反映槓桿炒股的規模。除了券商外，據海通證券(Haitong Securities)測算，通過第三方進行的灰色市場保證金貸款，也向股市輸送了5000億至1萬億元人民幣。

Brokerages limit margin leverage to a ratio of two to one and require clients to put up at least Rmb500,000. By contrast, Xunqianwang, a company that connects punters with borrowed money, allows leverage of up to six to one, and requires as little as Rmb2,000 of the client’s own funds. The company, whose Chinese name translates as “search for money”, boasts that new clients can gain approval in an hour.

券商對保證金貸款規定的槓桿率上限爲2比1，並要求客戶至少拿出50萬元人民幣本金。相比之下，在炒股者與資金之間牽線搭橋的尋錢網允許最大爲六比一的槓桿率，而且只要求客戶自己至少拿出2000元人民幣。尋錢網誇口說，新客戶有望在一小時內獲得批准。

“We can still control the risk because we strictly examine and assess every client,” says Zhong Jingtian, the founder and chief executive. The company restricts which stocks a client can buy and does not give loans to a single client exceeding Rmb3m.

“我們仍然可以控制風險，因爲我們嚴格審查和評估每一個客戶，”尋錢網創始人和首席執行官周競天表示。該公司對客戶可以買入哪些股票實行限制，而且不向單一客戶提供超過300萬元人民幣的貸款。

Analysts say the proliferation of margin lending creates the risk of a snowball effect as margin investors, faced with mounting losses, are forced to liquidate their positions unless they can post additional collateral.

分析師們表示，保證金貸款的泛濫帶來了雪球效應風險，因爲在虧損越來越大的情況下，利用保證金的投資者除非能夠拿出額外擔保金，否則將被迫平倉。

David Cui, equity analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, estimates that the Shanghai Composite would need to fall an additional 40 per cent for large-scale margin calls to kick in on official margin lending. “However, this doesn’t mean that margin call is not a serious risk right now,” he wrote in a note yesterday. “The selling pressure so far has mainly come from stock-related borrowings via various unofficial channels where the leverage is much higher.”

美銀美林(BofAML)股票策略師崔偉(David Cui)估計，上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)還需要再下跌40%，纔會觸發正規保證金貸款的大規模追加要求。“不過，這並不意味着追加保證金通知現在不是一個嚴重風險，”他在昨日一份簡報中寫道。“迄今的拋壓主要來自各種非正規渠道的股票相關借款，它們的槓桿率要高得多。”

Some analysts still expect the market to rebound. They argue that the fundamental factors underpinning the rally, especially loose monetary policy and ongoing economic reforms in China, are still intact, even as valuations now look more reasonable.

一些分析師仍預計市場將反彈。他們認爲，支撐股市漲勢的一些基本面因素，尤其是中國的寬鬆貨幣政策和正在開展的經濟改革，仍然完好存在，同時現在的估值看起來較爲合理。