普京式"平衡",玩轉俄羅斯

Liberals, to paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, are all alike; but conservatives are all conservative in their own way. While liberals insist on universal human rights and the pursuit of a globalised world, conservatives value national uniqueness, sovereignty and identity, defending their exceptionalism from a single, encroaching world order.

套用列夫•托爾斯泰(Leo Tolstoy)的話說，自由派總是相似的，保守派卻各有各的保守之處。自由派堅持倡導普世人權，追求一個全球化的世界；而保守派重視國家的獨特性、主權和認同，面對咄咄逼人的單一世界秩序，努力捍衛本國優越主義。

During his third term as president, Vladimir Putin is starting to distinguish himself as a Russian conservative. Understanding this will have considerable benefit for those seeking clues to the country’s future.

在自己的第三個總統任期內，弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)開始表現出俄羅斯保守派的特質。理解這一點，大大有助於判斷俄羅斯未來的走向。

The swing towards conservative ideas is partly a response to what is happening in the world. As Francis Fukuyama has shown, it is the statist right, rather than the radical left, that has won the battle of ideas in the wake of the global financial crisis. But it is also in large part the result of their inherent popularity at home, and the unique relationship of the Russian masses to their leaders.

向保守主義思想的轉變，一定程度上是對當今世界形勢的反應。正如弗朗西斯•福山(Francis Fukuyama)所證明的，本次全球金融危機之後在意識形態鬥爭中勝出的並非激進的左翼，而是奉行中央集權的右翼。但在很大程度上，這一轉變也是因爲保守主義思想在俄羅斯國內一向受到歡迎、以及俄羅斯民衆與領導人之間的獨特關係。

Russian conservatism can be traced to the time of the monarchy and is known by a simple formula: “Good tsar, bad elites.” It has always depended on giving the leader control in exchange for reining in the petty nobility. This was true of Ivan the Terrible and Joseph Stalin. It was true, too, of radical reformers such as Peter the Great and Vladimir Lenin, equally authoritarian but widely approved of because their target was the elite.

俄羅斯的保守主義可追溯至君主制時代，用一句簡單的話來概括就是：“好沙皇，壞精英。”其一直以來的存在基礎是將控制權交予領導人，以換取對小貴族的鉗制。伊凡雷帝(Ivan the Terrible)和約瑟夫•斯大林(Joseph Stalin)是如此，彼得大帝(Peter the Great)和弗拉基米爾•列寧(Vladimir Lenin)等激進改革者也不例外——後兩人的專制程度不比前兩人遜色，卻因爲打擊精英而備受認可。

One sees echoes in Mr Putin’s policies. In his first term, he cut the oligarchs down to size. Now he is chastising his own ruling group over petty corruption, symbolised by the firing of defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov after his ministry was embroiled in a corruption scandal.

普京的政策也是如此。首個任期內，他削弱了寡頭階層。如今，他正在圍繞輕度腐敗問題嚴厲整治自己的統治集團，其中標誌性的事件是在國防部捲入腐敗醜聞後將部長阿納託利•謝爾久科夫(Anatoly Serdyukov)免職。

Modern Russian conservatism is both anti-communist and anti-liberal. It is not the same as the US version, which values a small state. Here, conservatives value undivided political power, with economic power rooted in and subordinate to it. They value the traditions of established religion, sovereign foreign policy and the guarding of great power status.

現代的俄羅斯保守主義既反共產主義，也反自由主義，這與強調小政府的美國版保守主義不同。在俄羅斯，保守派看重的是獨攬政治權力，而經濟權力植根並從屬於政治權力。他們重視國教傳統、獨立自主的外交政策和捍衛大國地位。

For his first 12 years in power, Mr Putin’s conservatism was tempered by the need to appeal to an influential liberal elite. But with the desertion of this class to the ranks of anti-government protesters since 2011, he is finally making his true views known. This should not be seen as winding back the clock, however. Russia is in transition from the pure totalitarianism of the Soviet era; this conservative moment represents a rethinking of what comes at the end of the transition.

在執政的最初12年裏，由於需要吸引富有影響力的自由派精英，普京的保守主義思想受到抑制。但隨着2011年以來這一階層背離普京、加入反政府抗議者之列，普京終於開始展露出自己的真實想法。不過，這不應被視爲倒退。俄羅斯正處於走出蘇聯時代純極權主義的轉型期；這一保守主義時刻代表着對轉型結束時俄羅斯命運的反思。

Russia cannot return to the Soviet model other than on a symbolic level – such as reviving the Soviet anthem or socialist rhetoric. Likewise, we will not see the rebirth of the Tsarist empire with the Orthodox Christian tradition as the official ideology. Today, we are a multi-ethnic society with a growing Islamic population.

除了一些象徵層面的調整——比如恢復使用蘇聯國歌或社會主義言論——俄羅斯不可能再回到蘇聯模式。類似地，我們也不會看到以東正教傳統爲官方意識形態的沙皇帝國重生。當今，俄羅斯是穆斯林人口不斷增加的多民族社會。

It is also worth noting that, while liberals are a numerical minority, they are influential. The government is controlled by moderates, with Dmitry Medvedev as their head. The oligarchs, who by and large espouse liberal ideas, retain much power.

同樣值得注意的是，儘管自由派在人數上佔劣勢，但他們仍具有不小的影響力。政府是由以德米特里•梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)爲首的溫和派控制的。大體上擁護自由主義思想的寡頭們也仍握有很大的權力。

If we put these facts together, Mr Putin’s presidency is pragmatic – conservative mainly in the sense that it does not share globalists’ optimism. It is not trying to guard an exhausted status quo. His ideas, by and large, do not transgress the limits of moderate western-type nation-building.

將這些事實匯聚在一起可以看出，普京的這一總統任期是奉行實用主義的——其保守之處主要在於它不認同全球主義者的樂觀看法。它並不試圖維持窮途末路的現狀。普京的思想總體上並沒有逾越溫和的西方式國家建設的界限。

Mr Putin’s conservatism has been moulded by foreign pressure, symbolised by the passage in the US of the Magnitsky law, which creates a travel blacklist for certain Russian officials. It has been moulded from inside by the desertion of the middle class from the ranks of his supporters and the growth of a liberal protest movement.

普京的保守主義受到國外壓力的影響，其中具有代表性的是美國通過的《馬格尼茨基法案》(Magnitsky Act)，該法案設立了針對某些俄羅斯官員的旅行黑名單。在國內，影響則來自於中產階級脫離普京支持者行列以及自由派抗議運動的發展壯大。

In the face of these challenges, Mr Putin will move in the direction of being a conservative moderniser at home and a realist abroad. He will insist on state sovereignty, distrust globalisation, limit liberalisation and keep democracy strictly within a sovereign, national framework.

面對這些挑戰，普京的行動方向將是對內成爲倡導現代化的保守主義者，對外成爲現實主義者。他將堅持國家主權、懷疑全球化、限制自由化、將民主嚴格限制在獨立自主的國家框架下。

The term “balance of power” is the key to understanding Mr Putin’s version of conservatism, which will define politics in his third and presumably fourth terms. He will pursue the national interest, regional and global power, protectionism and mercantilism. Having lost the cold war, Russia will try to revise the status quo using all available opportunities.

“力量平衡”一詞是理解普京式保守主義的關鍵，這一思想將是他第三和（很可能出現的）第四個任期內的政治基調。他將追求國家利益、地區和全球影響力、保護主義和重商主義。在輸掉冷戰後，俄羅斯將努力利用一切可能的機會改寫現狀。

The writer is chairman of the department of the sociology of international relations at Moscow State University

本文作者爲莫斯科國立大學(Moscow State University)國際關係社會學系主任