你被炒魷魚了

It took Richard Nixon five months to fire the man investigating him. It took Donald Trump less than four. The difference is that Nixon did little to conceal his motive — to save his presidency. Mr Trump, on the other hand, says he fired James Comey for having mishandled last year’s email investigation into Hillary Clinton. Even by Mr Trump’s standards, this stretches credulity. Mr Trump is asking the US public to believe he “terminated and removed” the FBI director for having treated Mrs Clinton unfairly. This was the same opponent whom Mr Trump said should be locked up for mishandling her emails. Now, apparently, Mrs Clinton was the victim of an unprofessional probe and Mr Trump is setting things straight.

理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)花了5個月的時間炒掉了調查他的人。唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)花了不到4個月。兩者之間的區別是，尼克松沒怎麼隱瞞自己的動機：保住他的總統寶座，而特朗普則稱，他炒掉詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)是因爲後者對去年希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)“郵件門”的調查處理不當。即使以特朗普的標準，這也太把別人當傻子了。特朗普讓美國公衆相信，他“終止和免去（這位聯邦調查局(FBI)局長）的職務”是因爲後者曾不公平地對待了希拉里。希拉里正是特朗普口中那個應爲不當處置自己郵件被關進監獄的對手。如今看起來，希拉里曾是一項不專業調查的受害者，而特朗普正在伸張正義。

Mr Comey’s firing was ostensibly prompted by the revelation that he had misdescribed his decision last October to reopen the Clinton email investigation — a move that many believe tipped the election in Mr Trump’s favour. Yet Mr Comey, who until Tuesday night was overseeing the investigation into the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia to influence last year’s election, only disclosed his misstatement this week. Mr Trump, on the other hand, was cavilling at the FBI director long before Mr Comey’s disclosure. Last week Mr Trump tweeted: “FBI Director Comey was the best thing that ever happened to Hillary Clinton in that he gave her a free pass for many bad deeds!” Mr Comey, in other words, was already in Mr Trump’s sights.

表面上，科米被開除的導火索，是他對去年10月重啓希拉里“郵件門”調查的決定存在錯誤表述——很多人認爲該決定使得選情偏向有利於特朗普的方向。不過直到週二晚上還在主持特朗普競選團隊“通俄門”（涉嫌勾結俄羅斯以影響去年大選）調查的科米，本週纔剛剛披露了他的錯誤表述。而另一方面，特朗普在科米披露此事前很久就開始對這位FBI局長挑刺。上週特朗普在Twitter上發文稱：“遇上FBI局長科米是希拉里?克林頓最大的幸運，因爲他給了她一張免罪狀，勾銷了她做的很多壞事！”換句話說，科米早就被特朗普盯上了。

The implications are dramatic. Like any US federal scandal, the details mount but the basics remain simple. Having fired the head of the only Russia investigation taking place within the executive branch, Mr Trump will now conduct a search for Mr Comey’s replacement. What are the chances he selects an independent figure who will pick up the Russia investigation where Mr Comey left off? What are the odds Mr Trump’s FBI nominee gets the necessary 50 votes for Senate confirmation?

這將引發戲劇性的影響。正如任何一件美國政府醜聞一樣，細節很多，但基本事實很簡單。既然炒掉了行政分支內唯一正在進行的“通俄門”調查的負責人，那麼特朗普現在將開始尋找科米的接替者。他有多大可能性選出一個繼續完成科米未競的“通俄門”調查的獨立人物？特朗普提名的FBI局長人選在參議院得到必須的50票贊成的可能性有多大？

Mr Trump will be aided in his search by Jeff Sessions, the attorney-general, who was forced to recuse himself from overseeing Mr Comey’s investigation because of his undisclosed contacts with the Russian ambassador. This was the same ambassador with whom Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s first national security adviser, held conversations secretly recorded by the FBI. The leaked contents of those, in turn, led to Mr Flynn’s firing.

特朗普在搜尋人選時會得到司法部長傑夫?塞申斯(Jeff Sessions)的幫助。塞申斯曾被迫迴避監督科米的調查，因爲他曾與俄羅斯大使祕密接觸。特朗普的第一任國家安全顧問邁克爾?弗林(Michael Flynn)正是與這位大使舉行會談，被FBI祕密錄了下來。泄露出來的FBI錄音內容後來導致弗林被解職。

These are just the outlines. The key point is that Mr Trump has fired the man investigating him. Nixon’s “Saturday night massacre” in which he fired Archibald Cox, the special prosecutor, is the only precedent.

以上這些只是事件的大概情況。關鍵點是特朗普炒掉了調查他的人。尼克松的“週六夜大屠殺”(Saturday night massacre)——炒掉了特別檢察官阿奇博爾德?考克斯(Archibald Cox)——是唯一的先例。

There are three consequences. The first is that calls will mount to appoint a special prosecutor to take over the Russia investigation. Nixon was compelled to do so — as was Bill Clinton. Mr Trump will resist any such move. Only his fellow Republicans can force him to take that step. The pressure on Republicans to uphold the integrity of the US judicial system will sharply intensify. If one Republican senator, such as John McCain, breaks ranks, others would follow. So far the partisan line is just about holding. But cracks are starting to show.

此舉將帶來三大後果。首先，要求任命一名特別檢察官接管“通俄門”調查的呼聲將越來越高。尼克松當年就被迫這樣做——比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)也是如此。特朗普將抵制任何此類舉動。只有他的共和黨同僚能迫使他邁出這一步。共和黨人將承受急劇加大的壓力，要求他們維護美國司法制度的健全。如果有一名共和黨參議員——如約翰?麥凱恩(John McCain)——帶頭破壞隊形的話，其他人就會效仿。到目前爲止，黨內還保持着統一的隊形。但裂隙已開始顯現。

The second consequence is that Mr Trump will now find it impossible to banish the Russia narrative. In politics, bandwidth is power. It will be hard for Mr Trump to achieve much else while the Russia shadow hangs over him. It is difficult to believe he would have taken such a step had he believed leaving Mr Comey in place would pose a lesser risk. Having been blamed widely for tipping the election to Mr Trump, Mr Comey was on a quest to salvage his reputation. Now that he is gone, others in the FBI may take the initiative. It is worth remembering that Nixon was undone by a disgruntled FBI official, Mark Felt, who leaked details about his Watergate cover-up to the Washington Post. Either way, talk of the Trump administration’s “normalisation” looks premature. We are entering Nixonian territory.

第二個後果是，特朗普將發現，完全消除“通俄”說的影響是不可能的。在政治領域，“帶寬”就是力量。籠罩在俄羅斯陰影下無暇分身的特朗普，將很難在其他領域取得多少成就。要是特朗普相信留下科米風險更小的話，相信他也就不會炒掉科米了。由於被廣泛指責幫助讓選情偏向有利於特朗普的方向，科米一直在尋求挽回自己的聲譽。如今，科米被解職了，FBI的其他同僚可能會自發地挺身而出。值得記住的是，尼克松就是被憤憤不平的FBI官員馬克?費爾特(Mark Felt)搞下臺的，後者向華盛頓郵報(Washington Post)爆料了尼克松掩蓋“水門事件”(Watergate)的細節。總之，現在談論特朗普政府“正常化”看起來爲時過早。我們正在進入“尼克松場景”。

The third consequence is how this will go down in Moscow. The Russian government has made little secret of its desire to contaminate US democracy. On Tuesday Vladimir Putin chalked up another victory. The US president did something typically associated with a non-democracy. He interfered with the course of justice. Not even Nixon fired the head of the FBI.

第三個後果是，莫斯科方面將如何看待此事。俄羅斯政府幾乎毫不掩飾對於污染美國民主的渴望。週二，弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)又取得了一場勝利。美國總統做了一件通常只在非民主國家出現的事。他干擾了司法公正。連尼克松也沒有解除FBI局長的職務。

Russia may not achieve a grand bargain with the US to create its own sphere of influence. Mr Trump would find it hard to make any kind of geopolitical concession without provoking Republican hawks, such as Mr McCain. But Russia has already won the prize it sought. American democracy is in a deepening crisis. When and where it will end is anybody’s guess.

俄羅斯未必能與美國達成大妥協，以建立自己的勢力範圍。特朗普會發現，在不激怒共和黨鷹派人士（比如麥凱恩）的情況下，很難做出任何地緣政治讓步。但俄羅斯已獲得了自己想要的獎賞。美國的民主正處於一場不斷深化的危機之中。這場危機何時結束、將發展到何種地步，所有人都不得而知。