英國財政部 脫歐將導致逾50萬崗位流失

Britain faces the loss of more than half a million jobs if it votes to leave the EU, according to a bleak analysis of the short-term economic shock of a Brexit vote to be published on Monday by the Treasury.

英國財政部(Treasury)一份將在週一發表的對英國脫歐短期經濟衝擊的悲觀分析報告顯示，如果英國投票脫離歐盟(EU)，它將面臨逾50萬工作崗位的流失。

Ahead of the release of the report, Sajid Javid, the business secretary, said there would be a “immediate and profound economic shock” and warned the economy would contract by 3.6 per cent after two years and house prices would be 10 per cent lower than they would have been otherwise.

英國商業大臣薩吉德•賈偉德(Sajid Javid)在報告發布前表示，英國脫歐會產生“立即而深遠的經濟衝擊”。他還警告稱，兩年後英國經濟或將萎縮3.6%，房價或將比原本可能處在的水平低10%。

But speaking on the BBC Today programme, Mr Javid said “most worryingly of all [the Treasury predicts] a loss of over 500,000 jobs”.

不過，在英國廣播公司(BBC)的《今日》(Today)節目上，賈偉德表示“（財政部的預測中）最令人擔心的是逾50萬個工作崗位的流失”。

David Cameron and George Osborne hope the Treasury warning of an immediate hit to jobs, interest rates and house prices will be the clinching argument for undecided voters as the EU referendum campaign enters its final month.

戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)和喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne)希望，在英國脫歐公投進入最後一個月之際，財政部有關脫歐對工作崗位、利率和房價即刻造成的打擊的警告，會成爲說服仍懸而未決的選民的決定性理由。

The Treasury analysis suggests that growth could be 3.6 per cent lower after two years if Britain votes to leave the EU, compared with the forecast for continued growth after a vote to remain. This would produce a recession similar to that of the early 1990s but not as bad as the one that followed the 2008 crash.

財政部的這一分析暗示，如果英國投票脫離歐盟，兩年後其增長率或爲下跌3.6%。相比之下，如果投票結果是留在歐盟，預計英國經濟會繼續增長。這一跌幅導致的衰退與上世紀90年代初類似，不過卻沒有2008年危機後的衰退那麼糟。

Leave campaigners will point to the large margin of error implicit in the Treasury’s economic model, which claims that the economy could be 6 per cent lower than the current forecast under a worst-case scenario.

英國脫歐的支持者則提到，財政部的經濟模型隱含着巨大的誤差幅度，該模型聲稱最壞情況下英國經濟會比目前的預測低6%。

Iain Duncan Smith said: “The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone.”

伊恩•鄧肯•史密斯(Iain Duncan Smith)表示：“過去財政部在其預測上一貫出錯。這份財政部文件並不是一份誠實的評估，而是一種對未來有極大偏見的看法，任何人都不該相信它。”

The Treasury “short-term shock” paper is its second and final piece of analysis on Brexit before the June 23 EU referendum and is seen by Mr Osborne’s allies as likely to have the most impact on voters.

這份財政部的“短期衝擊”文件是6月23日英國脫歐公投以前，財政部對脫歐的第二份分析文件，也是最後一份。奧斯本的盟友認爲，它可能會對選民產生最大影響。