英國智庫：中國經濟將在2028年趕超美國

英國經濟與商業研究中心的年度報告稱，2028年中國經濟將趕超美國，成爲全球最大經濟體，比疫情前的預測提早了五年；印度有望在2030年成爲全球第三大經濟體。

China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says.

一份報告稱，2028年中國將超越美國成爲全球最大經濟體，比原先預測的提早五年。

The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said China's "skilful" management of Covid-19 would boost its relative growth compared to the US and Europe in coming years.

總部在英國的經濟與商業研究中心指出，中國對新冠疫情的管控“有方”將在未來數年提高中國相對美國和歐洲的經濟增長率。

Meanwhile India is tipped to become the third largest economy by 2030.

與此同時，報告預測印度將在2030年成爲世界第三大經濟體。

The CEBR releases its economic league table every year on 26 December.

經濟與商業研究中心每年12月26日都會發布經濟競爭力排行榜。

Although China was the first country hit by Covid-19, it controlled the disease through swift and extremely strict action, meaning it did not need to repeat economically paralysing lockdowns as European countries have done.

儘管中國是最先遭受新冠疫情打擊的國家，但是中國通過快速和非常嚴格的措施控制住了疫情，這意味着中國無需重複歐洲國家實施的導致經濟癱瘓的封鎖政策。

As a result, unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year.

因此，和其他主要經濟體不同，中國在2020年避免了經濟衰退，事實上估計中國經濟今年還能增長2%。

The US economy, by contrast, has been hit hard by the world's worst coronavirus epidemic in terms of sheer numbers. More than 330,000 people have died in the US and there have been some 18.5 million confirmed cases.

相比之下，美國經濟遭到了世界最糟新冠疫情（確診人數最多）的重擊。疫情導致美國逾33萬人死亡，確診病例達到了1850萬之多。

The economic damage has been cushioned by monetary policy and a huge fiscal stimulus, but political disagreements over a new stimulus package could leave around 14 million Americans without unemployment benefit payments in the new year.

貨幣政策和大額財政刺激方案緩解了美國經濟受到的衝擊，但是針對一項新經濟刺激計劃的政見分歧可能會導致來年約1400萬美國人領不到失業救濟金。

The report says that after "a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021", the US economy will grow by about 1.9% annually from 2022-24 and then slow to 1.6% in the years after that.

報告稱，“2021年疫情後經濟出現強勁反彈”之後，美國經濟將在2022年到2024年達到約1.9%的年增長率，此後幾年增長率將放緩至1.6%。

By contrast the Chinese economy is tipped to grow by 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030.

相比之下，報告預測中國經濟每年將增長5.7%，並保持這一增速直至2025年，而且在2026年到2030年間將維持4.5%的年增長率。

China's share of the world economy has risen from just 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% now and the country will become a "high-income economy" by 2023, the report says.

報告稱，中國在世界經濟中所佔的份額已從2000年的3.6%增長到現在的17.8%，中國將在2023年成爲“高收入經濟體”。

The Chinese economy is not only benefitting from having controlled Covid-19 early, but also aggressive policymaking targeting industries like advanced manufacturing, said CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams.

經濟與商業研究中心副主席道格拉斯·麥克威廉姆斯表示，中國經濟不僅受益於早早地控制住了新冠疫情，還得益於針對先進製造業等產業的積極決策。

經濟與商業研究中心的其他預測

The post-Brexit UK economy will grow by 4% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30.

脫歐後英國經濟將會在2021年到2025年實現4%的年增長率，2026年到2030年實現1.8%的年增長率。

India had overtaken the UK as the fifth-biggest economy in 2019 but has slipped behind it again due to the pandemic's impact. It won't take over again until 2024, the CEBR says.

印度已經在2019年超越英國成爲第五大經濟體，但由於受到疫情影響又被英國趕超。印度想再次成爲第五大經濟體要等到2024年。

India's economy will go on to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030.

印度經濟將在2027年超越德國，2030年超越日本。