電動汽車是否將迎來iPhone時刻?大綱

Is the electric car market about to have its iPhone moment

電動汽車市場是否即將迎來iPhone時刻？

Elon Muskclearly thinks so. The chief executive of Tesla Motors has never been shy when it comes to bragging about the wonders of his company’s vehicles. But based on his extravagantly ambitious new production plans, he has decided that a definitive moment is at hand that could turn the global car industry on its head.

埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)顯然認爲答案是肯定的。這位特斯拉汽車(Tesla Motors)的首席執行官在誇耀其公司汽車的美妙時從來不會保守。但基於雄心勃勃的新的生產計劃，他認爲一個決定性的時刻即將到來，有望顛覆全球汽車產業。

The Apple-like lines outside Tesla sales outlets at the end of March were a clue. That prospective customers would queue for hours to put down a $1,000 deposit on a car they had not even seen — and which most of them would not be able to actually buy for more than two years — is testament to Mr Musk’s ability to whip up excitement in a way that no one has done since the late Steve Jobs.

3月底，特斯拉銷售門店外排起的隊伍猶如蘋果(Apple)門店那麼長，那就是一個線索。這些潛在客戶願意排好幾個小時的隊，爲一款他們甚至還未見到的汽車支付1000美元定金（其中多數人要等上兩年多才能真正買到手），這證明了馬斯克有本事煽動人們的興奮心情，自史蒂夫•喬布斯(Steve Jobs)去世以來，還沒有別的人做得到這一點。

If all those pre-orders turn into sales (a big “if”, since the deposits are refundable) Tesla will bank $14bn in revenues. As the company has already taken to boasting, that will make the debut of its new Model 3 the biggest consumer product launch of all time. Even the iPhone did not get to that kind of scale until its third full year of sales.

如果所有這些預購轉化成銷售額的話（這裏存在一個大大的問號，因爲定金是可以返還的），特斯拉將斬獲140億美元的營收。（鑑於該公司喜歡誇耀，）那將令新款Model 3的亮相成爲史上最大的消費者產品發佈。即便是iPhone也是在問世第三年才達到這種規模的。

Based on this, Mr Musk has decided to go for broke. Tesla’s goal of hitting a production target of 500,000 by 2020 — nearly 10 times its 2015 deliveries — always looked a stretch. Now he plans to hit that output by 2018. And his new 2020 target? A cool 1m. At $35,000, but with the sizzle of the Tesla brand and incorporating many of the features of the far more expensive Model S, Mr Musk has decided the 3 represents a breakthrough moment.

基於這點，馬斯克決定放手一搏。特斯拉原來的目標是到2020年實現50萬輛的產量目標（那是該公司2015年發貨量的近10倍），這個目標本來就看起來勉強。現在他計劃到2018年就實現這一產量目標。他爲2020年設定的新目標？100萬輛。Model 3售價3.5萬美元，藉助特斯拉品牌的熱度，再加上納入了昂貴得多的Model S的很多功能，馬斯克認爲，Model 3代表着一個突破時刻。

So what is the risk that other disrupters from the tech industry, who have also been circling the automobile world, will crash this electric car party?

那麼，科技行業的其他顛覆者（它們也在對汽車行業虎視眈眈）是否有可能闖入這場電動汽車派對？

Mr Musk had a succinct answer, when asked about that on his company’s quarterly earnings call earlier this week: Apple and Google do not make things. They have been circling the automobile world for a while, but have yet to find a way in — though a deal with Fiat this week to make 100 self-driving minivans at least represents a toe in the door for Alphabet, Google’s parent, as it tries to put its self-driving technology on the road.

在最近特斯拉的季度財報電話會議上被問及這個問題時，馬斯克的回答簡明扼要：蘋果和谷歌(Google)不從事生產。它們覬覦汽車行業已有一段時間了，但尚未找到突破口，不過最近谷歌與菲亞特(Fiat)的協議（生產100輛無人駕駛小型貨車）至少代表着谷歌母公司Alphabet已經有一隻腳踏了進來，試圖將其無人駕駛技術投入實用。

“Making things” turns out to be a key point here. Contract manufacturers exist in the car business, but there is no global supply chain to dial up instantly, as Apple has been able to do so masterfully with its gadgets. There is not enough battery capacity in the world to support a mass electric car market. Only Mr Musk will have that — provided he can meet his own goals for Tesla’s “gigafactory”, being constructed in Nevada to support his car plans.

“生產產品”是這裏的關鍵。代工製造商在汽車行業是存在的，但沒有一個現成的全球供應鏈，就像蘋果一直能夠賴以製造其產品的供應鏈那樣。全球沒有足夠的電池產能來支撐龐大的電動汽車市場。只有馬斯克會擁有這樣的產能——如果他能夠實現特斯拉的“超級工廠”這個目標，該廠正在內華達修建，將爲他的汽車計劃提供支持。

Of course, Tesla itself has also yet to prove that it can handle the challenging task of scaling up production to meet the kind of demand Mr Musk dreams of. It has not even been able to hit much lower levels of production for its existing vehicles.

當然，特斯拉自己還尚未證明，它能夠應對擴大產量的挑戰，以滿足馬斯克夢想的那種需求。它甚至尚未達到現有車型的低得多的產量水平。

Mr Musk has blamed production glitches with the X on hubris — a quality his company has never been short of. Compared to the overambitious SUV crossover vehicle, the 3 has been designed with ease of production in mind, he promises.

馬斯克將Model X的生產問題歸咎於狂妄——他的公司的確從來不缺這種特質。他承諾，與過於雄心勃勃的SUV跨界汽車相比，Model 3在設計時就考慮到了生產方便。

Even with all this, there is the not inconsequential question of demand. The electric car market has seen many false dawns, though it may finally be turning a corner. Last year sales rose above 500,000, an increase of 70 per cent.

即便如此，還有一個絕非無關緊要的需求問題。儘管最終可能會打開局面，但電動汽車市場出現過多次虛假黎明。去年，電動汽車銷量突破50萬輛，增長70%。

To imagine that Tesla can match this entire global market single-handedly by 2018 takes a giant leap of faith.

想象特斯拉一家公司到2018年就能達到整個全球市場的規模，那是需要極大信心的。

Mr Musk, though, has concluded that his is the only company that has a shot, and the Model 3 is the car with which to do it.

然而，馬斯克得出的結論是，他的公司是唯一有機會脫穎而出的電動汽車製造商，而Model 3就是取得這種突破的那款汽車。

If he is right, comparisons with the iPhone will not be out of place. Like electric cars, smartphones went through many false dawns before Apple broke the market open. To produce a winning formula took a convergence of technology trends — the falling costs of processing power, increasing mobile bandwidth — along with innovations like multi-touch screens and the right packaging. The electric car industry has been waiting for a similar moment.

如果他說對了，把這款汽車與iPhone相提並論並非離譜。與電動汽車一樣，在蘋果打開市場之前，智能手機也經歷過很多虛假黎明。要拿出制勝配方，需要各種科技趨勢融合：處理能力成本下滑、移動帶寬擴大，以及多點觸控屏等創新和正確的包裝。電動汽車行業等待着類似時刻的到來。

Mr Musk’s electric car dream always looked like one of the most audacious of technology bets. This week, the stakes got much higher.

馬斯克的電動汽車夢本來就看上去像是最冒險的科技賭注之一。最近他進一步加大了賭注。