囧研究：不吃早飯真的會長胖嗎？！

The widely accepted notion that skipping breakfast might cause weight gain entered the Dietary Guidelines in 2010. However, it is based on scientific speculation, not certainty. Indeed, it may be completely unfounded, as an experiment in New York indicated.
不吃早餐可能會長胖爲人們普遍接受。這一觀念也被寫進了2010年版的《膳食指南》。然而，它卻是基於科學猜測，並非出於定論。的確，紐約進行的一則實驗表明，這個觀念也許能被全盤推翻。

“In overweight individuals, skipping breakfast daily for 4 weeks leads to a reduction in body weight,” the researchers from Columbia University concluded in a paper published last year.
來自哥倫比亞大學的研究員們在去年發表的一篇論文中表示：“對於過重的人們而言，四周內每天不吃早餐能減少體重。”

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee explained that in previous years, researchers generally conducted observational studies, in support of the notion that skipping breakfast might make one fat. Although this method is cheaper and easier to carry out, its weaknesses can lead scientists astray.
膳食指南諮詢委員會解釋道，前些年研究員們爲了印證不吃早餐也許會使人長胖的觀念，通常採取觀測研究。儘管這種研究方法更廉價、更容易實行，但它存在的缺點卻讓科學家們的研究方向走偏。

One of the primary troubles is confounders, which can lead researchers to make mistaken assumptions about causes. For example, suppose breakfast skippers have a personality trait that makes them more likely to gain weight than breakfast eaters. If that’s the case, it may look as if skipping breakfast causes weight gain even though the cause is the personality trait.
混淆因素是主要問題之一，它們能讓研究人員們對原因做出錯誤的猜想。舉個例，倘若不吃早餐者更容易增重是源於其性格。如果情況便是如此，那麼事實也許看起來是不吃早餐導致人增重，即使罪魁禍首是性格特徵。

In analyzing the results of observational studies, scientists make statistical adjustments to minimize the potential confounding factors that they can measure — age, alcohol consumption, exercise, employment, and the like. But the adjustments are imprecise, and there is no guarantee that the groups are not different in some other unmeasured way. Because of those weaknesses, many scientists prefer randomized controlled trials, which they often say provides the "gold standard" in evidence.
在分析觀測試驗的結果時，科學家們會對數據進行調整，力圖減少他們所能測量到的潛在混淆因素，像是年齡、酒精消耗量、鍛鍊、就業率等。但這些調整是不精確的，而且也沒人能保證這樣分組在其他某種未經測量的角度來看是一致的。因爲這些不足，許多科學家們更傾向於做隨機控制實驗。他們總稱這種實驗方式能提供黃金標準作爲證據。

When in the coming months the government unveils the 2015 Dietary Guidelines, it is unclear the advice on breakfast and weight gain will be included. The 2015 advisory committee issued a report that steered clear of the subject of skipping breakfast and weight.
在未來的幾個月內，美國政府要公佈2015年的《膳食指南》，人們尚不知關於早餐和體重增加的建議是否會被納入其中。2015年的諮詢委員會發布的這份報告繞開了不吃早餐和體重這個主題。

President of Millennium Prevention, a life sciences start-up company, and chair of the 2015 advisory committee, Barbara Millen said, “The sentiment was we don’t have to say anything further about it. We didn’t want to focus on a laundry list of foods and meals. We were focusing on overall dietary patterns.”
生物科學創業公司（Millennium Prevention）總裁兼2015年諮詢委員會主席芭芭拉·米倫稱：“我認爲不吃早餐和體重之間的關係探討並不是頭號問題，我的觀點是我們不需要再對它進一步討論。我們不想要將重點放在食物和餐飲的細目清單上，我們的重心在整體的膳食模式。”