二孩時代或致'幼兒園荒' 2021年預計缺口11萬所
China's implementation of a universal two-child policy will impose higher requirements on pre-school education resources, resulting in a possible shortage of kindergarten spots, according to a survey by China Youth Daily.
根據《中國青年報》的一項調查，我國實施的"全面二孩"政策將對學前教育資源提出更高要求，可能導致"幼兒園荒"。Compared with 209,900 kindergartens across China in 2014, it's estimated that about 319,500 kindergartens will be needed by 2021, which means a shortage of nearly 110,000 spaces by 2021.
2014年全國有20.99萬所幼兒園，據估計，到2021年幼兒園需求量約爲31.95萬所，相較之下，存在近11萬所的缺口。In addition, nearly 1.99 million teachers and 1.37 million child-care workers need to be added to the preschool education sector in the same period.
此外，到2021年，學前教育領域需補充近199萬名教師和137萬名保育員。
The first group of children born after the enactment of the policy will reach school age in 2019; it is anticipated that the policy will have its maximum impact from 2019 to 2021.
"全面二孩"政策實施後出生的第一批兒童將在2019年達到入學年齡，據預測，"全面二孩"政策的影響將在2019-2021年間達到頂峯。Specifically, school-age children will increase by almost 6 million in 2019, 11 million in 2020 and then reach the peak of 15 million in 2021.
具體來說，2019年學齡兒童將增加近600萬人，2020年將增加1100萬人，之後，新增學齡兒童數量將在2021年達1500萬人的峯值。The number will begin to decrease year by year after 2021, with an estimated 42 million children eligible for preschool education by 2035.
2021年後，這一數字開始呈下降趨勢，到2035年，預計上幼兒園的兒童爲4200萬。However, the requirement of expenditure on preschool education will keep increasing from 2016 to 2035. Compared with about 65 billion yuan (around 9.5 billion US dollars) expenditure on preschool education in 2013, the requirement for 2035 will be about 652 billion yuan, with a shortfall of 587 billion yuan.
然而，從2016年到2035年，學前教育經費支出需求持續上漲，與2013年650億（約95億美元）的學前教育支出相比，2035年將達到6520億元，這中間的差額是5870億美元。
