馬斯克:不該嘲笑逃離地球之夢

Since the end of the 30-year US space shuttle programme in 2011, manned space flight has dwindled to a series of mundane but bone-shaking bus-rides on Russian rockets up to the International Space Station in low Earth orbit.

2011年美國結束爲期30年的航天飛機計劃以後，載人太空飛行就只剩下了一系列尋常而顛簸的搭載俄羅斯火箭前往在低地軌道運行的國際空間站的太空巴士航行。

True, Nasa, still by far the world’s largest space agency, is developing a new generation of manned spacecraft.

沒錯，作爲一直以來全世界最大的航天機構，美國國家航空航天局(Nasa)正在研發新一代載人飛行器。

But a working prototype — let alone a new Apollo-style programme — is many years away.

但是造出一架可投入使用的原型機還需要許多年的時間，更不用說提出一項可與阿波羅計劃相提並論的新航天計劃了。

Logically, this hiatus should provide an opportunity to rethink the whole purpose of sending people into space, an environment so profoundly hostile that huge sums have to be spent making travel beyond the Earth’s atmosphere even remotely safe.

按理說這個間隙是個很好的時機，我們正好反思把人類送入太空究竟有何意義，畢竟太空環境極其惡劣，僅僅是爲了保證飛越地球大氣層的航行具有絲毫的安全性就需要投入龐大資金。

But too many Americans still feel a compulsion to spend billions of tax dollars on manned space flight for a re-evaluation to be politically feasible.

但是美國仍然有太多人懷着衝動，希望投入鉅額納稅人資金對載人太空飛行進行重新評估，使其具有政治可行性。

When, in 2010, President Barack Obama scrapped the Constellation programme that would have taken the US back to the moon by the next decade, the storm of protest was intense.

2010年美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)取消在下個10年重返月球的星座計劃時，就引發了強烈的抗議浪潮。

The latest to capitalise on the inchoate desire to slip Earth’s surly bonds is the Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Elon Musk.

最新一位想要利用人類尚處於早期階段的渴望擺脫地球粗暴羈絆心理的是硅谷企業家埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)，他提出了一項讓星際旅行夢想復活的計劃：

He has come forward with a plan to revive the dream of interplanetary travel, proposing a reusable spaceship that he estimates that could travel between Earth and Mars in three months, starting sometime in the 2020s.

建造一艘可以重複使用的宇宙飛船，它可以在3個月時間內來往於地球和火星之間，在2020年至2030年之間的某個時間點開始投入使用。

This would be the first step to building a larger fleet and ultimately establishing colonies on other planets.

這將是打造一支更龐大飛船艦隊的第一步，最終目標是在其他星球建立殖民地。

In Mr Musk’s view, that could allow mankind to become a multi-planet species — thus cheating its inevitable extinction on Earth.

在馬斯克看來，這將使人類成爲多星球物種，以此逃離在地球上不可避免的滅絕命運。

These are, of course, intoxicating visions. But they also raise questions about the merit of prioritising what remains, surely, a very long-term objective.

這樣的願景當然令人神往，但也不免讓人心生疑問：把一個仍然十分長遠的目標當作優先事項來處理是否可取？

Mr Musk’s project depends on technologies not yet in existence, whether propulsion systems or the means to protect any interplanetary craft’s human cargo against the impact of radiation in deeper space.

馬斯克的計劃取決於目前尚未發明出來的技術，無論是推進系統，還是保護星際飛船所載人員免受深層太空輻射影響的技術。

It would require partnerships with the public sector — not least Nasa — that could cost very many billions of taxpayers’ money.

這將需要與公共部門（尤其是Nasa）合作，也就是說可能會耗費數量巨大的納稅人資金。

Then there is the risk of failure damaging confidence in manned space flight for the longer-term future.

況且如果計劃失敗，可能會在未來很長一段時間內影響人們對載人航天飛行的信心。

It is worth remembering that SpaceX’s own record is not flawless.

應當記住的是，SpaceX本身的記錄並不完美。

Two of its unmanned rockets recently blew up, one during a routine refuelling exercise earlier this month.

該公司近期有兩枚無人火箭炸燬，其中一枚是本月早些時候在進行燃料補給的常規操作時爆炸的。

There is nothing wrong about bringing in private sector capital and know-how to back space exploration.

引入私營部門資本及技術支持太空探索沒有錯。

Mr Musk’s SpaceX has, through some clever innovations, helped to bring down the cost of putting unmanned payloads into space.

通過一些巧妙的創新，馬斯克的SpaceX幫助降低了把無人航天器送入太空的成本。

But manned space flight remains a grossly extravagant endeavour on any rational evaluation of the scientific benefits, which are often mentioned as its justification.

但是，根據對相關的科學益處（這也往往被視作該領域研究的正當理由）進行的合理評估，載人航天飛行仍然是一項非常奢侈的嘗試。

If past funds had instead been invested in unmanned exploration and space science, we would know far more about our solar system, and indeed the universe, than we do today.

如果過去用於該領域的資金投入無人探索和空間科學，我們對太陽系、乃至宇宙的瞭解會比現在多得多。

Apart from national pride, the real reasons for manned space flight are those outlined by Mr Musk in his presentation.

除了國家自豪感，載人航天飛行的真正原因正是馬斯克在其演講中所闡述的那些。

Advocates talk about the benefits of international collaboration and inspiring the young.

支持者們談論國際合作的好處以及對年輕人的激勵作用。

But above all, there is the human spirit of adventure, the idea that our manifest destiny is to move out from the Earth to explore — and ultimately to colonise — the solar system and the galaxy.

但最重要的是人類的冒險精神，我們相信我們的天賦使命是走出地球，探索太陽系和銀河系，並最終在其他星球進行殖民。

This long-term vision lay behind Apollo in the 1960s and also underpins Mr Musk’s interplanetary vision.

這個長遠的願景既是上世紀60年代阿波羅計劃啓動的背後原因，也支撐着馬斯克的星際旅行夢想。

While many people will now regard it as more fantastic than inspiring, it remains the best justification for sending people into space.

儘管現在很多人會認爲這個願景與其說激動人心不如說不切實際，但是它仍然是將人類送入太空的最佳理由。