Lex專欄 騰訊會是下一個Facebook嗎

Watch out Facebook, Tencent is following you. On Wednesday, shares in the Chinese online games and messaging service provider jumped as much as 6 per cent after revealing second-quarter revenues up 50 per cent year on year. Net profit rose by a similar proportion, beating analysts’ forecasts by 10 percentage points. The figures are impressive for a $250bn company, and Tencent still has plenty of growth potential.

Facebook得小心點了，騰訊(Tencent)正在緊追你的腳步。週三，在這家中國網絡遊戲和消息服務提供商披露其第二季度營收同比增長50%後，其股價一度躍升6%。淨利潤增幅也和營收類似，比分析師預期高了10個百分點。對於一家規模爲2500億美元的公司來說，這些數字令人印象深刻，而騰訊仍有充足增長潛力。

Tencent remains reliant on gaming and subscription revenues, which make up three-quarters of the total. Mobile game revenues, in particular, more than doubled year on year. Subscriptions also grew strongly, confirming the company’s ability to charge for content previously free in China, such as music and video.

騰訊仍依賴於遊戲和會員費營收，佔其總營收的四分之三。特別是手遊營收同比增長一倍以上。會員費增長強勁，確立了該公司對此前在中國免費的內容（比如音樂和視頻）收費的能力。

Its other businesses, however, show the most promise. Tencent has barely begun to profit from the 800m monthly active users of its messaging apps, which double as social network accounts. The potential in advertising as well as marketing fees is substantial. Despite growing by 60 per cent, advertising revenues were less than $1bn. In its second quarter, Facebook made nearly all of its $6bn top line from ads. And according to China Skinny, a China-based marketing consultant, there are more stores on Wechat — mostly run by individuals, but some also branded — than there are on Alibaba’s Taobao. Christian Dior, the French atelier, recently sold a limited-edition handbag through a social posting on Wechat, reportedly selling out in just one day.

不過，顯示出最大前景的是騰訊在其他方面的業務。騰訊幾乎纔剛剛開始從其消息應用每月8億的活躍用戶身上盈利，這些應用也被用作社交網絡賬戶。廣告費和營銷推廣費潛力十分可觀。儘管騰訊的廣告營收增長了60%，但總額還不到10億美元。而今年第二季度，Facebook的60億美元營收幾乎都來自廣告。而根據總部在中國的營銷諮詢公司China Skinny的說法，目前微信(WeChat)上的商店（這些商店多數由個人運營，但部分商店也有品牌）比阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的淘寶(Taobao)上還多。法國工作室克里斯汀•迪奧(Christian Dior)最近曾通過微信上的社交帖銷售一款限量版手袋，據報道該手袋僅僅一天就售罄。

So payments, too, show promise. The “other” division, in which they are lumped with cloud services, grew nearly fourfold, but is still less than one-tenth of the top line. Yet of China’s 710m “netizens”, a smaller proportion play games than shop or make payments online, according to government data. China’s internet is underpenetrated, too. Just over half of the population is connected to the internet, compared with four-fifths of the US. Yet China’s users are far more mobile with their usage, which also plays to Tencent’s strengths.

而支付業務也顯示了廣闊前景。與雲服務一同被歸類到“其他”業務的部門增長近四倍，但營收仍不到總營收的十分之一。然而，根據中國政府的數據，在中國7.1億“網民”中，玩遊戲的網民比例低於網購或網上支付的網民比例。而且，中國的互聯網滲透率還不夠。連上互聯網的人口剛過一半，相比之下美國的比例爲五分之四。不過，中國用戶使用移動互聯網的比例高得多，而這正是騰訊的長處所在。

Tencent looks like a game-maker for now. Its true potential will emerge as it becomes more like Facebook.

如今，騰訊看起來像是遊戲製作者。隨着它更像Facebook，它的真實潛力將逐漸顯露出來。