教會新風潮 教皇應當更相信科技

The shocking thing about the papal encyclical Laudate Si is not that it was leaked in advance nor even that it embraces the idea that most emissions of greenhouse gases are the result of human activity. The thing that should shock readers is its attack on science and technology — the very tools, indeed the only tools, which offer a solution to climate change.

對於教皇方濟各發表的題爲《讚美你》(Laudato Si)的通諭，令人震驚之處不在於它被提前泄露，甚至也不在於它支持的觀點，即大部分溫室氣體排放是人類活動的結果。應當讓讀者震驚的是它對科學技術的攻擊，而科技恰恰是爲氣候變化提供解決方案的工具（其實也是唯一工具）。（上圖爲一名修女在梵蒂岡閱讀教皇方濟各的《讚美你》(Laudato Si)通諭）

I am not a student of theology and therefore do not claim to understand the subtleties of the Catholic Church’s teaching on science. But since the Pope has moved outside his own natural territory and into energy policy, some response seems appropriate.

我並非一名學習神學的學生，因此不能宣稱理解天主教會科學教義的細枝末節。但是，既然教皇超出了自己的領地，涉足能源政策領域，我們做出一些反應似乎是合適的。

From a distance, Pope Francis seems to embody decency. He is modest, frugal, concerned for the poor and hostile to the creepier side of the church hierarchy in Rome and beyond. That makes him stand out in a world of shallow and cynical “leaders”. He commands millions of followers and his words deserve to be taken seriously whether one is a Catholic or not.

從遠處看，教皇方濟各似乎是正派的化身。他謙遜、節儉、關心貧苦大衆，而且反對羅馬和其他地區教會系統的陰暗面。這使他在當今世界淺薄而犬儒主義的“領導人”裏脫穎而出。他號令着數以百萬計的追隨者，不論你是不是天主教徒，他的話都值得認真思考。

But if you read the encyclical there is a flaw in the argument that undermines the credibility of the whole text. It is perhaps best summed up by paragraph 110 of the document, which deserves to be quoted in full:

但如果你通讀這則教皇通諭，就會發現其論據有一個瑕疵損害了整個文本的可信度。文中第110段也許最透徹地反映了這一點，在這裏值得被全段引用：

“It can be said that many problems of today’s world stem from the tendency, at times unconscious, to make the method and aims of science and technology an epistemological paradigm which shapes the lives of individuals and the workings of society. The effects of imposing this model on reality as a whole, human and social, are seen in the deterioration of the environment, but this is just one sign of a reductionism which affects every aspect of human and social life. We have to accept that technological products are not neutral, for they create a framework which ends up conditioning lifestyles and shaping social possibilities along the lines dictated by the interests of certain powerful groups. Decisions which may seem purely instrumental are in reality decisions about the kind of society we want to build.”

“可以說，當今世界的許多問題源於（經常是無意識的）這樣一種傾向，即讓科學技術的方法和目標成爲塑造個人生活和社會運作的認識論範式。對人類和社會現實整體實施這種模式，造成的影響表現在環境惡化上，但這只是影響人類和社會生活方方面面的簡化論的一個標誌。我們必須承認，科技產品不是中性的，因爲它們創建了一個框架，最終根據某些強大集團的利益來影響生活方式，塑造社會可能性。那些貌似純屬工具性的決定，實際上決定了我們要構建什麼樣的社會。”

This is one among many examples of a critique of science that runs through the whole document. This must be disspiriting, to put it mildly, to the many Catholics who have been involved in research on climate change over the last 20 years and more. The very problem of climate change was identified by scientific analysis. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, is composed of scientists whose conclusion about the causation of climate change and the associated risks if it continues unchecked have brought the issue to public attention across the world. Those scientists did not rely on prayer but on hard work, often extending the limits of what was previously known. Their work is what separates them from the deniers of climate change whose belief is based on faith rather than facts.

這是貫穿整篇通諭的批判科學的許多例證之一。這一定會讓（說得婉轉些）許多在過去20多年裏參與研究氣候變化的天主教徒感到沮喪。氣候變化這個問題只能通過科學分析確定。聯合國政府間氣候變化委員會(IPCC)是由科學家們組成的，他們得出的關於氣候變化因果關係及相關風險（如果再不控制）的結論，引起了全世界公衆對這一課題的關注。這些科學家依靠的不是祈禱，而是嚴謹細緻的工作，往往拓展原有知識的極限。他們的工作把他們與那些否認氣候變化的人區分開來，後者的信念建立在信仰（而非事實）的基礎上。

Having identified the problem, what are the solutions? There is no single answer. Pope Francis repeatedly calls for a change in behaviour. That is all well and good but for many people, especially the world’s poorest, such a behavioural change can only happen if they are offered a viable alternative to burning coal or other fossil fuels. Every possible alternative I can think of comes back to science — either in the form of existing technology or scientific advances that have yet to be made. That includes electric vehicles which would reduce oil consumption, smart meters which would control and limit energy use, carbon capture and storage, clean coal technology, advanced batteries and other storage technologies, photovoltaics and advanced materials. The list could go on — and indeed fills up hundreds of pages of the latest review of Energy Technology Perspectives from the International Energy Agency.

找出問題之後，解決方案是什麼呢？答案不是唯一的。教皇方濟各一再呼籲人類改變自身行爲。這當然很好，但對許多人（尤其是世界上最貧窮的人羣）來說，只有向他們提供一種替代燃燒煤炭或其他化石燃料的可行方案，纔有可能改變他們的行爲。我能想到的任何可能的替代方案，都要藉助科學——不論是以現有技術的形式，還是依靠尚未成爲現實的科技進步。它們包括可以減少石油消費量的電動汽車、控制並限制能源使用的智能電錶、碳捕獲和儲存、潔淨煤技術、先進電池和其他存儲技術、光伏發電和先進材料。當然還有很多——在國際能源署(IEA)最新發表的《能源技術觀察》(Energy Technology Perspectives)中，有幾百頁的篇幅描述此類技術。

Scientists are advancing these technologies across the world — in companies and in universities by individuals who believe they are doing something good for the world. The encyclical undermines their efforts.

世界各地企業和高校的科學家們都在推進這些技術，他們相信自己正在做對世界有益的事。教皇通諭對他們的努力沒有幫助。

If these efforts ceased today I do not know what could take their place. The encyclical implies that climate change is a problem of the rich world consuming too much. One can see why the US. Republicans led by Jeb Bush do not like it. But in reality, the challenge of climate change now is not focused on the US or Europe, where energy demand has stopped growing and where the carbon intensity of GDP declines year by year. The problem comes from the growing populations of south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa — areas that between them will have some 1.5bn to 2bn more citizens in 20 years’ time than they do today. Every citizen needs energy and, although many will subsist on less than they need, tens of millions will become consumers of commercial supplies of coal and oil which will generate more and more emissions. Unless, that is, science can offer a lower-cost alternative.

如果這些努力今天止步，我想不出還有什麼可以替代它們。教皇通諭暗示，氣候變化是發達國家消費過多的問題。我們可以理解，爲什麼以傑布•布什(Jeb Bush)爲首的美國共和黨人士不喜歡它。但實際上，如今氣候變化挑戰的焦點並不在美國或歐洲，因爲美歐的能源需求已停止增長，其國內生產總值(GDP)的碳排放強度也在逐年下降。問題在於南亞以及撒哈拉以南非洲地區的人口增長——這兩個地區的人口將在未來20年增加約15億至20億。每個公民都需要能源，雖然很多人得不到足夠的能源，只能勉強維生，但至少數千萬人將成爲商業化煤炭和石油供應的消費者，從而導致越來越多的排放——除非科學可以提供一種低成本的替代品。

The Pope calls for a change in behaviour. He is right. But the change should not just come from those who consume too much and who give no care to the environmental impact of their actions. Real change should start with a shift in the mindset of those who remain trapped in the belief that the products of science and technology must always be bad. Knowledge and the ability to apply that knowledge to meet human needs can be positive in every sense.

教皇呼籲人類改變自己的行爲。他說的沒錯。但這種改變不應僅來自那些目前消費過多、而且對自身行爲的環境影響毫不關心的人羣。真正的改變應當始於另一個人羣，這些人必須改變科技產品一定不好的老觀念。知識，以及應用知識滿足人類需求的能力，無論在什麼意義上都是積極的。