爲什麼美韓導彈部署將刺激中國開發先進武器
The United States and South Korea’s recent decision to counter North Korean missile capabilities with an advanced system on the Korean peninsula left China “deeply dissatisfied” and ready to take “necessary measures” a defense ministry spokesman said at the end of July.
美國和韓國近期決定在朝鮮半島部署先進的武器系統，以反制朝鮮的導彈力量。此舉引發了中國的嚴重不滿。中國國防部的一名發言人在七月底表示，中國已經準備好了採取“必要措施”加以應對。
In the month since the agreement was announced many analysts have wondered how Beijing’s anger will manifest.
在美韓宣佈該決定的當月，許多分析家都思考過北京將會如何表達其憤怒。
One common sentiment is that the strategic collateral imposed on China by the missile system called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense may force Chinese diplomats to reconsider their inaction on North Korea’s nuclear efforts.
一種常見的觀點是，這個被稱爲末段高空區域防禦系統（THAAD，薩德）的導彈系統對中國造成了戰略上的附帶傷害，也許會迫使中國外交人員重新審視他們在朝核問題上的不作爲。
Others fueled by an earlier Chinese warning that THAAD could “destroy” relations with South Korea “in an instant” argue that China may seek to discipline Seoul with economic repercussions.
另一種觀點，基於中國發出的“薩德有可能會‘瞬間摧毀’中韓關係”的警告，論證稱中國可能尋求以經濟上的回擊來對首爾方面進行懲戒。
Such responses fail to encompass the full scope of China’s domestic and foreign policy thinking.
這種反應不能全面涵蓋中國內政外交政策考量。
China will not move in a quick or meaningful fashion to oppose Pyongyang — Beijing fears destabilizing the Kim regime which would risk expanding the U.S. presence in the region far beyond THAAD deployment and potentially spur an influx of impoverished North Korean refugees into China.
中國不會採取迅速或有意義的方式反對平壤——北京懼怕推翻金家政權可能會導致的風險：美國在該地區的勢力會擴張至遠超出薩德部署的範圍，以及刺激潛在的朝鮮貧民潮涌入中國。
In fact China’s THAAD-inspired refusal to support a U.N. Security Council measure on recent North Korean missile launches suggests that negotiations are even less attainable than before.
事實上，中國因受薩德刺激而拒絕支持聯合國安委會就最近朝鮮發射導彈採取措施，表明談判比以往更加難以實現。
Likewise THAAD deployment damages Chinese trust in Seoul on security issues but it does not obscure the two countries’ growing economic interdependence.
同樣地，薩德的部署也損害了中國在安全議題上對於首爾方面的信任，但不會令兩國經濟上的日漸相互依賴變得前途未卜。
While South Korea is asymmetrically dependent on economic relations with China it is also China’s second largest trade partner and a major source of foreign direct investment.
雖然這種經濟依賴是非對稱的，韓國更多地依賴與中國的經濟關係，但它仍然是中國的第二大貿易伙伴和一個主要的外國直接投資來源地。
Though Beijing will seek to coerce South Korea by publicly considering sanctions the risk of collateral from major economic retaliation is thus unwarrantable for China especially in the context of a slowing domestic economy.
儘管中國會以公開考慮制裁措施來試圖迫使韓國就範，但進行大規模經濟報復的附帶風險也是中國所沒有把握的，尤其是在中國國內經濟放緩的大背景下。
