後奧巴馬時代,世界將面臨一個更加混亂的中東

With only months to leave the White House, Barack Obama is very likely to be another US president doomed to the same failure after nearly eight years of futile efforts to make peace in the Middle East.

儘管離卸任還有幾個月，但在解決中東和平問題上，奧巴馬卻很有可能成爲又一個花費八年時間卻徒勞無功、最終同樣失敗的美國總統。

On last Wednesday, Obama is going to kick off what could be his last visit to Saudi Arabia as president, and convene a summit with leaders of Gulf Arab nations in Riyadh.

上週三，奧巴馬開始了他作爲總統的最後一次沙特之行，並與海灣地區阿拉伯國家的領導人在利雅得舉行了一場峯會。

Many observe the trip as the US leader's last-ditch effort to fix Washington's impaired partnership with the House of Saud, yet they expect that the outgoing president would return without making much of a difference.

許多評論員將這次訪問視作這位美國領導人試圖修復美國和沙特王室夥伴關係的最後努力，但他們認爲奧巴馬的這次訪問很有可能將無功而返。

While losing faith in the Americans, Riyadh also fears that Tehran, which is now partially freed from the shackles of economic sanctions, would change the power balance in the region.

在對美國人失去信心的同時，沙特也擔心在部分擺脫經濟制裁的情況下，伊朗可能會改變中東地區的勢力平衡。

It then ventured militarily in Yemen to prevent the Shiite Houthi group from taking over the whole country, executed a top Shiite cleric over terror-charges, and is trying to build up a regional anti-terror alliance parallel to the one led-by the United States.

因此，沙特軍方進駐也門，以試圖阻止什葉派胡塞武裝組織接管整個也門。沙特還以恐怖主義罪名爲由，處死了也門的一名什葉派宗教領袖，並試圖建立一個以美國爲首的地區性反恐怖主義聯盟。

Though the Saudis are discontent, the Iranians are not pleased either. In the face of a Saudi-Iran catch-22, the Obama administration wants to show that it is not appeasing the Islamic Republic, and has slapped new sanctions on Iran's missile program. For that, Tehran has responded by launching more test shots and military drills.

儘管沙特表現出不滿，但伊朗人似乎也不高興。面對沙特-伊朗進退維谷的局面，奧巴馬政府爲了表明自己不是在安撫伊朗，決定對伊朗的導彈計劃採取新一輪的制裁。而對此，伊朗方面則以更多的測試發射和軍事演習作爲迴應。

Looking forward, Saudi Arabia's burgeoning anxiety to defend its preeminence could risk confrontations with a recovering Iran, either directly or in the form of proxy wars. And that is just one facet of how the Obama administration turns the Middle East into a more dangerous place by mishandling the problems there.

展望未來，沙特對於維持自己在伊斯蘭世界的領導地位感到越來越焦慮，因爲它將很有可能在未來和一個日漸強盛的伊朗相對抗，或以直接戰爭、或以代理戰爭的形式。而那僅僅只是奧巴馬政府因不當處理中東問題，從而將中東推向更危險境地的一個方面。

In the early days of his presidency, Obama was both ambitious and cost-conscious as he trod the waters in the Middle East.

在上任初期淌中東這趟渾水的時候，奧巴馬顯得既躊躇滿志，又小心謹慎。

On the one hand, the president pictured a "new beginning" with the Muslim world in his Cairo University speech and promised to deliver peace to the region, while on the other he was not willing to recalibrate his input to serve the strategies out of political calculations.

一方面，奧巴馬在開羅大學演講時，描繪了伊斯蘭世界的一個“新篇章”，並承諾自己將實現該地區的和平。但在另一方面，奧巴馬又不願意以不計政治報酬的方式投入到該地區的事務中去。

From the start, Obama's Middle East strategy is doomed to fail because he is more of an opportunist than an idealist. Whenever it comes to the decision that takes real political courage to face the cold-hard facts, he has uniformly flinched.

從一開始，奧巴馬的中東政策就註定會失敗，因爲他更像一個投機主義者，而不是一個理想主義者。每當需要他拿出真正的政治勇氣來對這些冷酷的事實做決定的時候，他都退縮不前。

When President Obama steps down on Jan. 20 next year, he is sure to leave behind him a Mideast legacy that is shadowed by these unfathomed fundamental questions that are engulfing the region right now, and are ready to fester.

當奧巴馬於明年1月20號卸任的時候，他肯定會留下一個難堪的中東政治遺留問題，這些懸而未決的關鍵性問題將會成爲籠罩整個中東地區政治陰影，並進一步危害中東地區的和平與穩定。

And whoever is to succeed him, it is hoped that he or she could be a little more responsible in making and executing a Mideast policy, and focus on what matters most instead of pure American self-interests. Otherwise, the US meddling could only get the region deeper mired in conflicts.

不管奧巴馬的繼任者是誰，我們都希望他或者她能夠在制定和執行中東政策的時候更負責一點，應該致力於中東地區最迫切需要解決的問題，而不是隻尋求如何實現美國自身的利益。否則，美國的干涉只會讓中東捲入到更深的衝突泥潭當中去。