中國經濟增速降至7% 六年來最低

HONG KONG — China’s economy grew in the first three months of 2015 at its slowest quarterly pace in six years, dragged down by an industrial slowdown and a weak housing market, the government announced Wednesday.

香港——中國政府週三宣佈，由於工業增長放慢、房地產市場回落等因素，2015年第一季度國內經濟增速跌至六年來最慢。

Gross domestic product rose 7 percent from a year earlier, in line with economists’ forecasts. While the growth rate means China still ranks as one of the world’s fastest growing major economies, it marked the country’s slowest quarterly expansion since early 2009, when it was still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis.

一季度GDP與去年同比增長7%，符合經濟學家們的預期。儘管這一數值仍能保證中國躋身全球增長最快的經濟體之列，但同時也標誌着中國進入了自2009年全球經濟危機以來增長最慢的一季度。

China’s Communist Party leadership has lowered its official growth target for this year to around 7 percent. This would be the nation’s slowest annual expansion in 25 years, but leaders have said this is a price that needs to be paid in order to reduce the economy’s reliance on credit-fueled growth and get everyday shoppers to spend more of their savings.

中國共產黨領導層將今年官方的經濟增長指標下調至7%左右，爲25年來最低。但領導人表示，這是爲了減少對信貸刺激增長的依賴性並拉動日常消費所必須付出的代價。

Recent indicators suggest that the economy could be slowing more rapidly than many observers expected. In March, industrial production rose 5.6 percent from a year ago, its slowest increase since late 2008. Land purchases by real estate developers plunged 32 percent by area in the first three months of the year.

最近的指標表明中國經濟增長的放緩可能比許多觀察員所預期的更快。3月，工業生產同比增長5.6%，創2008年來新低。而房地產開發商一季度的土地購買量按面積算下跌32%。

Premier Li Keqiang told a forum of Chinese economists on Tuesday that economic performance in the first quarter “has a strong role as a weathervane,” according to a report in the Beijing News newspaper.

據《新京報》報道，中國總理李克強在週二某經濟學家論壇上表示，一季度的經濟指標“有很強的風向標作用。”

The pace of growth in the first quarter “supported quite ample employment, and residents’ incomes have also risen in step,” the Beijing News said, summarizing Mr. Li’s comments.

一季度增速“支撐了比較充分的就業，居民收入也同步增長，”新京報總結李克強的評論說。

“But on the other hand we must see that downward economic pressure indeed continues to grow,” Mr. Li said. “Some of our traditional sources of strength are receding, and at the same time there are newly emerging sources of growth, and some sunrise industries are experiencing explosive growth.”

“但另一方面必須看到，經濟下行的壓力的確在持續加大，”李克強說。“我們一些傳統的支撐力量正在消退，與此同時，一些新興力量則在成長，有的新業態新產業呈爆發式成長。”

For example, retail sales in March rose 10.2 percent, the slowest increase in nearly a decade. But online merchandise sales increased 41 percent in the first quarter, and now account for about 9 percent of all sales of consumer goods in China.

例如，3月份零售額增長10.2%，爲10年來最低。但網上商品銷售額一季度增長41%，已佔中國消費品總銷售額的9%左右。

Foreign trade, by contrast, has been buffeted by lackluster overseas shipments and signs of even weaker demand at home. Exports of goods by value rose only five percent in the first three months of the year, while imports slumped 17 percent, weighed down by lower global prices for oil and other commodities.

相比之下，對外貿易則在慘淡的海外出貨和更慘淡的國內需求的影響下遭受重創。一季度出口價值總量僅增長5%，而由於全球油價及其他商品價格的跌落，進口量大幅下降17%。

The housing market continues to struggle, with home prices falling and new construction starts declining. This has far-ranging effects at home and abroad, including on domestic steel production, pricing of imported iron ore from Australia and the employment of sales agents at property brokerages across China.

隨着房價的下跌和房屋新建工程的減少，房地產市場依舊呈現低迷態勢，對國內外均造成深遠影響，包括國內鋼鐵生產、對澳大利亞進口鐵礦石定價和中國各地房地產經銷商對銷售代理的僱傭。

Sheng Laiyun, the spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said that “downward pressure” on the Chinese economy came from both external factors, including the tepid recovery of many economies, and also from domestic factors. New sources of growth were emerging, he said, “but in the short term it’s difficult for them to make up for the subsiding of traditional drivers.”

中國統計局發言人盛來運表示中國經濟的“下行壓力”同時來自如各方面經濟復甦緩慢的國際因素，和國內因素兩方面。新動力的確在孕育，他說，“但短期內仍舊難以彌補傳統動力消退所帶來的影響。”

China’s leaders have responded to the slowdown by easing monetary policy but have held off from introducing more aggressive stimulus measures. Since November, the central bank has cut interest rates twice and freed up banks to lend more. Most economists expect further cuts in the coming weeks or months.

中國領導層爲應對經濟增速的放緩放寬了貨幣政策，但遲遲未進一步採取更激進的刺激措施。11月來，央行進行了兩次降息並放寬了銀行的放貸能力。大多數經濟學家預計未來幾周或幾月內將迎來再次降息。

These measures do appear to be having an effect, with key short-term borrowing rates in China’s money market, an important indicator of the real cost of funding for smaller banks and other financial institutions, falling to around 3 percent in the past week, down from around 5 percent in February.

這些措施似乎在短期內卓有成效，短期借款利率從2月份的5%左右下降至上週的3%左右。短期借款利率是爲規模較小的銀行和其他金融機構融資的實際成本的重要指標。

Despite this, there are still few signs that the government’s efforts at weaning the country off of credit fueled growth are succeeding. Total credit growth has slowed in recent months, but it is still outpacing G.D.P. growth, meaning China as a whole is growing more indebted. The biggest factor here continues to be the increase in corporate borrowing.

儘管如此，仍然沒有什麼跡象表明政府讓國家擺脫信貸刺激增長的模式的努力取得了成功。近幾個月，貸款總額的增長速度放緩，但仍然快於GDP的增速，這意味着中國在整體上欠債更多了。最大的因素仍然是公司貸款的增加。

In his remarks on Tuesday, Mr. Li emphasized that the government would persist with planned economic and financial overhauls despite slowing growth.

在週二的講話中，李克強強調，儘管增速放緩，但政府將堅持計劃中的經濟金融改革。

“Our toolbox still has many policy tools, and the biggest tool is reform,” Mr. Li said. “There certainly is pressure now, and the pressure on some sectors is quite heavy. But there is also impetus, and many businesses take a positive long-term view of this market,” he added.

“我們的‘工具箱’裏還有不少政策工具，而最大的工具就是‘改革’，”李克強說。“當前確有壓力，甚至在一些行業的壓力還比較大。但也有動力，多數企業長期看好這個市場。”