美國油價降至六年最低

Oil prices fell to six-year lows on Monday in the face of concerns that a glut in the United States was outpacing already-brimming storage facilities.

週一，油價降到了六年來最低值。人們擔心美國本已盈滿的石油儲備設施無法跟上石油供過於求的幅度。

Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries published a report suggesting that the cartel remained reluctant to intervene to prop up prices.

此外，石油輸出國組織（Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries，簡稱OPEC）發佈了一篇報告，表示該組織仍不願意插手干預，擡高油價。

The direction of oil prices, which had risen sharply from January lows, has fallen back in recent days. Traders are now focused on the second quarter of the year, when demand for oil is traditionally weak because of the end of winter and scheduled refinery shutdowns for maintenance.

從1月的低點已經出現大幅度擡升的油價，近日又出現了跌落趨勢。交易者目前把重點放在了今年第二季度。屆時由於冬季結束，再加上煉油廠往往會停產維護，石油的需求量一般會比較低。

On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the main United States benchmark, fell about 2 percent to about $44 a barrel, a six-year low, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by about 2 percent to about $53 a barrel.

週一，美國主要油價基準美國西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)的價格下跌了約2%，降至每桶約44美元（約合275元人民幣）——六年來最低值；而傳統基準布倫特原油(Brent Crude)的價格則下跌了約2%，降至每桶約53美元。

Oil markets continue to focus on OPEC because its members could quickly alter the markets’ balance by cutting production. But while some members, including Nigeria and Venezuela, would like to see cuts, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies show little inclination to change the policy they agreed to in the fall: Protect market share regardless of what happens to prices.

石油市場仍然把注意力放在OPEC上，因爲其成員能通過減少產出，迅速改變市場的平衡。不過，雖然尼日利亞和委內瑞拉等成員國希望能減少產出，沙特阿拉伯及其在海灣地區的盟友卻不太願意改變他們在秋天達成的政策：不管油價如何，都要保護市場份額。

While OPEC’s competence at managing the market was always much in question, the organization’s decision to stay on the sidelines has opened the way for volatile price movements.

儘管人們對OPEC是否有能力管理市場仍然存在諸多疑問，但該組織不插手干預的決定，卻爲不穩定的價格浮動開闢了道路。

In the view of market participants, OPEC’s role as the swing producer has moved to the United States and, in particular, to the producers of oil from shale rock. These companies have helped increase American production by more than four million barrels a day since 2009, far more than the combined increases in the rest of the world.

在市場參與者看來，OPEC生產調節者的角色已經轉移到了美國，尤其是轉移到了頁岩油生產商身上。自2009年以來，這些企業把美國的日生產量提高了超過400萬桶，遠遠超過了世界其他地區的增量總和。

Many analysts say that with low prices discouraging investment in drilling, production growth in the United States will level off and even begin to decline. But when this change will happen is a matter of speculation.

許多分析人士都表示，低價會阻止人們投資開採，美國生產量的增長將趨於平穩狀態，甚至開始下跌。但是，目前仍不能確定這種變化將於何時到來。

A group of oil companies working in Texas and North Dakota and elsewhere is far different from the gatherings of OPEC oil ministers that decide whether to cut or increase supply at meetings in Vienna.

在德克薩斯州、北達科他州等地工作的油企團體，與OPEC石油部長的會面迥然不同。後者會在維也納的會議上決定減少或增加供應量。

“A new math for oil has emerged,” said Bhushan Bahree, an analyst at IHS Energy, a business information company in Washington. “The new math is the mix of variables that shape the pace and level of U.S. oil production as well as investment in high-cost sources of supply.”

“石油行業出現了一個新的算式，”華盛頓商業信息公司IHS能源(IHS Energy)分析師布尚·巴里(Bhushan Bahree)說。“組成這個算式的變量包括美國石油生產的速度與水平，以及對高成本供貨源的投資。

Mr. Bahree said that while the market was trying to find a new equilibrium, “it is likely to flounder in the search for a new price range.”

巴里表示，雖然市場試圖找到一個新的平衡，“在尋找新的價格區間的過程中可能會陷入困境。”

OPEC made its own guess about when production might begin declining in the United States in its monthly oil report, published on Monday. Asserting that the output of a typical shale well can fall by 60 percent annually and noting the continued decline in the number of drilling rigs operating in the United States, OPEC suggested that “a drop in production can be expected to follow, possibly by late 2015.”

OPEC在週一公佈的每月石油報告中，對美國石油產量何時開始下降提出猜想。OPEC聲稱，一個典型的頁岩油油井的產量一年會下降60%，並指出在美國作業的鑽探設備的數量會繼續減少，該組織表示，“可以預計產量會跟着下降，這種情況可能會持續到2015年晚些時候。”

While that might seem like encouraging news to oil producers, it also means that OPEC, or at least Saudi Arabia, may be in no hurry to cut production at the group’s next meeting, in June.

雖然對於石油生產商來說，這可能看起來是鼓舞人心的消息，但這還意味着OPEC——或至少沙特阿拉伯——可能不急於在6月該組織召開會議時減少產量。

The Saudis argue that over time, economics will work in their favor because their oil costs a few dollars a barrel to produce, while oil from shale, deepwater wells and Canadian oil sands is much more expensive. The Saudis also contend that any move to prop up prices now will encourage more investment in production in the United States and elsewhere.

沙特阿拉伯人認爲，久而久之，經濟發展狀況將對他們有利，因爲他們每桶石油的生產成本只有幾美元，而通過頁岩、深水井及加拿大油砂獲取的石油要貴得多。沙特人還辯稱，現在任何推高價格的舉動都會鼓勵加大對美國及任何地方石油生產的投資。

In a speech on Sunday in Doha, Qatar, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to the Saudi oil minister, also seemed to counsel patience. “We have a long-term view, and we do not make knee-jerk reactions to headlines,” he said, according to a text of his speech.

演講文稿顯示，週日在卡塔爾多哈發表演講時，沙特阿拉伯石油部長的顧問易卜拉欣·穆漢納(Ibrahim al-Muhanna)似乎建議保持耐心。“我們選擇從長計議，不會不經思考地對一些重要新聞做出反應。”

Mr. al-Muhanna said he was confident that demand from a strong global economy would prove sufficient to soak up supplies and that “prices will firm up.”

穆漢納表示，他相信全球經濟的強勁發展帶來的需求足以消化供應，“價格會回升”。

OPEC’s report on Monday was less sanguine. The group forecast that demand for its crude would average about 29.2 million barrels a day in 2015. That is about 800,000 barrels a day less than OPEC said it was producing in February.

OPEC在週一公佈的報告並不樂觀。該組織預測，2015年原油需求量平均會達到每天2920萬桶。這比OPEC報告的2月份的日產量少了大約80萬桶。