默克爾的社會實驗 Merkel's success hangs on a social experiment

On September 4, Angela Merkel transformed herself into a kind of German Rosie the Riveter. Deploying the slogan used in a US wartime advert featuring a woman in a headscarf and overalls, the chancellor said: “We can do it” — and opened the borders of Germany (and Europe) to refugees. The nation has whiplashed between elation and panic ever since.

9月4日，安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)把自己變成了德國版的鉚工露斯（Rosie the Riveter，第二次世界大戰時美國女工的統稱——譯者注）。這位德國總理借用扎頭巾、穿工作服的女性形象的美國戰時宣傳畫中使用的口號說：“我們能辦到”——然後向難民們放開了德國（和歐洲）的邊界。自那以來，德國人就開始在興高采烈和驚慌失措之間搖擺不定。

Berlin says 800,000 will seek asylum in Germany this year alone. Informal estimates put the number at 1.5m. This influx of traumatised human beings was not caused by Ms Merkel. But opening the doors was a daring political and social experiment, the most consequential act of her 10 years as chancellor.

柏林方面表示，今年到德國尋求避難的人將達到80萬。非正式估算顯示，這個數字將是150萬。受到創傷的人羣大量流入，並不是由默克爾引起的。但打開大門是一個大膽的政治與社會實驗，是她擔任總理10年中所採取的意義最重大的行動。

Success and total failure are both within reach. Either way, the result will be an utterly changed Germany and Europe.

成功和完全失敗都是可能的。不管是哪種結局，德國和歐洲都將發生翻天覆地的變化。

There is no denying the past few weeks have brought out Germany’s ugly side. The number of recorded attacks against refugees has reached the hundreds. Rightwing populist movements such as Pegida are spewing bile on social media and on the streets.

不可否認，德國醜陋的一面在過去幾周裏暴露出來。記錄在案的攻擊難民案件達到了數百起。右翼民粹運動，比如“愛國歐洲人反對西方伊斯蘭化”(Pegida)，在社交媒體和街頭髮泄憤怒情緒。

Tension is rife in Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party, too. Horst Seehofer, head of her Bavarian sister party, is leading the revolt; his poll numbers have risen as hers have fallen. In opinion polls, the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland party is registering more than the 5 per cent needed to enter the national parliament. Even a cabinet member has pandered to rising anxiety.

在默克爾的基督教民主聯盟（Christian Democratic Union，簡稱基民盟）內部，關係也非常緊張。基民盟的姊妹政黨巴伐利亞基督教社會聯盟（Bavarian CSU，簡稱基社盟）黨魁霍斯特澤霍費爾(Horst Seehofer)領導了這場抵制運動；默克爾的支持率在下降，他的支持率卻在上升。在民意調查中，右翼的德國新選項黨(Alternative für Deutschland)支持率超過了5%這一進入全國議會的門檻。就連一名內閣成員也對不斷升溫的焦慮表示了迎合。

At the same time, tens of thousands of Germans are taking a stand against hate crimes and speech, or the indecisiveness of overwhelmed authorities. Students work in soup kitchens, pensioners teach languages and skills. A friend who works long hours in a government job is volunteering in a refugee home. Another says his synagogue in Berlin is participating in an aid programme at a Catholic hospital. Pragmatism, they say, is the order of the day: if the rules do not solve problems, so much for the rules.

另一方面，數萬德國人開始反對仇恨犯罪與言論，也反對不知所措的當局的優柔寡斷。學生們到施粥所工作，退休人員講授語言和技能。有一位每日工作時間很長的公職人員，自願到一處難民之家提供服務。另一位朋友說，他在柏林的教堂到一所天主教醫院參加了一項救助計劃。他們說，務實態度是眼下最重要的：如果規則不解決問題，那就別管規矩了。

So society is changing before our eyes — but the truth is that it had already changed. Two decades ago, an interior minister vowed that the country (then mostly white and Christian) would never be a destination for immigrants. It is only a few years since Ms Merkel declared Germany had failed to integrate its migrants. By then it had taken in millions of “guest workers” and war refugees. About 10m became citizens. Today, more than 20 per cent of the population are migrants or migrants’ children. Germany is a multicultural, multireligious and multicoloured country.

所以，社會正在我們眼前改變——但真相是，社會已經發生了改變。20年前，一名內政部長髮誓稱，德國（當時國民中多數是信仰基督教的白人）永遠不會成爲移民的目的地。就在幾年前，默克爾宣告德國未能成功讓移民融入主流社會。當時，德國已然接收了數百萬名“客籍工人”和戰爭難民。大約1000萬人變成了德國公民。如今，逾20%的德國人口是移民或移民的後代。德國是一個多文化、多宗教和多膚色的國家。

The nation needs large-scale immigration to help secure its welfare state and its economy. But many German families remember having been refugees themselves. After 1945, 13m deportees from east Europe resettled in West Germany; 3m came from the Soviet Union in the 1990s. On October 3 1990, 16m East Germans woke up in a new country. These were big challenges. If there is one lesson from all these experiences, it is that history is not destiny, and identity is a matter of choice. In the refugees who choose Europe, and Germany, Germans recognise themselves.

德國需要大規模的移民，以幫助維持福利國家和經濟發展。但是，許多德國家庭記得，他們自己也當過難民。1945年後，1300萬來自東歐的被驅逐者在西德安家；1990年代，有300萬人從蘇聯來到德國。1990年10月3日，1600萬東德人一覺醒來，發現已身處一個新國家裏。這些曾是重大挑戰。如果說可以從這些歷史中得出一條經驗的話，那就是，歷史並非定數，而身份認同是一個選擇問題。在那些選擇歐洲和德國的難民身上，德國人看到了自己。

Yet the German example also shows that social change needs time, money and wise policies. It took 50 years to acknowledge the full horrors of the second world war. Reunification cost an estimated ㈠琀渀. Decades of indifference created Turkish ghettos — until Berlin made it easier for migrants to become citizens. Fresh polls show a majority of Germans now fear the nation might not be able to absorb all the latest refugees.

不過，德國的例子也表明，社會改變需要時間、金錢和明智的政策。德國承認第二次世界大戰的全部恐怖花了50年時間。統一付出了大約2萬億歐元的代價。幾十年的漠不關心造就了土耳其人聚居區，直到德國政府放寬了移民轉爲公民的條件。最新民調顯示，如今大多數德國人害怕，他們的國家或許沒有能力吸收所有最近到來的難民。

Ms Merkel seems determined to stand her ground. To make her experiment work, she will have to make difficult compromises. Building walls on the border is not an option, but there will be holding areas and repatriation for migrants from countries held to be safe.

默克爾看來決心堅守自己的立場。若要這場實驗成功，她將不得不做出一些艱難的妥協。在邊境建起高牆不是選擇，但德國將設立收容區，並遣返來自被視爲安全國家的移民。

Turkey is securing privileged access to the EU for cracking down on traffickers. Germany also needs a foreign policy that addresses root causes of conflict in the Middle East, and supports vulnerable host countries such as Lebanon. Above all, it must adapt its humanitarian unilateralism to legitimate needs of more vulnerable member states.

土耳其由於打擊人口販運而爭取到了優先進入歐盟的權利。德國的外交政策也需要針對中東衝突的根源，並向黎巴嫩等脆弱的難民接納國家提供支持。最重要的是，德國必須調整其在人道主義問題上的單邊做法，照顧到比較脆弱的歐盟成員國的正當需求。

Failure could mean that Ms Merkel finds she has presided over the destruction of the European project. But if she succeeds, she might yet become a candidate for the Nobel Peace prize that rightly eluded her this year.

實驗失敗可能意味着，默克爾發現自己成了歐洲一體化破產的主要推手。但如果實驗成功了，她或許還能成爲諾貝爾和平獎的候選人。今年的諾貝爾和平獎合情合理地沒有頒給默克爾。