人民幣政策背後的木馬戰略和全球目標(下)

How prevalent is that opposition?

反對的聲音在中國有多普遍？

It is surprisingly prevalent even among Chinese economists who are pro-reform.

反對的聲音在中國令人驚訝地普遍，即使在主張改革的中國經濟學家中也如此。

There is a good reason for that: If one takes economic theory and the practical experience of emerging market countries into consideration, China is doing it exactly the wrong way.

其背後有一個很好的理由：如果將經濟理論和新興市場國家的實踐經驗考慮進來，中國正在用完全錯誤的方法進行改革。

The right way to do it is to make domestic financial markets more sound, improve regulatory frameworks and make the exchange rate more flexible so that it can act as a shock absorber.

正確的方法是，先讓國內的金融市場更加健全，完善監管框架，讓匯率變得更加靈活，從而使之成爲吸收震盪的工具。

Then you can open up the capital account.

然後你纔可以開放資本賬戶。

But I think there’s a logic to China’s strategy.

但我覺得，中國的戰略有其自身的邏輯。

Opening up the capital account isn’t just about money, because China doesn’t need money from abroad.

開放資本賬戶不只是爲了錢，因爲中國並不需要國外的錢。

But what comes with the money is very important.

但是，伴隨錢而來的東西非常重要。

One example is where the Chinese government brought in foreign strategic investors into its banks.

一個例子是，中國政府將外國戰略投資者引進銀行。

In 2007, in particular, there was concern that there was no improvement being undertaken in the corporate and financial structure of the big state-owned banks.

特別是在2007年，人們當時擔心大型國有銀行的公司和財務結構沒有得到改善。

The idea was that those foreign investors in the banks will have an incentive to bring with them better corporate governance practices and better risk-management practices.

中國的想法是，讓外國投資者參與中國銀行，將刺激他們把更好的公司治理實踐和風險管理實踐帶到中國來。

So all these sort of collective benefits that come with the capital are what China wants.

所以，所有這些隨資本而來的共同利益纔是中國想要的。

The Chinese government prizes stability.

中國政府以穩定爲本。

Will it give up control?

它會放棄控制嗎？

China represents a grand and fascinating experiment in managing these two fundamentally contradictory impulses: trying to let the markets work freely versus trying to maintain stability and control in the market.

讓市場自由運轉，還是試圖保持市場的穩定和對市場的控制，在管理這兩個根本上相互矛盾的衝動上，中國代表着一次壯麗且迷人的實驗。

We see that in a variety of contexts, and the currency is no exception.

我們在幾件事情中都看到這點，貨幣也不例外。

The Chinese government would like the currency’s value to be more market-determined because they see that as important in terms of increasing the renminbi’s prominence.

中國政府希望本國貨幣的價值更多地由市場決定，因爲他們認爲那對提升人民幣的地位很重要。

They view the stability of the currency as an important marker of their ability to manage the economy well.

他們將貨幣的穩定性視爲自己能良好管理經濟的重要標誌。

This is going to create a number of stumbles and missteps in the future, and indeed it already has.

這將在未來製造一些失誤和失策，這其實已經發生了。

Should the world be concerned about China’s growing financial ambitions?

世界應該擔心中國日益增長的金融野心嗎？

There is a positive view about this — that having China become more engaged with the international community is a good thing.

對這個問題有一種正面的看法，讓中國更多地參與國際社會是件好事。

Rather than saying that it is a developing country and should be handled by different standards, China might recognize that ultimately having good rules governing international trade and finance would be to its own benefit.

與其讓中國說自己是一個發展中國家，應該按不同的標準受到對待，不如讓中國意識到，從根本上採用有關國際貿易和金融的良好規則將對其自身有利。

But I think there was also a fear that China could end up parlaying its economic heft into a more strategic influence that then feeds into its somewhat expansionist tendencies.

但我認爲也有一種擔心，那就是，中國可能最終希望把自己的經濟力量轉化爲更具戰略意義的影響力，然後將其注入某種擴張主義傾向。

In the past, and in fact until fairly recently, China took a fairly brute-force approach, using its economic clout to gain economic and political influence.

在過去，事實上直到最近，中國採取的方法都相當粗暴，用自己的經濟實力來獲得經濟和政治影響力。

Now China has adopted what I think is a much more savvy and disciplined approach to its international engagement.

現在中國在國際事務的參與上，已經採取了在我看來是更加精明且更符合準則的方式。

First, it’s increasing its influence in existing international institutions, which allow it to influence the rules of the game from the inside.

首先，中國正在增加其在現有國際機構中的影響力，這將讓中國能夠從內部影響遊戲的規則。

Second, it is setting up its own institutions like the A.I.I.B.

第二，中國正在建立自己的機構，如亞投行

[Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank] that allow it to redefine the rules of the game from the outside.

（亞洲基礎設施投資銀行），這將讓中國能夠從外部重新定義遊戲的規則。

Third, it is bringing lifelines to countries, and bringing them [other countries] into its embrace by setting up institutions with them.

第三，中國在爲一些國家提供生命線，通過在這些國家建立機構，將它們納入自己的懷抱。

China is very effectively gaining what I like to think of as a multilateral sheen for its effort to build closer economic relationships with other countries.

在爲本國與其他國家建立更密切經濟關係的努力上，我認爲中國正在卓有成效地獲得一種多邊光輝。

At a time when the political rhetoric in the US is about disengaging and questioning traditional lines both economic and political, I think China stands ready to fill in the void.

美國目前的政治詞藻都是關於脫離、質疑傳統經濟和政治路線的，在這個時刻，我覺得中國已經做好了填補空缺的準備。

That is not intrinsically a bad thing.

這本身不是一件壞事。

But we have to remember many of the values the US in particular has fought for, or tried to expand, like supporting democratic forms of government, by-and-large free markets, freedom of expression and so on.

但我們必須記住那些價值觀，尤其是美國爲之奮鬥、或試圖推廣的，比如支持民主形式的政府、大體上自由的市場、言論自由等等。

All those are anathema to China.

所有這些都是爲中國所仇視的東西。