奧巴馬遭遇自家人找麻煩

It is not just President Barack Obama’s trade agenda that hangs in the balance. The Senate’s rebuff to his request for a vote on the fast-track negotiating authority also casts doubt on his “pivot to Asia”. The White House downplayed the defeat as a “procedural snafu”. It insists common sense will prevail. But the goal of enacting Trade Promotion Authority — an essential step to wrapping up both the Pacific and transatlantic deals — is starting to look arduous.

前途未卜的不僅僅是美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的貿易議程。美國參議院拒絕奧巴馬就“快車道”(fast-track)談判授權舉行投票的請求，也給他的“重返亞洲”戰略罩上疑雲。白宮將此次挫折淡化爲“程序混亂”。白宮堅稱，常識將會佔據上風。但獲得“貿易促進授權”(TPA)是締結跨太平洋和跨大西洋協定的關鍵一步，現在看起來實現這個目標有些困難。

The Senate was supposed to be the easy part. Moreover, Mr Obama’s toughest opponents are within his own party — a new challenge after years of grappling with reflex Republican obstructionism. What remains of his trade agenda will depend on persuading Democrats to climb down and keeping Republicans onside. It also poses a test of America’s authority in an era of geopolitical rivalry. China does not suffer from procedural mishaps. Mr Obama must retrieve the initiative.

美國參議院本來應該不是問題。此外，奧巴馬最難纏的反對者是在本黨內部——在多年疲於應對共和黨反射性的否決之後，這是一個新的挑戰。他的貿易議程前途如何將取決於能否說服民主黨做出讓步，並保持共和黨的支持。這也讓美國在地緣政治對抗時代的權威經受考驗。中國沒有出現程序混亂。奧巴馬必須恢復主動。

Hillary Clinton’s ambivalence is one measure of how tough that will be. As secretary of state, Mrs Clinton described the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as the “gold standard” of global trade rules. As the Democratic frontrunner to replace Mr Obama, she has stayed ominously silent on the deal. Her stance owes much to political calculation. Mr Obama is opposed by the entire spectrum of Democratic interest groups — from trade unions to environmentalists and consumer organisations.

希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的矛盾態度表明這將是多麼的艱難。希拉里曾在任國務卿時將12國參與的《跨太平洋夥伴關係》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP)描述爲全球貿易規則的“黃金標準”。作爲有望取代奧巴馬的民主黨總統競選人，她又對該協定保持沉默，這是一個不祥的跡象。她的立場在很大程度上是出於政治上的考量。奧巴馬受到民主黨所有利益集團的反對——從工會到環保主義者和消費者團體等。

The president may have erred in presenting it as a personal fight with Elizabeth Warren, the populist senator from Massachusetts. Mrs Warren has made defeat of the TPA into her own cause. Dismissing her as misinformed — and opponents in general as “calcified” — Mr Obama has only encouraged other Democrats to fall in line with her. Their view is that TPP will lower US labour and environmental standards. They are wrong. Mr Obama needs to do a better job of explaining why.

奧巴馬可能犯了一個錯，那就是表現得好像這是他與來自馬薩諸塞州的平民主義參議員伊麗莎白•沃倫(Elizabeth Warren)的個人爭鬥。沃倫已經將挫敗“貿易促進授權”當作自己的事業。奧巴馬抨擊沃倫受到了誤導，並認爲反對者整體“鈣化”，結果只會促使其他民主黨人贊同沃倫的觀點。他們認爲，TPP將會降低美國勞工和環境標準。他們是錯誤的，奧巴馬需要更好地解釋原因何在。

He must also set out how the Pacific deal would differ from the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was passed during Bill Clinton’s administration. Nafta has become a touchstone on the US left for all that is wrong with free trade. It was sold as a deal that would generate millions of US jobs. It fell far short.

他還必須解釋TPP與《北美自由貿易協定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)如何不同，後者在比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)政府時期通過。美國左翼往往拿《北美自由貿易協定》來說明自由貿易的壞處。該協定曾被兜售爲將會爲美國創造數百萬就業崗位，結果卻遠未有那麼多。

The left sees TPP as another “giant sucking sound” for corporate offshoring. This is in spite of the fact that China is not a part of TPP. The left says never again. Even moderate Democrats say they will only support a deal if it includes a provision to punish China for manipulating its currency. That would kill any chance of a Pacific agreement and would rightly invite Mr Obama’s veto.

美國左翼認爲TPP是企業活動外流到海外發出的又一個“巨大的吸吮聲”，這還是在中國沒有參與TPP的情況下。左翼說不能再這樣了。甚至溫和的民主黨人也表示，只有協定包含懲罰中國操縱人民幣匯率的條款，他們纔會支持協定。這將會扼殺簽署跨太平洋協定的可能性，也無疑會招致奧巴馬的否決。

Mr Obama must also be careful not to oversell the economic benefits of TPP. At the margins it will create jobs and open up Japan, Vietnam and other markets to US exports and investment. Nor should it be seen as a geopolitical counter to a China that is increasingly willing to make up its own rules and set up its own clubs. It is vital for the US to make clear that TPP will be open to all, including Beijing. Mr Obama should be careful to avoid a game of zero-sum rivalry with the Chinese.

奧巴馬還必須保持謹慎，不要過度誇大TPP的經濟益處。它至少會創造就業併爲美國的出口和投資打開日本、越南和其他市場。它也不應被視爲在地緣政治上對抗中國，後者日益有意制定自己的規則和創建自己的俱樂部。至關重要的是，美國應明確表示，TPP將會向包括中國在內的所有國家開放。奧巴馬應該小心避免與中國進入零和對抗。

Mr Obama’s challenge is novel. He must rely on Republican support to salvage the centrepiece of his economic diplomacy. The clock is against him. America’s partners know there is no chance that Congress will ratify a trade agreement in 2016, which is a presidential election year. TPA must be passed within the next few weeks if a deal is to be concluded and enacted before the end of 2015. Capitol Hill’s obstacles must be overcome. America’s global credibility is at stake.

奧巴馬面臨的挑戰很奇特。他必須依靠共和黨的支持來挽救其經濟外交的核心議程。奧巴馬必須爭分奪秒。美國的合作伙伴知道，美國國會不可能在舉行總統大選的2016年批准貿易協定。如果要在2015年底前締結並通過協定，就必須在未來數週內獲得“貿易促進授權”。必須克服國會山的障礙。美國的全球信譽正經受考驗。