一味抨擊普京於事無補

There is a military saying that armies have to fight the wars they can rather than the ones they wish to fight. It is a maxim that western leaders should consider in their confrontation with Russia.

軍事上的一句名言是，軍隊必須打能打之仗，而不是打想打之仗。西方領導人在與俄羅斯對抗時應該考慮這一箴言。

Roughing up Vladimir Putin at the recent G20 summit in Brisbane may have given them a warm moral glow but did little to advance peace in Ukraine. Gesture politics does not substitute for a coherent strategy needed to address the most alarming threat to European security since the end of the Soviet Union.

在20國集團(G20)布里斯班峯會上批評弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)，可能會讓西方領導人閃耀出道德的光輝，但對推進烏克蘭和平無濟於事。政治上的姿態，代替不瞭解決自蘇聯解體以來最令人擔憂的歐洲安全威脅所需的連貫性戰略。

Western leaders have been right to sanction Russia for unilaterally redrawing international borders. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine have recreated anarchy in Europe. Such aggression could not pass unanswered.

西方領導人因俄羅斯單方面重新劃定國際邊界而給予制裁是正確的。俄羅斯吞併克里米亞和干預烏克蘭東部在歐洲重新制造了混亂。人們不能對此類行爲無動於衷。

But although sanctions were a necessary punishment they have proved an ineffective deterrent. They have not changed Russian behaviour. Indeed, they may have only worsened it. Their impact has been to boost the regime’s popularity and strengthen the Kremlin’s hardliners, who relish isolation.

然而，儘管制裁是必要的懲罰，但事實證明這種威懾無效。它們沒有改變俄羅斯的行爲。實際上，這些制裁反而讓俄羅斯變本加厲。它們提高了俄羅斯政權的聲望，並增強了克里姆林宮喜歡被孤立的強硬派的勢力。

What next? Realism suggests it is time for the west and Ukraine to try to cut a deal with Russia. The imposition of sanctions – and the threat of more – has provided necessary leverage. For the sake of Ukraine’s stability, the west should use that leverage to achieve the diplomatic solution it can rather than the one it may ideally wish for.

接下來怎麼做？從現實主義出發，西方和烏克蘭現在是時候努力與俄羅斯締結協議了。施加制裁——以及加大制裁的威脅——提供了必要的影響力。爲了烏克蘭的穩定，西方應該利用這種影響力來實現它能夠、而非主觀希望達成的外交解決方案。

The main priority for the west has to be to help a prosperous and secure Ukraine emerge from the turmoil. That is a gargantuan challenge. But it will never succeed with a hostile Russia on its borders (and within its borders) determined to emasculate Ukraine as a political and economic entity.

西方的首要任務必須是幫助烏克蘭擺脫動盪局面，成爲一個繁榮而安全的國家。這是一個巨大的挑戰。但如果在其邊境（及其境內）有一個充滿敵意、決心削弱烏克蘭政治和經濟實力的俄羅斯，該任務將永遠不會取得成功。

One response would be to force Russia to withdraw. But short of starting a third world war, that is not going to happen. The west is not prepared to deploy troops to defend Ukraine, nor – for the moment – is it even willing to supply heavy weapons to Kiev.

一種應對措施將是迫使俄羅斯退卻。但除非發動第三次世界大戰，否則不會發生這種情況。西方沒有準備部署軍隊來保衛烏克蘭，它們現在甚至也不願爲基輔提供重型武器。

Worse, the west is failing to provide the financial support needed to prevent the Ukrainian economy disappearing into a black hole. The economy is forecast to contract by more than 7 per cent this year and the threat of default looms.

更糟糕的是，西方未能爲阻止烏克蘭經濟消失在黑洞中而提供所需的金融支持。預計烏克蘭經濟今年將收縮逾7%，同時其違約風險日益迫近。

The Minsk Protocol, the ceasefire agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine in September under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, provides the basis for a comprehensive political deal.

今年9月，在歐洲安全和合作組織(Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe)的主持下，俄羅斯與烏克蘭簽署了停火協議——《明斯克協議》(Minsk Protocol)，該協議爲相關方簽署一份全面的政治協議奠定了基礎。

On the economy, Kiev should ensure that trade deals with the EU do not entangle its ties with Russia. Before the conflict, Russia accounted for one quarter of Ukraine’s exports. Russia too has a big stake in Ukraine’s economic revival: its banks and exporters are staring at massive losses in one of its most important markets.

就經濟而言，基輔方面應該確保與歐盟(EU)簽署的貿易協議不會連累烏俄關係。在爆發衝突前，俄羅斯佔到烏克蘭出口的四分之一。俄羅斯也與烏克蘭經濟復甦休慼相關：該國銀行和出口商在烏克蘭面臨巨大損失——烏克蘭是俄羅斯最重要的市場之一。

The west should also respond to Mr Putin’s desire to discuss Europe’s security architecture. He should be reminded that Nato’s collective self-defence means what it says, especially in the Baltics. But the west should also accept that Nato will not expand into Ukraine. It would be unwise for the security alliance to push for the inclusion of a country that is so divided.

西方還應該對普京討論歐洲安全架構的願望做出迴應。西方應該提醒普京，北約(Nato)的集體防禦原則不是說着玩的，尤其是在波羅的海地區。但西方也應該接受北約不會擴大至烏克蘭的要求。北約推動將一個四分五裂的國家包括在內不是什麼明智的事情。

Of course, there is no guarantee that Mr Putin would agree – and deliver on – any such deal. His goal may be de facto partition of Ukraine. Moscow has ripped up the Budapest Memorandum it signed in 1994 guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence and so far failed to uphold the Minsk Protocol.

當然，普京並非一定就會同意和履行此類協議。他的目標可能是讓烏克蘭在事實上分裂。莫斯科撕毀了1994年簽署的保證烏克蘭獨立的《布達佩斯安全保障備忘錄》(Budapest memorandum)，而且迄今未能遵守《明斯克協議》。

But as George F Kennan wrote in his famous “X” article in Foreign Affairs in 1947 on how to contain Soviet expansionism, the west’s “demands on Russian policy should be put forward in such a manner as to leave the way open for a compliance not too detrimental to Russian prestige.” Given that Russia’s president insists no Russian forces are present in eastern Ukraine it should be easy enough to magic them away.

但正如喬治•凱南(George Kennan)1947年以“X先生”筆名發表在《外交》雜誌(Foreign Affairs)上的那篇著名的文章——關於如何遏制蘇聯擴張主義——所寫的那樣，西方“要以不易損害其威望的方式向俄國提出要求”。鑑於俄羅斯總統堅稱烏克蘭東部沒有俄羅斯軍隊，那麼這些軍隊魔術般地消失應該不是什麼難事。

If Moscow were to reject a deal, then it would be time to re-read and implement the rest of Kennan’s prescriptions. Then we will be back to the world of counterforce and containment.

如果莫斯科拒絕簽署協議，那麼我們將有必要重讀並實施凱南開出的餘下的處方，屆時世界將會重新陷入對抗和遏制。