石油市場的春天尚未來臨 Chill winds still blow through the oil market

Spring is coming in the oil market. That was the message from the heads of the world’s largest trading houses at the FT’s commodities conference in Lausanne this week. The overwhelming consensus among these influential figures in the market is that crude is unlikely to return to the prices below $30 per barrel that it reached in January, and the trend is now upwards.

石油市場將迎來春天。這是全球各大交易商的掌門人在本週英國《金融時報》洛桑大宗商品會議上傳遞出的信息。這些在石油市場舉足輕重的人物達成了壓倒性的共識，聲稱油價不太可能回到今年1月觸及的每桶30美元以下的水平，現在的趨勢是上行。

The markets do seem to support that interpretation. After a 4 per cent jump on Tuesday, internationally traded Brent crude is almost 60 per cent above its low point in January.

市場走勢似乎確實支持這種解讀。在週二大漲4%以後，在國際上交易的布倫特原油(Brent)價格較1月低點高出近60%。

Even now, prices of about $44 per barrel are still below the level that most people in the oil industry would consider sustainable for the long term, so it is certainly plausible to think that the correction is now under way.

即便現在，每桶約44美元的價格仍低於石油行業多數人認爲長期可持續的水平，因此認爲油價正在修正的看法貌似是合理的。

Before oil producers start planning for happier days, though, there are a couple of more gloomy points that they need to consider.

然而，在石油生產商開始爲更美好的日子做打算時，它們需要思考兩種較爲悲觀的觀點。

First, there are good reasons to think that oil prices could go down again in the short term. And second, even if the longer term trend is upwards, it will be hard to see a return to the prices of about $100 per barrel that seemed normal only two years ago.

首先，我們有充足的理由認爲油價短期內可能會再次走低。其次，即便較長期趨勢是上漲，人們也很難看到油價重新回到每桶100美元左右的水平——兩年前這個水平還顯得很正常。

One immediate spur to prices has been the prospect of the meeting of oil-producing countries, including Russia and most members of Opec, in Doha on Sunday. Several countries have been talking up the prospect that they will confirm the “freeze” in oil production that was provisionally agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia in February, signalling to the market that the excess supply that has been driving down prices will soon disappear.

目前刺激油價的一個直接因素是產油國本週日將在多哈召開會議，包括俄羅斯和石油輸出國組織(Opec，簡稱歐佩克)的多數成員國。幾個國家一直在談論這種前景：他們將證實由俄羅斯和沙特在2月暫時約定的“凍結產量”計劃，從而向市場表明，拉低油價的供應過剩局面將很快消失。

But when Igor Sechin, chairman of the Russian state-controlled oil group Rosneft, told the FT conference that “everyone is expecting the successful outcome of our work” in Doha, he was indulging in wishful thinking.

俄羅斯政府控股的俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)董事長伊戈爾•謝欣(Igor Sechin)在洛桑會議上表示，“所有人都期待我們（在多哈）的工作取得成功的結果。”他這樣想未免太一廂情願了。

For some countries, including Russia, promising not to increase production will merely confirm what they were doing anyway. Others are showing less than resolute commitment to solidarity with other producers. Iraq is rapidly increasing production before the freeze, while Iran has said it will not join in any deal and plans to continue raising its output.

對於包括俄羅斯在內的一些國家而言，承諾不增產只會證實他們現在正在做些什麼。至於其他國家，它們與其他產油國抱團的決心算不得堅定。伊拉克正搶在凍產之前迅速增加產量；伊朗已表態不會加入任何協議，並計劃繼續提高產量。

Regardless of what is said at Doha, the global oil market is likely to remain oversupplied for a while.

不管多哈會議上說了什麼，全球石油市場的供應過剩局面可能仍會持續一段時間。

We have been here before, exactly a year ago. After the steep crash from the summer of 2014, oil rebounded from January to April 2015, and held on over $60 for some time. It looked then as though the worst had passed, too. But in July the oversupply started weighing on the market again, and another leg down in prices began.

我們以前曾經歷過這種情況，準確來說是一年前。在經過2014年夏季油價暴跌後，從2015年1月到4月，油價出現反彈，並在60美元上方維持了一段時間。當時也是這樣，看上去好像最糟糕的時期已經過去。但去年7月，供應過剩開始再次令市場承壓，油價再度下跌。

Since then, the US shale industry has been battling to cut costs and raise productivity so it can survive at lower prices.

此後，美國頁岩油行業一直在努力降低成本和提高生產率，以求在低油價時期維持生存。

The shale industry, which was largely responsible for the oil crash in the first place because of the production boom that began in 2010, has been mauled by lower prices, but its output has not collapsed as many analysts expected, and the principal producers are still in business. Even heavily indebted Chesapeake Energy, seen as one of the most vulnerable, this week managed to secure its future for a while longer with a renegotiated $4bn bank lending facility.

美國頁岩油行業始於2010年的生產熱潮是最初油價暴跌的主要原因，而油價下跌反過來對該行業造成重創，但其產量並沒有像很多分析人士預期的那樣大幅下滑，主要生產商仍在運營。甚至連被視爲最脆弱的生產商之一、負債累累的切薩皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy)本週也爭取到按重新談判的條件維持40億美元的銀行信貸額度，從而確保自己能夠存活得更久一點。

The US shale industry does not work with oil at $40, but at $50 and certainly at $60, companies say they can drill plenty more wells that would be financially viable. Once oil starts returning to those levels, we can expect to see more drilling and more production from the US, in effect putting a ceiling on prices.

如果油價在每桶40美元，美國頁岩油行業無法實現盈利，但生產商們表示，如果油價在50美元，它們可以在財務可行的情況下鑽探更多油井，如果油價在60美元的話就更沒問題了。一旦油價向這些水平迴歸，我們預計將看到來自美國的更多鑽探和生產活動，從而有效爲油價構築上限。

Nothing lasts forever in commodity markets and it is quite possible that rising demand will eventually push crude back above $100 again. But while the worst may now be over for oil producers, those halcyon days of two years ago are likely for the foreseeable future to remain a golden memory.

在大宗商品市場，沒有什麼是永恆的，需求上升很有可能最終將油價重新拉昇至100美元以上。然而，儘管對於石油生產商而言，最糟糕的時期可能已經過去，但在可預見的將來，兩年前的那種盛況仍將是一段美好回憶。