第四次工業革命 希望和危險

The Fourth Industrial Revolution By Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum, 6.99/ $9.99

《第四次工業革命》，克勞斯施瓦布(Klaus Schwab)，世界經濟論壇(WEF)出版，6.99英鎊/9.99美元

The World Economic Forum does a remarkable job of forging the conventional wisdom among the global elite. The trouble is that conventional wisdom is invariably wrong. So what are we to make of the theme of this week’s gathering in Davos: the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution? Peak Tech?

在塑造全球精英的主流觀點方面，世界經濟論壇做出了出色的工作。問題在於，主流觀點往往是錯的。那麼，我們該如何理解本週在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇的主題——第四次工業革命的到來呢？尖峯科技？

The book, written by Klaus Schwab, WEF’s founder and published just ahead of the organisation’s annual meeting atop a Swiss mountain, slaloms through the new technologies of artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, the blockchain, biotechnology and so on. The argument is that the confluence of these technologies amounts to the fourth industrial revolution of the book’s title.

本書由世界經濟論壇創始人克勞斯施瓦布撰寫，並在本屆年會即將於瑞士山巔小鎮達沃斯召開之際出版。該書縱覽了人工智能、機器人技術、物聯網、自動駕駛汽車、3D打印、區塊鏈(blockchain)、生物技術等新科技，主張這些技術彙集在一起，構成了本書標題中所說的“第四次工業革命”。

In case you are wondering, Schwab defines the first three as: the transport and mechanical production revolution of the late 18th century; the mass production revolution of the late 19th century, and the computer revolution of the 1960s.

爲防有讀者不清楚，施瓦布羅列了前三次工業革命：18世紀末的運輸和機械化生產革命、19世紀末的大規模生產革命，以及上世紀60年代的計算機革命。

He accepts that some people might consider the fourth revolution just an extension of the third but argues that the scale, speed and impact of the latest technologies mean they deserve a revolution of their own. “The changes are so profound that, from the perspective of human history, there has never been a time of greater promise or potential peril,” he asserts.

他承認有一些人將第四次革命視爲第三次革命的延續，但他認爲，以規模、速度和影響來看，最新技術稱得上是一次革命。“變革如此深刻，從人類歷史的角度來看，其蘊含的希望和潛在危險超過以往任何時候，”他斷言。

Schwab spells out some of those perils: the unequal division of the spoils of technological advances and the threat of mass unemployment; the erosion of global governance; the potential abuse of robotics, genetic engineering and cyber weapons; the disruption of many established businesses.

施瓦布闡明瞭其中的一些危險：技術進步好處的不平等分配和大規模失業的威脅；全球治理受到削弱；機器人技術、基因工程和網絡武器可能被濫用；許多老牌企業遭到顛覆。

New technologies are hitting both the supply and the demand side of business, meaning it is often far better to own a platform that brings consumers together than the underlying asset. Citing an article on the TechCrunch website, he notes that Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles; Facebook, the most popular media owner, creates no content; Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory; and Airbnb, the largest accommodation provider, owns no property.

新技術對商業的供給方和需求方都造成衝擊，擁有一個將消費者彙集起來的平臺遠好於擁有基礎資產。他引用了TechCrunch網站上的一篇文章，指出世界上最大的打車公司優步(Uber)本身並不擁有車輛；最受歡迎的媒體所有者Facebook沒有創造任何內容；最有價值的零售商阿里巴巴(Alibaba)沒有庫存；最大的住宿供應商Airbnb沒有房產。

In the face of such creative destruction, he notes, the average lifespan of a corporation listed on the S&P index has already dropped from about 60 years to 18. Established companies must rapidly embrace the fourth industrial revolution if they are not to be destroyed by it. “In short, they have to innovate continuously,” he writes, urging companies to move from command-and-control structures to more collaborative teamwork.

面臨這種創造性破壞，他指出，標準普爾(S&P)指數成分股公司的平均壽命已經從約60年降至18年。如果老牌企業不想被第四次工業革命摧毀，它們就必須迅速接受它。“簡而言之，它們必須不斷創新，”施瓦布寫道，他敦促企業從命令和控制結構，轉向更多協作的團隊工作。

As you would expect, though, the global elite’s cheerleaders suggest that promise will ultimately triumph over peril. The fourth industrial revolution is empowering the economically excluded of the world by giving them access to digital networks, increasing the efficiency of organisations, accelerating the development of personalised drugs and — perhaps — providing a technological solution to climate change.

不過，正如你預期的，全球精英的支持者們認爲，希望終將戰勝危險。第四次工業革命讓經濟上處於邊緣地位的羣體能夠接觸數字網絡，從而變得強大；提高了組織效率；加快個性化藥物的開發；此外還可能爲氣候變化提供技術解決方案。

The book’s conclusion follows the classic WEF formula: problems can be solved so long as all reasonable stakeholders pull together in the “spirit of Davos”. Schwab suggests that the fourth industrial revolution has the potential to “robotise humanity”; but, if shaped in a responsive and responsible way, could also catalyse a new cultural renaissance and a true global civilisation, lifting “humanity into a new collective and moral consciousness based on a shared sense of destiny”.

這本書的結論遵循世界經濟論壇的套路：只要所有理性的利益攸關方本着“達沃斯精神”通力合作，難題就能夠解決。施瓦布主張，第四次工業革命有可能“將人類機器人化”；但是，如果以一種響應式的、負責任的方式進行，這次革命也可能催化新的文化復興和真正的全球化文明，使“人類基於一種共同的命運感，昇華到一種新的集體和道德意識”。

The book is useful inflight reading matter for chief executives on their way to Davos. But, despite its release on Amazon, one might question its appeal to a broader readership. It is written in a strangely antiseptic Globish, full of paradigm shifts and multi-stakeholder co-operation.

對於即將前往達沃斯赴會的首席執行官們而言，這本書是有用的機上讀物。然而，儘管這本書在亞馬遜(Amazon)上發行，人們可能質疑這本書對廣大讀者的吸引力。全書以一種異常樸實無華的全球語撰寫，充斥着範式轉變、多方利益相關者的合作。

It is also, as Schwab admits, something of a rush job, amassing ideas culled from his many meetings with Davos luminaries (carefully noted in the acknowledgments). He tells us that is a “crowdsourced book, the product of the collected enlightened wisdom of the Forum’s activities”. Yet it also bears the heavy imprint of Schwab himself, who has presided over Davos since 1971. The word “I” appears 75 times in the text.

施瓦布也坦言，這本書成書較爲倉促，彙集了他與許多達沃斯座上客（他在致謝聲明中仔細地記錄下來）接觸中產生的想法。他告訴我們，這是一本“集思廣益的書，是世界經濟論壇活動中集體的開明見解的產物”。然而，自1971年以來主持達沃斯論壇的施瓦布也在這本書中留下了深深的個人印記。“我”這個字在文中出現了75次。