世界銀行:全球經濟增速見頂

Global growth appears to have peaked, with demographics, a lack of investment, a slowing in productivity gains and tightening monetary policy placing limits on economic expansion, the World Bank said.

世界銀行(World Bank)表示，全球經濟增速似已見頂，人口結構、缺少投資、生產率增速放緩以及貨幣政策收緊將限制經濟擴張。

The world’s economic output grew 3 per cent last year as more than half of economies accelerated, thanks to a rebound in investment, manufacturing activity and trade, bank economists said. The global economy is expected to maintain that rough growth level through 2020.

世行經濟學家表示，去年全球經濟增長3%，逾一半的經濟體增長加速，這得益於投資、製造業活動和貿易回暖。據該行預計，從今年起到2020年，全球經濟年增速將繼續保持與去年大致相當的水平。

But that may be as good as it gets, according to the bank’s annual report on the state of the global economy. The problem facing the world is that after years of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, most advanced and developing economies have closed the output gap between actual and potential economic growth.

但根據世行關於全球經濟狀況的年度報告，這或許是最好的局面了。當前世界面臨的問題是，自2008年金融危機過去以後經過多年的復甦，多數發達和發展中經濟體的實際增速已經接近潛在增速。

Moreover, it is hard to see that changing unless governments embrace the sort of reforms and investment drives that the bank and other institutions have been demanding for years.

另外，除非各國政府實施世行和其他機構多年來一直呼籲的改革和投資計劃，否則這種局面很難改變。

“If you step out of the [current] snapshot [of strong growth] and look at?.?.?.?the historical progression?.?.?.?what you actually observe is that, while the growth is real and welcome, the potential growth of the global economy is going to be somewhat limited in the future,” Shantayanan Devarajan, the bank’s senior director for development economics, said on Tuesday.

世行發展經濟學高級總監尚塔亞南?德瓦拉詹(Shantayanan Devarajan)週二表示：“如果你跳出（對當前強勁增長的）印象，觀察……歷史演變……實際上你會注意到，儘管增長是真實且可喜的，但未來全球經濟的潛在增速將在某種程度上受限。”

As a group, advanced economies are expected to slow in the coming years as they run up against full employment and as central bankers raise rates to contain inflation, according to the World Bank. Already, the bank said, it expected growth in advanced economies to slow from 2.3 per cent last year to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent by 2020.

世行預計，未來幾年，在充分就業和央行爲控制通脹而加息的情況下，發達經濟體整體上將放緩增長。該行表示，今年發達經濟體的增速將從去年的2.3%放慢至2.2%，到2020年將降至1.7%。

But emerging and developing economies, which grew by 4.3 per cent as a group last year, are also likely to hit ceilings and contribute less to global growth.

另一方面，去年增長4.3%的新興經濟體和發展中經濟體也可能觸及天花板，對全球增長的貢獻減少。

In many of the major emerging economies that have for years fuelled global expansion the underlying potential growth has fallen considerably over the past decade. It is likely to continue doing so over the next 10 years, the bank said.

多年來，主要新興經濟體帶動了全球經濟的擴張，其中很多新興經濟體的基本潛在增速在過去10年已經大幅下滑，世行預計未來10年它們可能還將延續這種下滑勢頭。

That reality, the bank’s economists say, is the result mainly of long-term demographic changes. Countries such as China are seeing their labour forces shrink as populations age. That has coincided with slowing productivity growth.

世行經濟學家表示，這種情況主要是長期人口結構變化所導致的。伴隨着人口老齡化，中國等國家的勞動力規模萎縮。與此同時，生產率增速正在放緩。

Either could be addressed with investment and innovation and the case for encouraging both was now “absolutely critical”, Mr Devarajan said.

德瓦拉詹表示，這兩個問題都可依靠投資和創新來解決，如今鼓勵投資和創新有着極爲迫切的理由。

The concerns over the long-term future of the global economy also coincide with fears in the short term.

全球經濟的未來可以說是既有遠慮又有近憂。

Ayhan Kose, one of the authors of the new report, said “downside risks continue to dominate” for the global economy this year.

這份新報告的作者之一艾漢?科澤(Ayhan Kose)表示，今年全球經濟“仍然是下行風險爲主”。

Among those risks is a sudden rise in the now-low borrowing costs that have helped fuel much of the recovery in recent years, either from quicker than anticipated rate rises from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks, or because of growing concerns about soaring capital markets.

一個風險是眼下處於低水平的借貸成本（近年來幫助推動經濟復甦的一大因素）可能突然上升，要麼是因爲美聯儲(Fed)和其他央行的加息步伐快於預期，要麼是因爲資本市場飆升日益讓投資者擔憂。

Protectionism and a resulting slowdown in global trade also remained a risk, especially as the 4.3 per cent increase in the volume of goods and services traded last year had been so important as an engine for broader growth.

保護主義以及由此引發的全球貿易增長放緩也是風險之一，尤其是考慮到去年全球商品和服務貿易增長4.3%是整體經濟增長的重要引擎。

Moreover, Mr Kose said the slowdown in the world’s potential growth had also made it more vulnerable to future shocks.

此外，科澤表示，潛在增速放緩也將使未來全球經濟更容易受到衝擊。

Short of an unexpected surge in productivity gains, the world economy looked as if it faced a “mediocre future”, he said. “This is the time to undertake responsible forward-looking policies.”

科澤表示，除非生產率出人意料地迅猛增長，全球經濟似乎面臨着“平庸的未來”。“現在是時候採取負責任的前瞻性政策了。”