警惕世界經濟的通縮威脅
Why did so many market pundits fail to foresee the decline in yields across the developed world in 2014?
The short answer is that they were obsessed with the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve’s retreat from unconventional measures while neglecting the importance of global imbalances. In effect, the world has been prey to a growing problem of deficient demand, leading to disinflation, while the US has been growing too sedately to spark the inflationary pressures that would have called for much tighter monetary policy. There is a risk that forecasters will make the same mistake in 2015.
一個簡短回答是，他們過分糾結於美聯儲(Fed)退出非常規政策的潛在影響，同時忽略了全球不平衡的重要性。實際上，世界一直受困於一個日益嚴重的問題——需求不足（導致通脹速度減緩），而美國在激發通脹壓力（這種壓力會要求貨幣政策大大收緊）方面過於不緊不慢。Consider the state of the world’s excess savers, starting with Japan. There Abenomics is having difficulty addressing deflation and raising economic growth. Weak demand resulting from adverse demographics and the recent consumption tax increase means the country is dependent on yet more bond buying and further yen devaluation to generate the cost-push pressure that would enable the Bank of Japan to meet its 2 per cent inflation target.
下面考察一下世界上儲蓄率過高國家的狀況，就從日本開始。在日本，安倍經濟學(Abenomics)沒能消除通縮並提高經濟增長率。不利的人口結構導致的需求萎靡，加上近來的消費稅提高，意味着日本目前要依賴購買更多債券、加大日元貶值力度，才能生成“成本驅動型”壓力，進而使日本央行(BoJ)達成其2%的通脹目標。
China, meantime, is going through an awkward transition whereby its astonishingly high rate of investment is beginning to decline. Domestic demand growth has flagged. This has contributed to the fall in global commodity and energy prices. At the same time China faces a more competitive export environment as others, spurred by Japan, engage in competitive devaluations.
與此同時，中國正在經歷一次尷尬的轉型，該國極高的投資率正開始下降。中國國內需求增長已放慢，這在一定程度上拉低了全球大宗商品和能源的價格。同時，中國在出口方面正面臨更激烈的競爭，因爲在日本的刺激下，其他國家也開始實施競爭性貨幣貶值。As for the eurozone, it is being driven towards deflation by a moralistic drive for austerity which does nothing to arrest rising debt as a percentage of gross domestic product because the harder hit economies have shrunk. Disagreement on the governing council of the European Central Bank ensures a crabwise progression towards full scale government bond buying without which its inflation target will not be met.
至於歐元區，由於受衝擊更嚴重的經濟體已萎縮，出於良心的追求緊縮對於阻止債務對國內生產總值(GDP)比例升高毫無作用，反而正將該地區推向通縮。由於歐洲央行(ECB)管理委員會存在分歧，使得歐元區只會以龜速邁向全面的債券購買——若不實施債券購買計劃，歐洲央行的通脹率目標將無法實現。From a rather different perspective Richard Batley of Lombard Street Research argues that global deflationary pressure has also increased as a result of the relative decline in US economic power. For much of the postwar period the US acted as a clearing house for global demand and supply by maintaining open markets that absorbed the rest of the world’s goods. But the supply clearing capacity of the US ran out after 2008 because it had exhausted its debt capacity. Instead of excess supply being cleared through ever higher US household debt, it is now being cleared through lower prices.
朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的理查德•巴特利(Richard Batley)視角相當不同。他認爲，導致全球通縮壓力升高的另一個原因，是美國經濟實力的相對衰落。冷戰後大部分時間裏，美國一直維持着開放的市場，吸收了世界其他地區的產品，由此扮演着全球供需清算中心的角色。但2008年之後，由於美國的舉債能力達到極限，因此其出清供給的能力也被耗盡。目前，過度供給無法通過不斷升高的美國家庭債務出清，供給出清正通過價格降低來實現。All the high saving economies run current account surpluses that require equivalent capital outflows. As their currencies weaken, capital in these countries confronts low yields at home — spectacularly so in the case of Japan and the eurozone — and higher US Treasury yields, along with further potential strengthening of the dollar. This provides much of the explanation for last year’s decline in Treasury yields despite the maturing of the economic recovery, which would normally have prompted rising yields.
所有高儲蓄經濟體都存在經常賬目盈餘，這就要求等額的資本賬戶赤字。由於這些經濟體的貨幣貶值，這些國家的資金面對的是較低的國內收益率（日本和歐元區的情況最爲明顯）、以及較高的美國國債收益率，此外美元還有進一步升值的可能性。這在很大程度上解釋了，爲何去年儘管經濟復甦企穩，但美國國債收益率仍然下降——在正常情況下，經濟復甦企穩原本應該會推高美國國債收益率。The combination of dollar strength and declining Treasury yields seems likely to persist. Elsewhere in the developed world yields are set to rise, chiefly where default risk enters the picture, as in Greece on the basis of recent political instability.
美元走強與美國國債收益率不斷下降並存的局面看上去可能會延續下去。在所有其他發達國家，國債收益率應該會上升，尤其是出現違約風險的國家，鑑於近來不穩定的政治局勢，希臘可算一例。Markets are proving remarkably sanguine about other peripheral eurozone sovereign debt. Given the structural flaws in the monetary union, the ECB’s dilatory approach to quantitative easing and German-led fiscal conservatism, that may not last. More generally, against the background of a rise in non-financial debt in advanced economies from 212 per cent of GDP in 1999 to 279 per cent in 2014, of which more than half has taken place since the global financial crisis, occasional neurotic spasms in the markets are inevitable.
實際上，市場對其他歐元區外圍國家的主權債務顯出了不同尋常的樂觀。鑑於歐元貨幣聯盟的結構性缺陷、歐洲央行在施行量化寬鬆上的拖拉，以及德國主導的財政保守主義，這種樂觀可能不會持續下去。總的來說，在發達經濟體債務對GDP比例從1999年的212%升高至2014年的279%的背景下（一大半升幅是在全球金融危機爆發後完成的），市場時不時“抽風”是不可避免的。Emerging markets will have a much tougher time in this deflationary world. They may again become an important locus of global financial instability, and not just in Russia. US dollar denominated non-financial debt outside the US now stands at more than $9tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements, compared with $6tn at the start of 2010. The biggest increase has been in corporate bonds issued by emerging market companies tapping investors desperate for yield. The currency mismatch means a strengthening dollar tightens financial conditions as attempts to pay down dollar debt forces the dollar higher, causing a vicious circle.
在這個以通縮爲主題的世界裏，各個新興市場將迎來一段艱難得多的時期。不只是俄羅斯，這些新興市場都可能再度成爲全球金融動盪的重要動盪點。國際清算銀行(BIS)數據顯示，如今美國以外地區以美元計價的非金融企業債務超過了9萬億美元，而2010年初這個數字爲6萬億美元。增加比例最高的是新興市場公司發行的公司債，它們利用的是某些投資者渴望高收益的心理。這種貨幣錯配意味着，美元走強會讓資金狀況更加緊張，因爲嘗試清償美元債務會迫使美元進一步走高，從而引發惡性循環。This is a fearful world in which geopolitical risk, competitive devaluations and protectionist pressure could bring a descent into intractable deflation and long-depressed yields in the absence of robust policy.
這是一個令人擔心的世界：若不出臺強有力的政策，地緣政治風險、競爭性貨幣貶值和貿易保護主義壓力，可能讓經濟滑向難以消除的通縮和長期的低收益率。The writer is an FT columnist
本文作者爲《金融時報》專欄作家
