蘋果評級遭無名機構下調 股價下跌

Believe it or not, Apple shares can go down.

信不信由你，蘋果(Apple)的股價也是會下跌的。

The stock is selling off this afternoon, one day after the tech juggernaut surpassed Microsoft as the largest U.S. company ever, measured by stock-market value.

蘋果股票週二下午遭到拋售，而一天前，這家科技巨頭剛剛超過微軟(Microsoft)，成爲史上市值最高的美國公司。

Shares are down 1.8% at $653.32, reversing earlier gains. The stock hit a fresh all-time high of $674.88 in midday trading, but started selling off as word circulated that a research outfit called Oracle Investment Research had downgraded Apple to hold from buy. (We'll admit, we had never heard of this firm until today when news of the downgrade starting spreading across Twitter).

蘋果股價週二下跌了1.8%，至653.32美元，扭轉了之前的漲勢。週二午盤，蘋果股價創下歷史新高，達到674.88美元。但是，受研究機構Oracle Investment Research將蘋果股票評級從買入下調至持有這一傳聞的影響，投資者午後開始拋售蘋果股票。(我們承認，評級下調的消息週二起在推特(Twitter)上被轉發之前，我們從沒有聽說過這個研究機構的大名。)

"The hype concerns us," Oracle's Laurence Balter wrote in a note to clients, as he compared the current frenzy to when Microsoft and Cisco Systems previously were market-cap kings.

該機構的巴爾特(Laurence Balter)在給客戶的報告裏寫道：炒作令我們擔憂。他認爲眼下這股投資蘋果的熱潮有點像微軟和思科系統(Cisco Systems)登頂市值冠軍寶座時受到的禮遇。

He cut his price target to $650 from $670.

他將自己對蘋果股價的目標值從670美元調低至650美元。

Balter expressed concern about Apple's potential latest endeavor into the television business. Apple is seeking to shake up the TV market with a device that can carry live television, although it remains to be seen whether cable operators will bite.

巴爾特對蘋果可能進軍電視機業務的最新嘗試表示擔憂。蘋果目前正設法通過一個播放電視直播節目的產品來重組電視市場，但有線運營商是否會"上鉤"尚不得而知。

"We believe entering the low margin world of television set top boxes and TV is fraught with margin danger," Balter says.

巴爾特說，我們認爲進入機頂盒和電視機這個低利潤率行業存在利潤率危險。

An Apple downgrade doesn't happen all that often, especially as most of Wall Street remains bullish. Last week Jefferies Group boosted its Apple price target to $900. And at least two analysts have predicted this year that Apple would top $1,000 a share, which would represent a 50% gain from Monday's closing level.

蘋果股票評級遭下調的事情並不經常發生，特別是在大多數華爾街人士對蘋果信心滿滿的時候。上週，傑富瑞集團(Jefferies Group)將蘋果目標價上調至900美元。至少有兩位分析師已在今年預測稱，蘋果股價將突破每股1,000美元，這意味着蘋果要在週一收盤價的基礎上再漲50%。

One of those analysts is Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets, who earlier today published a note calling Apple a "trillion-dollar baby." Apple surpassing the market value of Microsoft's 1999 peak removes "a key sentiment barrier" that had been keeping a lid on the stock in recent months, he says. And now investors should think of Apple's market cap in "trillions" and not "billions."

美資券商Topeka Capital Markets的懷特(Brian White)就是這樣一位分析師。週二早些時候，他發佈了一份報告，並將蘋果稱爲"萬億美元寶貝"(trillion-dollar baby)。他說，蘋果打破了微軟在1999年創造的市值紀錄，這會移除近幾個月來遏制該股的關鍵性情緒障礙。懷特說，如今投資者應該用"萬億美元"這一數量級來暢想蘋果未來的市值。

He has an $1,111 price target on Apple, which would carry its market cap above $1 trillion.

他認爲蘋果股價會增至1,111美元，屆時蘋果市值將突破1萬億美元大關。

Another bullish theme to keep in mind is valuation. Apple is much cheaper than previous companies that had high market caps. Companies including Cisco Systems, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Intel and Microsoft at one time had market caps that approached or topped $500 billion. But they also had P/E ratios that topped 60.

還有一個需要牢記的看漲主題是估值。蘋果現在的股價遠遠低於那些曾擁有龐大市值的公司。思科系統、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)、通用電氣(General Electric)、英特爾(Intel)和微軟等公司的市值都曾逼近或超過5,000億美元。不過，它們的市盈率也都曾超過60倍。

Apple's forward-year P/E ratio is 14.8, according to FactSet

據FactSet統計，蘋果的預期市盈率爲14.8倍。

"None of these companies delivered the annual [earnings] growth that Apple has achieved over the past seven years," White says.

懷特說，上述這些公司沒有一家的年利潤增速能比得上蘋果過去七年的表現。

Apple also doesn't dominate its broad sector like Microsoft, Intel or Cisco did at their peaks. Microsoft held more than a 90% market share for PC operating systems at one time, Intel had 80% of the PC processor market and Cisco had more than 70% of the networking market, White notes. Apple, on the other hand, only holds a fraction of the mobile market, while dominating the tablet market.

蘋果目前並沒有在其主營領域處於支配地位，而微軟、英特爾或思科系統都曾在巔峯時期獲得過這一地位。懷特在報告中指出，微軟曾一度控制着個人電腦操作系統逾90%的市場份額，英特爾曾佔有80%的個人電腦處理器市場，思科在網絡市場中的份額也曾達到70%以上。反觀蘋果，它佔移動市場的份額僅爲很小一部分，儘管在平板電腦市場處於支配地位。

So while there are many reasons to be bullish, the big question is how long can Apple keep up the dominance? The bigger it gets, the harder it is to keep growing at a speed that will keep pleasing Wall Street.

雖然看漲蘋果的理由有很多，但目前一個很重要的問題是：蘋果的這種支配地位還能保持多久？這個地位越鞏固，蘋果就越難保持令華爾街滿意的增長速度。

Balter of Oracle Investment cited a famous quote in his report: "Anything that can't go on forever…will end."

巴爾特在報告中引用了一句名言：任何事情若無法永遠持續，則必將終止。