全球經濟復甦“普遍而穩固”

AlMost a decade after the world economy was hit by financial crisis, the global recovery has finally become “broad-based and stable”, according to a tracking index by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times.

根據布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)和英國《金融時報》聯合編制的一項追蹤指數，在世界經濟遭遇金融危機近10年後，全球復甦終於變得“普遍而穩固”。

The findings, released ahead of this week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, will reinforce optimism that most economies around the world are showing signs of a consistent, but far from stellar, recovery. But fears remain that political uncertainty could yet throw countries off course.

在本週國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)年會之前發佈的這批研究發現，將加強人們的樂觀情緒：世界各地多數經濟體出現了一致、但遠非亮麗的復甦跡象。但人們仍擔心，政治不確定性仍可能會導致某些國家偏離軌道。

The Brookings-FT Tiger index — tracking indices for the global economy — suggests growth has picked up sharply in both advanced economies and emerging markets in recent months. The index, which covers all major advanced and developing economies, compares many separate indicators of real activity, financial markets and investor confidence with their historical averages for the global economy and for each country separately.

布魯金斯學會－英國《金融時報》“全球經濟復甦追蹤指標”(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, 簡稱Tiger)顯示，近幾個月來，發達經濟體和新興市場經濟體的增長都已明顯提速。涵蓋所有大型發達經濟體和發展中經濟體的該指數，把有關全球經濟和各國實際經濟活動、金融市場和投資者信心的多項不同指標與其歷史平均值進行了比較。

The Tiger index suggests growth in emerging markets has picked up sharply since the oil price fall hit output in 2015. Having languished well below historic average levels this time last year, the index for emerging market growth has climbed to a level not seen since early 2013.

Tiger指數表明，自2015年油價下跌導致產出下降以來，新興市場經濟體的增長顯著提速。去年此時，新興市場增長指數曾大幅低於歷史平均水平，但如今已攀升至2013年初以來未曾見到的水平。

China and India appear to have weathered recent rocky periods and indicators for growth are back above historic averages for both countries. The Chinese economy grew 6.7 per cent last year, its slowest rate since 1990, while Narendra Modi’s attempts to demonetise the Indian economy last year weighed on the country’s performance. But the indicators suggest growth in both countries is now picking up.

中國和印度似乎已挺過了最近的艱難時期，增長指標都已高於本國的歷史平均水平。去年中國經濟增長率達6.7%，爲1990年以來增速最慢的一年，而去年納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)企圖消除經濟中的現鈔，一度令本國經濟承壓。但多項指標顯示，如今兩國的增長正在提速。