社科院發佈藍皮書 明年經濟增速放緩至6.5%

China's economy will expand by around 6.5% year-on-year in 2017, and Consumer Price Index inflation will moderately rise to 2.2%, according to forecasts in a blue book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) last Monday.

中國社科院上週一發布的藍皮書預測，2017年，我國經濟將同比增長6.5%左右，居民消費價格指數將溫和上漲至2.2%。

No economic hard landing will occur, according to the blue book.

該藍皮書稱，我國經濟不會發生硬着陸。

Key indicators, such as fixed-asset investment and retail sales growth, will ease moderately next year, it said.

藍皮書稱，明年，固定資產投資和零售總額等關鍵指標的增速均會出現小幅回落。

But yuan-denominated export growth will pick up to from 4% to 6% in 2017, said Jin Baisong, a researcher from the Ministry of Commerce.

商務部研究員金柏鬆稱，不過2017年按人民幣標價的出口將增長4%-6%。

"The yuan's depreciation against the US dollar may range from 3% to 5% next year, but seen from the middle and long term, the dollar may peak by 2018, and after that, it will start to fall," he said.

他表示："明年，人民幣兌美元可能貶值3-5%，但從中長期看，美元或於2018年前達到峯值，之後將開始回落。"

The CASS blue book also called for a more pro-active fiscal policy to stabilize growth next year.

中科院藍皮書還呼籲，明年應加大積極財政政策的實施力度來穩增長。

The fiscal deficit can be allowed to moderately rise and more tax cuts should be available to enterprises, it suggested.

該藍皮書建議，適度擴大財政赤字規模、更多地降低企業稅費負擔。