數據表明中國經濟明顯放緩
China’s economy is slowing at a much sharper rate than previously thought, according to a raft of data out Tuesday.
週二公佈的一系列數據顯示，中國經濟放緩的幅度遠遠超過之前預期的水平。Figures for industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets in the first two months of the year all fell well short of market expectations, prompting fresh speculation that Beijing will have to resort to more stimulus measures to meet what is already its most modest growth target in over 20 years.
今年前兩個月，中國的工業產值、零售銷售額和固定資產投資增速都遠低於市場預期。這引發了對當局將出臺更多刺激措施的猜測，政府或將不得不動用這些手段來實現經濟增長目標，儘管該目標已經降至二十多年來的最低點。
The slowdown in China is widely seen as one of the biggest threats to the world economy this year, with the Federal Reserve also singling it out as a particular risk to the U.S. recovery.
外界普遍認爲，中國經濟放緩是今年全球經濟面臨的最大威脅之一。美聯儲也將其視爲美國經濟復甦的特定風險之一。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output in January and February was up only 6.8% from a year earlier, the slowest since the trough of the 2009 downturn, and clearly below the 7.8% rate forecast by economists. At the same time, the rate of growth in investment in fixed assets fell to 13.9% from 15.7% in December.
據中國國家統計局公佈，今年1-2月份國內工業總產值同比僅增長6.8%，這是2009年中國經濟觸底以來的最低增速，而且明顯低於經濟學家預測的7.8%。同時，固定資產投資增速也從2014年12月的15.7%降至13.9%。China bundles many of its data for the first two months of the year in order to smooth out the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which can fall in either month.
爲了減輕春節假期對數據帶來的影響，中國政府會把每年前兩個月的多項經濟數據合併後公佈。Government officials have been generally sanguine about signs of slowing industrial growth, as it’s in line with their longer-term strategy of re-orienting the economy more to domestic consumption and services.
政府官員對於工業增長放緩的跡象普遍持樂觀態度，因爲這和中國的長期戰略一致——讓經濟增長更倚重於國內消費和服務業的拉動。But the figures showed that consumption, too, is slowing appreciably–albeit to rates that developed economies would consider alarmingly high. Retail sales grew 10.7% on the year, down from a rate of 11.9% in December.
但週二公佈的數據表明，消費增速也明顯下滑。儘管相對於發達經濟體來說，這樣的增長水平依然非常高。今年1-2月份，中國社會消費品零售總額同比增長10.7%，低於去年12月的11.9%。For the moment, the services sector is still creating more than enough jobs to offset labor-shedding in a manufacturing sector that is bearing the brunt of the slowdown. However, the newspaper China News Tuesday quoted China’s Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Yin Weimin as saying that the government’s employment goals will be “difficult to achieve” if the slowdown continues.
目前，服務業創造的就業機會仍足以抵消製造業裁員的影響，經濟滑坡給後者帶來的衝擊最大。不過，中新社週二報道，中國人力資源和社會保障部部長尹蔚民表示，如果經濟繼續放緩，要完成政府的就業目標“任務十分艱鉅”。Such comments have raised the expectation of more stimulus, due to Beijing’s increasing focus on employment levels. Analysts at ANZ bank in Hong Kong note that around 15 million students will graduate from vocation, technical or middle schools this year, with many more migrating from rural areas to cities in search of work.
由於政府日益重視就業水平，這樣的表態擡高了外界對更多刺激措施的預期。澳新銀行駐香港分析師指出，包括中專、技校和初中高中畢業生在內，今年中國城鎮新增勞動力將達到1500萬人，進城務工人員的數量也將大幅上升。Last week, China joined the swelling ranks of those countries that have relaxed monetary policy to support growth. The central bank cut its reserve requirement ratio for large banks by 0.50 percent to 19.5%, freeing up some 600 billion yuan ($96 billion) for the banks to deploy. It has also cut official interest rates twice in three months, although official rates don’t have quite the same impact in China as they do in developed markets, owing to the way financial markets are regulated.
越來越多的國家都已通過放鬆貨幣政策來支持經濟增長。上週，中國也加入了這一行列。中國央行將存款準備金率下調0.5個百分點至19.5%，從而爲銀行提供了6000億元人民幣（約合960億美元）可用資金。該行還在三個月內兩次下調基準利率，只是受中國的金融市場監管方式影響，基準利率在中國的作用和發達國家不完全一樣。
