意大利公投可能引爆銀行業危機

Up to eight of Italy’s troubled banks risk failing if prime minister Matteo Renzi loses a constitutional referendum next weekend and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalising them, officials and senior bankers say.

多名官員和資深銀行人士表示，如果意大利總理馬泰奧.倫齊(Matteo Renzi)在有關憲法改革的公投中失利，隨之引發的市場動盪令投資者不敢對意大利的困境銀行進行資本重組，那麼，該國就有多達八家這樣的銀行面臨倒閉風險。

Mr Renzi, who says he will quit if he loses the referendum, had championed a market solution to solve the problems of Italy’s EURO4tn banking system and avoid a vote-losing “resolution” of Italian banks under new EU rules.

倫齊曾表示，如果公投失敗他將辭去總理一職。他此前支持以一種市場化解決方案解決意大利4萬億歐元銀行體系面臨的問題，避免根據歐盟(EU)新規則對意大利的銀行進行會令選票流失的“清算”。

Resolution, a new regulatory mechanism, restructures and, if necessary, winds up a bank by imposing losses on both equity and debt investors, particularly controversial in Italy, where millions of individual investors have bought bank bonds.

清算是一種新的監管機制，它會通過將虧損同時轉嫁給股權和債券投資者來重組銀行，並在必要時對其清盤。這在意大利尤其具有爭議，因爲該國有數百萬散戶投資者買入了銀行的債券。

The situation is being closely watched by financiers and policymakers across Europe and beyond, who worry that a mass failure of Italian banks could trigger panic across the eurozone banking system.

歐洲各國和其他地方的金融家和政策制定者正在密切關注這一局面，他們擔心意大利的銀行大規模倒閉可能引發整個歐元區銀行體系的恐慌。

In the event of a “No” vote and Mr Renzi’s exit, bankers fear protracted uncertainty during the creation of a technocratic government. Lack of clarity over a new finance minister may lethally prolong market jitters about Italy’s banks. Italian lenders have more than halved in value this year on concerns about their non-performing loans.

一旦公投的結果是對憲法改革說“不”，導致倫齊辭職，銀行人士擔心在創建一個技術官僚政府期間將出現漫長的不確定性。新財長人選不明朗的狀況，可能會致命地延長市場對意大利各銀行的緊張不安。今年，由於擔心意大利各銀行的不良貸款，這些銀行的市值已縮水一半以上。

Italy has eight banks known to be in various stages of distress: its third largest by assets, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, mid-sized banks Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Carige, and four small banks rescued last year: Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara.

意大利已知有八家銀行處於不同階段的困境，這些銀行包括該國資產排名第三的西雅那銀行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)；三家中等規模銀行：維琴察大衆銀行(Popolare di Vicenza)、威尼託銀行(Veneto Banca)及卡里奇銀行(Carige)；以及四家去年受到救助的小銀行：伊特魯里亞銀行(Banca Etruria)、CariChieti銀行、馬爾凱銀行(Banca delle Marche)及CariFerrara銀行。