2050年全球五分之四的老年人口將會居住在新興市場

Four-fifths of the world’s elderly population will live in emerging markets by 2050, upending the view that ageing is primarily an issue for developed countries.

到2050年，全球五分之四的老年人口將會居住在新興市場，這顛覆了老齡化主要是發達國家問題的觀點。

China alone will see the number of over-60s jump from 209m (15 per cent of the population) today to 492m (36 per cent) by the middle of the century, according to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Public finances in countries ranging from Brazil to Turkey are also likely to be put under strain by a surge in retirees.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)估計，到本世紀中葉，僅中國一個國家的60歲以上人口就會從如今的2.09億（占人口總數的15%）大幅增至4.92億（占人口總數的36%）。從巴西到土耳其，許多國家的公共財政也可能因退休人口飆升而承壓。

“We are living in the midst of the most remarkable demographic transition in history with life expectancy [likely] to reach 77.1 by 2050, versus 48 in 1950, the global 60-plus population [expected] to grow to 2.1bn by 2050, versus 901m today, and life expectancy increasing by one year every five years,” the bank says in a report entitled The Silver Economy — Global Ageing Primer.

該行在題爲《銀髮經濟——全球老齡化初階》(The Silver Economy — Global Ageing Primer)的報告中表示：“我們正置身於史上最引人注目的人口結構轉變過程中，到2050年預期壽命有望達到77.1歲，遠高於1950年的48歲，到2050年全球60歲以上人口預計將增至21億，遠高於如今的9.01億，預期壽命每5年延長一歲。”

“The extension of average lifespan is one of the greatest achievements of humanity,” BofA adds, citing UN forecasts that while the global population is expected to have risen 3.7 times between 1950 and 2050, the size of the 60-plus demographic is predicted to rise tenfold over the same period, and those 80-plus to rise 26-fold.

美銀美林在報告中補充稱：“平均壽命延長是人類最偉大的成就之一。”它援引聯合國的預測稱，儘管預計全球人口從1950年到2050年將增長3.7倍，但同期60歲以上人口的規模預計將增長10倍，80歲以上人口增長26倍。

The document builds on figures showing a striking rise in longevity in sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, since 2000, with 30 countries seeing life expectancy rise more than 10 per cent in the past 15 years.

該報告建立在如下數據基礎之上：自2000年以來，全球最貧窮的地區——撒哈拉以南非洲的預期壽命顯著上升，30個國家的預期壽命在過去15年裏增長10%以上。

Given the dramatic trends, BofA forecasts that by 2050 “emerging markets all over the world will be as old as Japan is today”.

鑑於這些戲劇化的趨勢，美銀美林預計，到2050年，“全世界新興市場的老年人口比例將和現在的日本一樣高”。

In China, for instance, based on UN data, it estimates that 27.6 per cent of the population will be aged 60-plus by 2050 (up from 8.2 per cent as of 2010), compared with 22.9 per cent in Japan today. It estimates that 22.8 per cent of Brazilians and 20.9 per cent of Russians will also be sexagenarians or older.

例如，該行根據聯合國數據估計，在中國，到2050年27.6%的人口將是60歲以上（2010年該比例是8.2%），而日本現在的比例是22.9%。美銀美林估計，屆時巴西60歲以上的老年人口比例也將達到22.8%，俄羅斯將達到20.9%。

Overall, BofA envisages that 80 per cent of the over-60s will live in emerging markets by 2050, with a quarter of the population in both Asia and Latin America being of this age.

整體而言，美銀美林估計，到2050年，在60歲以上的老年人當中，80%將居住在新興市場，亞洲和拉丁美洲有四分之一人口將是60歲以上的老年人。

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 61 per cent of these seniors by 2050, and two-thirds of the rise in those aged 60-plus, as the first chart shows. Africa and Latin America are expected to account for a further quarter of the growth in seniors, with Europe and North America seeing barely any rise, despite the panic about ageing in these regions.

正如第一張圖表所示，到2050年，預計亞太地區的60歲以上老年人口占到全球的61%，而且60歲以上新增人口的三分之二來自該地區。預計非洲和拉美將佔到新增老年人口的另外四分之一，而歐洲和北美的老年人口幾乎沒有增長，儘管這些地區對老齡化感到恐慌。

Moreover, this is not simply a case of emerging markets mirroring the trends already witnessed in the developed world. Instead, the transformation in the emerging world is happening at a rate inconceivable to most westerners.

此外，這不只是新興市場重現發達世界趨勢的問題。相反，新興市場國家人口結構的這種轉變速度對大多數西方人來說是不可想象的。

BofA quotes data suggesting that it took France 115 years to double the share of its population aged 65-plus from 7 to 14 per cent, Sweden 85 years, Australia 73 years and the US 69 years.

美銀美林援引數據顯示，法國65歲以上人口比例從7%增至14%用了115年，瑞典用了85年，澳大利亞用了73年，而美國用了69年。

In contrast, South Korea is expected to see the same transformation in just 18 years, Thailand and Brazil in 21 years, China in 23, Tunisia in 24 and Chile in 26, as the second chart shows.

相比之下，如第二張圖表顯示，預計韓國在短短18年就會完成同樣的轉變，泰國和巴西是21年，中國是23年，突尼斯是24年，智利是26年。

Moreover, it is only likely to take South Korea a further nine years to see its 65-plus cohort rise by a further 7 per cent of the population to 21 per cent.

此外，預計韓國65歲以上老年人口比例很可能再過9年就會進一步上升7個百分點，至21%。

China is expected to witness the same transformation in 11 years, Thailand in 14 and Brazil in 17, compared with 55 years in the UK, 42 in France and 40 in Sweden.

預計中國將在11年時間裏完成同樣的轉變，泰國是14年，巴西是17年，相比之下，英國是55年，法國是42年，而瑞典是40年。

While rising longevity is clearly far better than the alternative, the advent of what BofA refers to as “peak youth” (globally, the number of people aged 65-plus is expected to outnumber the under-fives for the first time in human history by 2020) clearly throws up a series of challenges, particularly in the emerging world where resources are scarcer.

儘管壽命延長顯然比縮短好得多，但美銀美林所稱的“年輕人峯值”(peak youth )的來臨顯然帶來了一系列挑戰，尤其是在資源較爲匱乏的新興世界。“年輕人峯值”是指到2020年，全球65歲以上人口數量預計將在人類歷史上首次超過5歲以下人口的數量。

“Preparing for this demographic tidal wave is a pressing imperative for governments, businesses and individuals alike as people outlive assets,” BofA says.

美銀美林表示：“對政府、企業和個人來說，準備應對這種人口結構浪潮迫在眉睫，很多人的資產將不足以讓他們安享天年。”

The bank warns that age-related spending already constitutes 40 per cent of public expenditure in the developed world, and “rising age-related costs are likely to push 60 per cent of sovereigns into speculative grade”. Globally, two-thirds of employees are not saving for retirement.

它警告稱，在發達世界，與年齡有關的支出已經佔到公共支出的40%，而且“年齡相關成本日益增長可能推動60%的主權債務降至投機級別”。就全球而言，三分之二的僱員沒有爲退休儲蓄。

Projections from the OECD, the club of mostly rich countries, suggest the changing demographics will hit the finances of EM governments hard.

成員大多是富裕國家的經合組織(OECD)的預測顯示，日益改變的人口結構將重創新興市場政府的財政。

It forecasts that by 2050, the cost of funding public pensions will edge up to 6.1 per cent of gross domestic product in the US and 8.1 per cent in the UK, while actually falling to 12.8 per cent of GDP in France.

該組織預計，到2050年，美國公共養老金融資成本與國內生產總值(GDP)之比將略升至6.1%，英國是8.1%，而法國實際上還將下降至12.8%。

In contrast, the OECD sees spending on public pensions surging from 6.3 per cent of GDP to 17 per cent in Turkey, from 9.1 per cent to 16.8 per cent in Brazil and from 3.4 per cent to 9.2 per cent in China, as the final chart shows.

相比之下，如最後一張圖表顯示，經合組織發現，土耳其公共養老金支出與GDP之比將從6.3%升至17%，巴西從9.1%升至16.8%，中國從3.4%升至9.2%。

Ageing populations are also likely to force many EM governments to spend more on healthcare, BofA argues. At present, emerging economies spend only 5.6 per cent of GDP on healthcare, compared with 12.5 per cent in developed countries, according to the World Economic Forum.

美銀美林提出，人口老齡化還很可能迫使許多新興市場政府加大醫療支出。世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)的數據顯示，目前新興經濟體在醫療方面的支出只佔到GDP的5.6%，而發達國家的這一比例爲12.5%。

Yet, by 2030, China and India will have at least 380m diabetics, seven times the number in the US, the World Health Organisation forecasts.

然而，世界衛生組織(World Health Organisation)預測，到2030年，中國和印度的糖尿病患者將至少達到3.8億，是美國的7倍。

As a result of such trends, the WEF forecasts that health spending in the emerging world will rise at an annual rate of 10.7 per cent up until 2022, far faster than the 3.7 per cent growth envisaged in developed countries.

世界經濟論壇預計，此類趨勢造成的結果是，新興世界的醫療支出在2022年前將以每年10.7%的速度增長，遠遠超過發達國家3.7%的預計增速。