中國經濟放緩 新興市場的中國心病

Consumer sentiment across the key emerging markets of China, Southeast Asia and Latin America has been unable to withstand the impact of the Chinese economic slowdown, writes David Wilder of FT Confidential Research.

中國經濟放緩已嚴重衝擊到中國、東南亞及拉丁美洲等主要新興市場的消費者信心。

In China itself, hopes that consumer activity would hold up as old economic drivers slowed down have faded: there is evidence that growing uncertainty about the country’s financial future is crimping household spending. A stock market crash, a depreciating currency and a sharp economic slowdown have driven Chinese consumer sentiment to record lows in the past few months.

就中國自身而言，對消費活動在原有經濟驅動力疲軟之際保持穩定的希望已經破滅：有跡象顯示，中國金融前景不確定性的增加，正導致家庭支出收緊。A股波動、人民幣貶值、經濟大幅放緩已在過去數月令中國的消費者信心創下歷史新低。

The fortunes of the emerging markets — and the global economy as a whole — are inextricably linked to Chinese demand and, as China has slowed, so consumer sentiment in many countries in these regions has suffered.

新興市場的命運——及整個全球經濟——與中國的需求密不可分地連在一起。因而，中國經濟放緩令這些地區一衆國家消費者信心普遍受挫。

China’s slowdown has hurt Latin America, where economic confidence among consumers has, with a few notable exceptions, fallen sharply. Polls of consumers show confidence among Brazilians, Chileans and Peruvians in their economies — always low — has continued to fall away, reflecting their gearing to the large-scale export of commodities to China. In Mexico and Colombia, however, which are more tied to US economic fortunes, sentiment has held up, while the anticipated election of free-marketeer Mauricio Macri to the Argentine presidency saw confidence in Latin America’s third-biggest economy actually rise last year.

中國經濟放緩已影響拉美，除少數引人注目的例外，拉美各國的消費者對經濟的信心均急劇下挫。消費者調查顯示，巴西、智利和祕魯的消費者對本國經濟的信心一直很低，而且還在持續走低，這反映出這些國家的經濟依賴於向中國大量出口大宗商品。相較而言，墨西哥和哥倫比亞因與美國經濟關聯更甚，消費者信心得以保持，而去年由於預計到自由市場主義者毛裏西奧•馬克裏(Mauricio Macri)將在阿根廷總統大選中獲勝，消費者對這個拉美第三大經濟體的信心去年實際上上升了。

Sentiment surveys show consumers in Southeast Asia remain generally upbeat but the China effect means they are also less confident in their economies. China’s slowdown, coupled with the associated fall in commodities prices, has taken its toll on Malaysia in particular, though sentiment among Malaysian and Thai consumers is also weighed down by political uncertainty in those countries. However, Indonesians and Filipinos began feeling more optimistic thanks to increased government spending to counter the slowdown.

信心調查顯示，東南亞各國的消費者情緒大致樂觀，但中國的影響導致他們對經濟的信心也已降低。中國經濟放緩，加上大宗商品價格隨之下跌，令馬來西亞受損尤甚，雖然政局動盪也打擊了馬來西亞和泰國消費者的信心。然而，由於印度尼西亞與菲律賓採取了以增加政府支出對抗經濟放緩的政策，兩國民衆的情緒則轉爲更加樂觀。