日俄峯會幕後 日擔心俄更加倒向中國

Japanese and Russian officials have been working for almost three years to organise a meaningful meeting between their leaders. But with the stakes high for both as Vladimir Putin prepares to host Shinzo Abe in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday, Moscow is already lowering expectations of progress on the issue that matters to Tokyo the most.

近三年來，日本和俄羅斯官員一直在爲組織一次意義重大的兩國領導人峯會而努力。但由於對雙方而言事關重大，所以當弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)準備週五在黑海度假勝地索契(Sochi)會見安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)之際，莫斯科方面已開始降低在對東京方面最重要的問題上取得進展的預期。

At the top of the agenda is a long-running dispute over the group of islands Russia calls the Kuriles and Japan the Northern Territories. But “it is hardly possible to expect imminent and serious progress” on resolving it, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, warned.

會談議程中的最重要議題是兩國長期以來對一系列島嶼的爭端——俄羅斯稱之爲庫頁島(Kuriles)，日本稱之爲北方領土(Northern Territories)。但是，“期望在解決該問題上很快取得重大進展幾乎是不可能的，”普京發言人德米特里•巴斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)警告稱。

Dmitry Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center， sees Japan as a casualty of Russia’s pivot to China, which he says has put Russia on a trajectory to ever-greater dependency on Beijing while failing to give other Asian powers enough attention.

卡內基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)主任德米特里•特列寧(Dmitri Trenin)認爲，日本是俄羅斯倒向中國政策的受害者。他表示，這一政策得俄羅斯走上了一條對北京方面日益依賴的道路，對亞洲其他大國未能給予足夠重視。

The Japanese prime minister is all too aware of that. Mr Abe is currently on a whistle-stop tour of Europe, visiting Italy, France, Germany and the UK, before he chairs the G7 meeting in Ise-Shima at the end of the month.

日本首相對此非常清醒。安倍晉三目前正在進行走馬觀花式的歐洲之行，訪問意大利、法國、德國和英國。然後，他將於本月底在伊勢志摩(Ise-Shima)主持七國集團(G7)會議。

But his meeting with Mr Putin is diplomatically more important. Mr Abe’s eagerness to meet Mr Putin is founded in the geopolitical threat to Japan from China, say people close to the prime minister. His fear is that an isolated Russia will draw ever closer to Beijing. Given other territorial disputes, such as China’s claim to what Japan calls the Senkaku islands and China the Diaoyu, Japan can ill-afford to have its two giant neighbours unite against it.

但是，他與普京會面在外交方面具有更重要的意義。據接近這位首相的人士表示，安倍晉三急於跟普京會面，原因在於中國在地緣政治方面對日本構成的壓力。他擔心，被孤立的俄羅斯將向中國靠得更近。鑑於其他領土爭端，比如中國對於日本稱之爲尖閣諸島(Senkaku Islands)、中國稱之爲“釣魚島及其附屬島嶼(Diaoyu)”的系列島嶼的主權要求，日本無法承受兩大鄰國共同反對自己的後果。

Mr Abe has been eager for a proper Japan-Russia summit rather than brief chats on the sidelines of international meetings, says one official close to him. Braving the displeasure of the US amid tensions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Mr Abe wants the Russian leader to visit Tokyo within the year.

一名接近安倍晉三的官員說，他一直非常希望召開一次適當的日俄峯會，而不是兩國領導人在國際會議的間隙進行簡短交談。安倍晉三大膽面對美國對俄羅斯吞併克里米亞(Crimea)的不滿，希望普京能在今年年底訪問東京。

The issue that looms over Russo-Japanese relations is four disputed islands in the Kurile chain, seized by the Soviet Union in the final days of the second world war. The dispute means the two countries never signed a peace treaty.

二戰最後時期被蘇聯佔領的庫頁羣島中的四個爭議島嶼，是影響俄日關係的問題所在。該爭議導致兩國之間從未簽署一項和平條約。

Many Russian officials and analysts say that seeking a counterbalance to Moscow’s ever-closer alliance with China would be beneficial for Russia as well. “A country that refused to be a junior partner of the US can’t find it in its interest to become a tributary of a Chinese great power,” says Mr Trenin. “Japan and other countries with whom relations are stalling are unused reserves of Russian foreign policy.”

許多俄羅斯官員和分析人士表示，在俄羅斯與中國之間的聯盟關係日益緊密之際，尋找一種平衡，對俄羅斯本身也將是有益的。“一個拒絕成爲美國小夥伴的國家會發現，成爲強大中國的附屬國是不符合自身利益的，”特列寧說。“俄羅斯與日本和其他國家的關係停滯不前，而這些國家正是俄羅斯在外交政策方面未曾使用的儲備。”

But there are few economic or political opportunities to develop this reserve with Tokyo. Russian officials say Japan is a partner of choice for the transfer of high technology to Russia, and Moscow also looks to its eastern neighbour as a potential market for Russian agricultural and fisheries products.

但是，俄羅斯並沒有多少經濟或政治機會和日本一同開發這些儲備。俄羅斯官員說，日本是對俄轉讓高技術的首選夥伴；俄羅斯也把這個東方鄰國看成本國農業、漁業產品的一個潛在市場。

But in an era of low prices for the natural resources that form the lion’s share of Russia’s exports, such broader exchanges are slow to get off the ground.

但在構成俄羅斯出口主體的自然資源價格低迷的時代，這些經貿交流進展得很緩慢。