投資者押注美歐貨幣政策分化
The dollar hit an eight-month peak against other leading currencies yesterday, intensifying pressure on emerging markets as investors raised their bets on a “great divergence” in international monetary policy this month.
美元對其他主要貨幣的匯率昨日升至8個月高點，加大了新興市場面臨的壓力。投資者加大了對本月國際貨幣政策發生“大分化”的押注。
Investors are preparing for a pivotal few weeks where the cross-Atlantic policy gulf between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is expected to widen drastically, stirring up monetary cross-currents that will set the tone for 2016.
投資者開始爲關鍵的幾周做準備。在這幾周裏，大西洋兩岸歐洲央行(ECB)和美聯儲(Fed)之間的政策分化預計將大幅加劇，激起爲2016年定調的交叉潮流。
The ECB is on Thursday expected to act on the promise by Mario Draghi, the bank’s president, to “do what we must” to stimulate growth and drive inflation higher, potentially ramping up its quantitative easing programme.
週四，歐洲央行預計將兌現行長馬里奧德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的承諾，“採取我們必須採取的一切措施”刺激增長並推高通脹水平，加大量化寬鬆力度。
However, investors also predict the Fed will begin tightening policy later in December for the first time since 2006. The looming divergence has encouraged investors to sell the euro against the dollar and buy eurozone equities.
然而，投資者也預計，美聯儲將在12月晚些時候啓動自2006年以來的第一次政策收緊。正在逼近的貨幣政策分化促使投資者賣出歐元、買入美元，併購買歐元區股票。
The dollar index, measuring the currency against its peers, reached its highest level since hitting a 12-year peak in March and was on course for its best month since the start of the year. In turn, the euro has slipped to a seven-month low against the dollar.
衡量美元對其他主要貨幣匯率變化的美元指數，創下了自今年3月創下12年高點以來的最高水平，11月註定成爲自今年初以來美元最強勢的月份。歐元兌美元匯率跌至7個月低點。
Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman said this week was “among the most important” of the year. “Rarely is there such a confluence of events in a short period that will have far-reaching implications for investors that are known ahead of time and have been discussed so extensively.’’
布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman, BBH)的馬克錢德勒(Marc Chandler)表示，本週是全年“最重要的一星期之一”。“在很短時間內發生這麼多將對投資者具有深遠影響的事件，而這些事件大家提前就已知曉並進行過如此廣泛的討論，這種情況並不多見。”
Highlighting what analysts have dubbed the “great divergence”, the German two-year Bund yield is trading at a negative 0.41 per cent, while the US two-year Treasury yield yesterday climbed to a new five-year high of 0.95 per cent. The difference between the two is now the highest in almost a decade.
凸顯分析師們所稱的“大分化”的跡象是，昨日兩年期德國國債的收益率爲-0.41%，而兩年期美國國債的收益率攀升至0.95%的五年新高。目前，兩者收益率之差爲近10年內的最大水平。
The dollar’s strength could prove painful to the developing world, where many companies and some countries have borrowed heavily in the US currency. Many analysts expect their mounting debt burden to prove a big challenge for emerging markets. The FTSE EM index fell another 3.6 per cent in November and EM currencies fell for the sixth month in the past seven.
美元走高可能給發展中世界帶來痛苦。那裏的許多公司和一些國家借入了高額美元債務。許多分析師預計，不斷升高的債務負擔將對新興市場構成嚴峻挑戰。11月，富時新興市場指數(FTSE EM index)進一步下跌3.6%，而新興市場貨幣在過去7個月裏的第6個月下跌。
