美聯儲(Federal Reserve)寬鬆貨幣政策結束 誰將裸泳

For six years, emerging markets have lived in a world defined by the US Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Tides of liquidity have flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge credit-fuelled retail dreams.

六年來，新興市場一直處在美聯儲(Federal Reserve)寬鬆貨幣政策所營造的世界裏。一股又一股流動性洪流從發達經濟體涌向發展中經濟體，爲基礎設施和企業投資提供資金，還讓消費者陶醉於信貸助燃的消費夢想。

Thus, the Fed’s announcement yesterday that it would draw quantitative easing to an end represents both a watershed and a leap into the unknown.

因此，美聯儲昨日宣佈量化寬鬆(QE)政策結束，既是一個分水嶺，也代表着縱身跳入一個未知世界。

The end of asset purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, beset by a confluence of adverse and interconnected trends. China’s economy is slowing, as is the eurozone led by subpar German demand.

美聯儲終止資產購買計劃之際，適逢新興市場進入一個充滿挑戰的時期，受到各種相互關聯的不利趨勢的困擾。中國經濟正在放緩，受德國需求不足拖累的歐元區也是如此。

Commodity prices are in a prolonged slump. Meanwhile, asset prices and debt levels in many developing countries remain at elevated levels following six years of liquidity inflows.

大宗商品——包括石油、基礎金屬和一些糧食——價格已陷入持續低迷。與此同時，經過六年的流動性流入後，許多發展中國家的資產價格和債務水平仍處於較高水平。

“Even without the commodity downturn, monetary tightening by the US is a dangerous time for emerging markets,” said Michael Power, strategist at Investec, an investment fund.

“即使沒有大宗商品的低迷，美國收緊貨幣政策對新興市場而言也是一個危險的時刻，”投資基金Investec的分析師邁克爾•鮑爾(Michael Power)表示。“令人想起巴菲特的妙語——只有退潮的時候，才能知道誰在裸泳。”

The broad-based decline in commodity prices, a drag on growth for commodity exporters such as Brazil, Russia and Chile, has been driven in part by markets expecting the end of QE.

大宗商品的價格普遍下降，在一定程度上是因爲市場預期量化寬鬆政策將要告終。價格下降拖累了大宗商品出口國，如巴西、俄羅斯和智利的經濟增長。

The unwinding of the US monetary stimulus has underpinned an appreciation by the US dollar, in which most commodities are priced. A rising greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, creating pressure for sellers to lower prices.

美國解除貨幣刺激的做法推高了美元匯率，而多數大宗商品是以美元計價的。美元升值使得以美元計價的大宗商品對買家更加昂貴，進而給賣家帶來降價的壓力。

Nomura predicts that a basket of 19 food, energy and metal commodity prices may fall 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, after declining by 12 per cent between June and the end of October. Particularly striking has been the slump in the price of oil, with Brent crude down 17 per cent to $86 a barrel.

野村證券(Nomura)預計，今年第四季度一籃子19種糧食、能源和金屬大宗商品價格可能下降10%，而此前從6月至10月底已經下降了12%。特別引人注目的是油價低迷，布倫特(Brent)原油自8月底以來下跌了17%，至每桶86美元。

Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, points to changes flowing from the sliding prices of commodities. But, overall, the effect over time is likely to be damaging, potentially triggering political instability.

野村證券首席亞洲經濟學家蘇博文(Rob Subbaraman)指出了大宗商品價格下滑帶來的一些變化。但總體而言，隨着時間的推移，影響很可能是不利的，潛在可能引發政治不穩定。

“Over the last 10-year commodity boom, many emerging market countries saw strong economic growth leading to the formation of what many now call the ‘new middle class’,” he said.

“在過去10年的大宗商品繁榮期間，很多新興市場國家出現強勁經濟增長，催生了很多人所稱的‘新中產階級’，”他說。

“A sustained drop in commodity prices could . . . mean a permanent fall in potential growth if no reforms are undertaken. This could cause political instability that could feedback negatively on economic policy.”

“如果不推行改革，大宗商品價格持續下降可能……意味着潛在增長率的永久下降。這可能引起政治不穩定，進而可能對經濟政策產生不利影響。”

Falling commodity prices are already leading to lower forecasts for emerging market growth. The International Institute of Finance, an association of global institutions, sees national income in emerging Europe contracting 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a 0.1 per cent fall in the third quarter, driven mostly by a slump in Russia. In the emerging economies of the Asia-Pacific, the IIF sees growth slowing to 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from 7 per cent in the third. Only in Latin America does it see a rise, to 2 per cent from 1.2 per cent in the third quarter.

大宗商品價格不斷下跌，已經導致各方下調新興市場的經濟增長預測。國際金融協會（Institute of International Finance，簡稱IIF）預測，歐洲新興經濟體的國民收入在第三季度萎縮0.1%之後，在第四季度將進一步萎縮2.9%，主要拖累因素是俄羅斯經濟陷入低迷。對於亞太地區的新興經濟體，國際金融協會預測第四季度的增長將放緩至6.8%，低於第三季度7%的增幅。根據國際金融協會的預測，只有拉丁美洲的增長會加速，從第三季度的增長1.2%加快至第四季度的增長2%。

In the minds of many analysts, the future depends on what the Fed does next. If it moves swiftly to a more hawkish monetary policy, leading ultimately to a rise in US interest rates, the result for emerging markets could be stark.

在很多分析師的眼裏，未來取決於美聯儲如何走下一步。如果它快速轉向更爲鷹派的貨幣政策，最終上調美元利率，其結果對新興市場可能是嚴峻的。

“If the Fed raises rates, it could be pretty negative for emerging markets,” said Mr Subbaraman. “A high interest rate environment is something that we have not seen for a long time.”

“如果美聯儲提高利率，那對新興市場可能是相當不利的，”野村證券的蘇博文說。“大家已經有很久沒有經歷高利率環境了。”

Particularly vulnerable, said Craig Botham, economist at Schroders, would be debt markets that have become engorged with QE-inflated cash and which have done much to finance government deficits, infrastructure projects and company expansion plans.

施羅德(Schroders)經濟學家克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)表示，近年充斥由QE帶來的資金，並且爲資助政府赤字、基礎設施項目和企業擴張計劃出了大力的債務市場尤其脆弱。

Foreign ownership in local emerging market bonds has risen from 8 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2012, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Over the same period, the total size of domestic securities markets in emerging markets increased by a third to over $16tn.

根據國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據，外資所持的新興市場本地債券比例已從2007年的8%升至2012年的17%。同期，新興市場國內證券市場的總規模增加三分之一，至16萬億美元以上。

Nevertheless, even with all the negative signals, there are silver linings. Falling commodity prices are leading to ebbing inflationary pressures in much of the emerging world, giving central banks latitude to keep monetary policy loose . And while the Fed has drawn its asset purchases to an end, the Bank of Japan is still busy buying government bonds. The European Central Bank may follow suit if growth in the eurozone continues to disappoint. The era of abundant liquidity is by no means over.

不過，即便有種種負面信號，令人抱有希望的跡象也是有的。不斷下跌的大宗商品價格導致許多新興國家通脹壓力消退，使央行擁有保持寬鬆貨幣政策的迴旋餘地。同時，儘管美聯儲已經終止資產購買計劃，但日本央行(Bank of Japan)仍忙於購買政府債券。如果歐元區經濟增長繼續令人失望，歐洲央行(ECB)也可能效仿。流動性充裕的時代遠遠沒有結束。