貨幣政策難醫全球債務沉痾

There are some problems that not even $10 trillion can solve.

有一些問題是10萬億美元（約合62萬億元人民幣）也解決不了的。

That gargantuan sum of money is what central banks around the world have spent in recent years as they have tried to stimulate their economies and fight financial crises. The tidal wave of cheap money has played a huge role in generating growth in many countries, cutting unemployment and preventing panic.

世界各國的央行近些年來花了這麼大一筆錢，努力刺激經濟，對抗金融危機。這股寬鬆貨幣政策的浪潮，在促進很多國家的經濟增長、降低失業率及防止恐慌等方面發揮了巨大作用。

But it has not been able to do away with days like Monday, when fear again coursed through global financial markets. The main triggers for the steep declines in stock and bond markets were announcements out of Greece and Puerto Rico. In China, meanwhile, the precipitous declines in its stock market were also a sobering reminder that stubborn problems lurk in the global economy.

然而，它無法消除週一這樣的日子。當天，全球金融市場再次彌散着擔憂情緒。引發各大股票與證券市場大幅下挫的主要原因是希臘和波多黎各公佈的信息。與此同時，中國股市的暴跌也讓人們清醒地認識到，全球經濟仍然存在一些根深蒂固的問題。

Stifling debt loads, for instance, continue to weigh on countries around the world. Greece’s government has repeatedly called for relief from some of its debt obligations, and Puerto Rico’s governor said on Sunday that its debt was “not payable.” Both borrowers are extreme cases, but high borrowing, either by corporations or governments, is also bogging down the globally significant economies of Brazil, Turkey, Italy and China. And economists say that central banks and their whirring printing presses can do only so much to alleviate the burden.

例如，沉重的債務負擔繼續困擾着全球多個國家。希臘政府多次要求外界免除部分債務，波多黎各總督則在週日表示，他們“無力償還”債務。這是兩個極端的例子，但無論是企業還是政府，高額借貸還讓一些具備國際影響力的經濟體——巴西、土耳其、意大利及中國——陷入困境。經濟學家表示，央行和它們那些不停轉動的印鈔機能爲減輕負擔做的事情是有限度的。

“Monetary policy can only be a palliative,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Lombard Street Research. “It cannot be a cure.”

“貨幣政策只能起到緩解作用，”朗伯德街研究公司(Lombard Street Research)首席經濟師黛安娜·喬伊列娃(Diana Choyleva)說。“不是根治的方法。”

On Monday, the closing of banks in Greece ignited worries of a messy exit from the euro, and stock markets around the world fell sharply. Adding to the turmoil were expectations that the Greek government would not make a debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund that is due on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 350 points, or 1.95 percent, while the benchmark index for investors, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index tumbled 2.09 percent, erasing its gain for the year. It was also the first decline of more than 2 percent since October last year.

週一，希臘關閉銀行一事，讓人們擔心該國會退出歐元區，並引發混亂，全球股市大幅下跌。火上澆油的是，外界認爲希臘政府可能不會向國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)償還一筆週二到期的債務。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌350點，跌幅1.95%，與此同時，被投資者當做基準指數的標準普爾500指數下跌2.09%，抵消了今年的增長。這也是該指數自去年10月以來，跌幅首次超過2%。

Wall Street’s avidly watched fear gauge, known as the Vix, spiked to its highest level in months, suggesting more turbulence ahead.

華爾街熱切地看着恐慌指數，即Vix指數在幾個月時間裏衝上最高點。這表明未來還有更多波動。

The market turbulence was greater in Europe. The stock markets of Italy and Portugal fell over 5 percent, while Spain’s was down 4.6 percent. Ominously, each country’s government bonds also sold off, pushing up their yields, which move in the opposite direction to their prices.

歐洲的市場波動更劇烈。意大利和葡萄牙的股市下跌逾5%，而西班牙股市則下跌4.6%。不幸的是，各國的政府債券也都已售罄，擡升了反向聯動的收益率。

In China, stocks fell again on Monday, leaving them down more than 20 percent from their recent peak, in bear market territory.

週一當天，中國股市再次下探，同前不久達到的高點相比跌幅超20%，步入熊市。

Investors sought the comparative safety of United States government bonds. Treasury prices rallied, pushing the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, on the benchmark 10-year note down to 2.33 percent, its sharpest decline since October.

投資者紛紛尋求美國政府債券的相對安全性。美國國債價格上揚，將反向聯動的標準10年期國債收益率拉低至2.33%，屬去年10月以來的最大跌幅。

The return of nervous selling on stock markets raises important questions about the health of the global economy. As central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have printed trillions of dollars and euros, markets in stock and bonds, as well as other types of assets, have responded optimistically, sometimes reaching highs that were unthinkable seven years ago in the depths of the financial crisis.

股市再現緊張拋售引發了對全球經濟健康的重要質疑。因爲美聯儲(Federal Reserve)和歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)等央行已印製了數萬億美元和歐元，股票、債券及其他類型的資產市場，均作出了積極的迴應，有時達到七年前金融危機最爲嚴重的時候難以想象的高位。

Still, when everything is going well, it is easy to forget that there are limits to the power of the central banks, analysts say.

但分析人士稱，當一切都順風順水的時候，人們容易忘記央行的力量也是有限的。

“Basically, they haven’t got as much bang for the buck, or bang per euro, or bang per yen, as they were expecting,” said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research.

“基本上，他們未能從發行的美元、歐元或日元中得到期待的回報，”亞德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research)的埃德·亞德尼(Ed Yardeni)說。

Central banks can make debt less expensive by pushing down interest rates. Crucially, though, they cannot slash debt levels to bring much quicker relief to borrowers. In fact, lower interest rates can persuade some borrowers to take on more debt.

央行可以通過調低利率來降低債務的成本。但關鍵是，它們無法通過降低債務水平，來更快地緩解借貸方的負擔。實際上，利率降低可能還會說服一些借貸人借更多債。

“Rather than just reflecting the current weakness, low rates may in part have contributed to it by fueling costly financial booms and busts,” the Bank for International Settlements, an organization whose members are the world’s central banks, wrote in a recent analysis of the global economy.

“低利率不僅僅反映出了當前的疲軟，可能還在一定程度上造成了這種疲軟，因爲它加劇了代價不菲的金融繁榮和蕭條，”由全球央行組成的組織國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)前不久在分析全球經濟時寫道。

Many countries are now in a position where their governments and companies live in fear of an increase in interest rates. A further rise in the government bond yields of Spain and Italy could cause a contraction in the fiscal policy of those countries, noted Alberto Gallo, head of macro credit research at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

眼下，很多國家的政府和企業都生活在對利率上調的恐懼之中。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的宏觀信貸研究負責人阿爾貝託·加洛(Alberto Gallo)表示，西班牙和意大利政府債券收益率的進一步上漲，可能會導致兩國的財政政策轉向緊縮。

“This ‘involuntary tightening’ is what the E.C.B. does not want,” he wrote in an email, referring to the European Central Bank.

“這種‘不由自主的收緊’不是ECB想看到的，”他在一封電子郵件中寫道。ECB指的是歐洲央行。

Even faster-growing economies are also vulnerable. Debt in China has soared since the financial crisis of 2008, in part the result of government stimulus efforts. Yet the Chinese economy is growing much more slowly than it was, say, 10 years ago. This has prompted the Chinese government to pursue policies that expose more of the economy to market forces.

即便是增長較快的經濟體也頗爲脆弱。自2008年的金融危機以來，中國的債務規模飆升。這在一定程度上是政府的刺激計劃造成的。但中國經濟目前的增長速度，遠低於10年前。這促使中國政府實行相關政策，讓更多的經濟領域接受市場力量的影響。

“They have realized that they cannot continue like this – and that monetary policy doesn’t solve all problems,” Ms. Choyleva said.

“他們已經意識到，不能再這樣下去了，貨幣政策不能包治百病，”喬伊列娃說。

Countries with high-seeming debt totals are not necessarily fragile. The United States government borrowed heavily after the financial crisis. But as the economy recovered, the debt proved to be manageable — and some economists contend that it helped stoke the economic comeback. Japan’s gross debt is equivalent to 234 percent of its gross domestic product. Yet it has had no problems finding buyers for its government bonds over the years, defying gloomy predictions of some Western investors.

債務總額看上去頗高的國家不一定脆弱。金融危機後，美國政府大量舉債。但隨着經濟復甦，那些債務證明是可控的。一些經濟學家稱，債務幫助刺激了經濟復甦。日本的總負債相當於國內生產總值的2.34倍。但多年來，該國一直不愁爲政府債券尋找買家，讓一些西方投資者的悲觀預測落了空。

And some analysts contend that Europe’s debt problems are particularly acute because of the euro. Unlike Japan and the United States, countries in the common currency cannot unilaterally loosen monetary policy and let their currencies fall to try and generate the growth that would then make it easier to pay off debts.

一些分析人士稱，歐洲的債務問題特別嚴重是因爲歐元。與日本和美國不同，使用統一貨幣的歐元區國家無法單方面放鬆貨幣政策，讓貨幣貶值，以努力促進增長，進而降低償還債務的難度。

“Greece needs far easier money than the rest of Europe and it can’t get it because it is locked in with the rest of Europe,” said Joseph E. Gagnon, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“希臘需要遠比歐洲其他地方寬鬆的貨幣政策，但卻不能如願，因爲它是和歐洲其他地方綁在一起的，”彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級研究員約瑟夫·E·加尼翁(Joseph E. Gagnon)說。

Forgiving debts is another way to lighten the deadweight on economies. Writing off debt can hurt banks, but defaults can also clear the system of doubtful loans and accelerate a recovery. Some analysts contend that extinguishing the mortgage debt of households bolstered the United States recovery. But lenders are not always willing to give big breaks to borrowers. Greece’s creditors have so far denied the country’s most recent requests for debt relief.

減免債務是給經濟減壓的另一個途徑。免除債務會傷害到銀行，但違約也會清除系統中的可疑貸款，加速復甦。一些分析人士稱，免除家庭住房抵押貸款給美國的復甦提供了支持。但放款人不見得願意放借款人一馬。截至目前，希臘最近的幾次減免請求均被其債權人拒絕。

And, in one of the most stressed countries in Europe, a grim standoff over debt is taking place. Ukraine is moving closer to default after creditors continued lending to the country despite zero growth and a corrupt and opaque political and economic system. Now, some of those creditors, including Franklin Templeton, an American investment firm, have resisted Ukraine’s insistence they take a loss on their principal investment, insisting instead on extending the repayment period.

此外，在歐洲最焦慮不安的國家之一烏克蘭，圍繞債務問題的嚴峻僵持正在上演。烏克蘭正在接近違約的邊緣。在此之前，儘管該國零增，且政治和經濟制度腐敗、不透明，但債權人仍繼續貸款給該國。現在，烏克蘭堅持要債權人承擔自己的本金虧損，但包括美國投資公司富蘭克林鄧普頓(Franklin Templeton)在內的部分債權人拒絕了，轉而提出延長回報期。

But last week, Ukraine’s finance minister, Natalie Jaresko, said last week a default is “theoretically possible.”

不過上週，烏克蘭財長娜塔莉·傑里斯科(Natalie Jaresko)表示，違約“理論上是有可能的”。