中國資金外流令貨幣政策更難見效

Capital is flowing out of China at a record pace, sparking fears about financial stability and complicating efforts by the central bank to support a slowing economy with lower interest rates.

中國正出現規模創紀錄的資金外流現象，引發了人們對中國金融穩定性的擔心，也令中國央行(PBoC)以降息提振放緩經濟的努力面臨更復雜的局面。

China ran a balance of payments deficit of $80bn in the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly net outflow on record, according to official data.

根據中國官方發佈的數據，今年頭三個月，中國國際收支逆差達800億美元，是有記錄以來最大規模的季度淨流出量。

The outflows are all the more striking because China’s trade surplus remained strong over the period. As falling commodity prices slashed the country’s import bill, it recorded a $79bn current-account surplus — the largest in nearly five years.

考慮到中國在同一時期內的貿易順差還很高，這一資金外流的規模就愈發令人吃驚了。在不斷下跌的大宗商品價格令中國進口額大大縮水之際，中國錄得790億美元的經常項目順差，是近五年來的最大順差。

But this was overwhelmed by outflows on the capital and financial accounts worth a record $159bn. The lure of China's surging stock market also failed to counter the outflow trend.

然而，這一數字卻被資本和金融項目的外流資金超過，後者價值達到創紀錄的1590億美元。而中國股市暴漲帶來的誘惑，也未能逆轉資金外流的趨勢。

Although the outflows signal investor concern about China's economy, which grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, a rising US dollar and declining Chinese interest rates also helped draw funds out of the country.

外流資金或反映了投資者對中國經濟的擔憂：今年第一季度，中國出現了六年來的最慢經濟增長速度。不過，不斷升值的美元及不斷降低的中國利率，也在推動資金流出中國。

"All things considered, [Beijing] would rather not have confidence-sensitive capital going out," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research for ING Financial Markets in Singapore.

荷蘭國際集團金融市場(ING Financial Markets)駐新加坡亞洲研究主管蒂姆•康頓(Tim Condon)表示：“考慮到所有因素，（中國政府）更希望資金不要外流，因爲資金外流可能打擊市場信心。”

By some measures, outflows have been continuing for more than a year. The central bank’s holdings of foreign assets have dropped for seven consecutive quarters — the longest run of declines on record.

以某些標準而言，中國資金外流的現象已持續了一年以上。中國央行持有的外匯資產已連續第7個季度減少——這是有記錄以來持續時間最長的一次。

Still, economists say the scale of outflows does not yet threaten the stability of the financial system. That first-quarter outflows set a record largely reflects the tight control Beijing has long maintained over cross-border capital flows.

不過，經濟學家表示，中國資金外流的規模仍未威脅到金融體系的穩定性。第一季度外流資金創下紀錄，在很大程度上表明，中國政府長期維持着對跨境資金流動的嚴格控制。

And even if the $80bn quarterly outflow were maintained for the entire year — an unlikely scenario — it would still represent only 3 per cent of 2014 gross domestic product and 9 per cent of foreign exchange reserves. That explains why Chinese officials do not appear overly concerned.

而且，就算800億美元的季度資金外流規模保持一整年（這種情況不太可能出現），也只相當於中國2014年國內生產總值(GDP)的3%、中國外匯儲備的9%。這一點足以解釋爲何中國官方似乎對這個問題並不過分擔憂。

“Recent capital outflows represent an adjustment that is within expectations. One can’t equate them with illegal and secret capital flight,” Guan Tao, head of the balance of payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said last month.

上個月，中國國家外匯管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)國際收支司司長管濤曾表示：“今年一季度外匯呈現外流趨勢，但是當前的資本流出是意料之中的有序調整，並非違法、違規的資本外逃。”

According to analysts, it is also important to distinguish between outflows of so-called “hot money” — purely financial investments — and foreign direct investment flows linked to real economic activity, which the government is actively encouraging.

分析師們表示，區分所謂“熱錢”外流和對外直接投資(FDI)也十分重要。前者是純粹的金融投資，後者則與實體經濟的活動有關，而實體經濟活動是中國政府積極鼓勵的。

“China has a huge manufacturing sector and it’s looking for places to do business cheaper. That’s cold money — there are goods and services associated with it,” said Mr Condon.

康頓表示：“中國擁有規模巨大的製造業部門，目前正在尋找能夠降低業務成本的地區。由此而出現的資金流動是‘冷錢’——它們是與商品和服務相聯繫的。”

Aided by the government’s “going out” policy encouraging overseas investment by Chinese companies, China ran an FDI deficit of $33m in 2014, the first full-year FDI deficit since 2004, according to the foreign exchange regulator.

中國政府正在推行鼓勵中國企業海外投資的“走出去”政策。根據中國國家外匯管理局的數據，在該政策的幫助下，2014年中國FDI赤字爲3300萬美元，這是FDI自2004年以來首次出現全年赤字。

Beyond FDI, economists say even some purely financial flows should be considered a healthy move by Chinese savers to diversify into foreign assets, rather than a sign of panic about China's slowing economy.

經濟學家還表示，除了FDI以外，甚至部分純粹的金融性流動也應被視爲健康的資金流動，它們是中國儲戶借外國資產實現資產多元化配置而產生的流動，不是害怕中國經濟放緩的表現。

They also reflect recent reforms to loosen capital controls and cautiously encourage financial outflows through initiatives such as the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which allows mainland Chinese to invest in foreign equities.

此外，資金外流的原因還包括中國近期的金融改革。一方面，中國放寬了對資本的管制。另一方面，中國正小心地通過“滬港通”等機制鼓勵金融流動。“滬港通”機制允許中國內地投資者投資外國股市。

Nevertheless, capital outflows are complicating efforts by the People’s Bank of China to support the economy through monetary easing. For the past decade, central bank purchases of foreign exchange inflows were the main source of base money creation in China's banking system. Now, with outflows threatening to shrink the money supply, the central bank is turning to new mechanisms to expand it.

不過，資金外流令中國央行通過貨幣寬鬆政策提振經濟的努力複雜化。過去十年，央行購入流入外匯，是中國銀行體系創造基礎貨幣的主要來源。如今，由於資金外流可能會導致貨幣供應量縮水，中國央行正轉向新的辦法擴大貨幣供應量。

The most important of these is cuts to banks’ required reserve ratio. The PBoC once used RRR rises to restrain excess money growth by forcing commercial banks to keep a chunk of newly created base money on reserve at the central bank, where it is unavailable for lending. Now the PBoC is doing the opposite: cutting the RRR to offset the loss of liquidity caused by capital outflows.

這些新的辦法中，最重要的方式是降低銀行存款準備金率。中國央行曾通過提高存款準備金率，迫使商業銀行將部分新創造的基礎貨幣留在央行，作爲無法用於放貸的儲備金，從而實現限制貨幣過度增長的目的。如今，中國央行正在採取相反的操作方法：降低存款準備金率，以彌補資金外流導致的流動性喪失。

Yet even after RRR cuts totalling 1.5 percentage points this year, the ratio for big banks, at 18.5 per cent, remains far higher than in any other major economy. Most economists believe that for the PBoC to meet its broad M2 money growth target of 12 per cent, further RRR cuts will be necessary.

不過，雖然今年中國總計將存款準備金率降低了1.5個百分點，中國大型銀行的存款準備金率依然在18.5%，遠高於其他主要經濟體。多數經濟學家相信，中國央行要想實現12%的廣義貨幣增長目標，必須採取進一步降準措施。

“From the start of this year, capital inflows have been negative. We believe the key factor now restricting effective monetary easing is that the required reserve ratio remains at a high level,” said Liu Liu, macroeconomic analyst at China International Capital Corp.

中金公司(China International Capital Corp)宏觀經濟分析師劉鎏表示：“年初至今外匯流入爲負，我們認爲，當前制約貨幣政策有效放鬆的關鍵因素是存款準備金率仍處於高位，從而壓低了貨幣乘數。”

In addition to RRR cuts, the central bank has slashed benchmark rates three times since November. But lower rates could exacerbate capital flight by making Chinese assets less attractive, especially in comparison to the US, where the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this year.

除了降低存款準備金率，自去年11月以來，中國央行還三次大幅降低基準利率。不過，降息可能會降低中國資產的吸引力——尤其是相對美國資產的吸引力，從而加劇資金外逃。與中國形成對照的是，美國美聯儲(Fed)預計將於今年提升利率。