專家:中國保持人口穩定有難度

Even if one assumes that women in China today are willing to have two children, two out of every 10 mothers would have to have three offspring each just to keep the Population level by the middle of this century, according to an analysis of UN data.

對聯合國數據的一項分析顯示，即使人們假設現在的中國女性願意生兩個孩子，那麼爲了到本世紀中葉維持人口水平，20%的母親必須生育三個孩子。

China’s “missing girls” make it much harder for the country to keep its population stable, according to Carl Haub, demographer at the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau. In recent decades, China has produced 80 baby girls for every 100 baby boys.

華盛頓美國人口資料局(Population Reference Bureau)的人口統計學家卡爾?豪布(Carl Haub)指出，“女孩缺失”使中國維持人口穩定的難度大得多。最近幾十年，中國的男女出生比例爲100:80。

Population growth in China is a concern for policy makers because the working-age population peaked in 2012, so the country faces having fewer workers available to support a growing army of the elderly.

政策制定者擔憂中國人口增長狀況，因爲勞動年齡人口已在2012年見頂，因此整個國家面臨着越來越少的工齡人口支撐越來越多老齡人口的局面。

That peak has come at an earlier stage than in neighbouring economies, lending weight to the opinion of some observers that “China will become old before it gets rich”.

這一峯值來得比鄰國更早，進一步證實了一些觀察家所稱的“中國將未富先老”。

Demographers consider that to keep populations from falling, each woman, on average, must produce 2.06 babies, or an average of one daughter each.

人口統計學家認爲，爲了維持人口穩定，平均每個女性需要生育2.06個孩子，或者是平均每個女性要生育一個女孩。

While males slightly outnumber females at birth everywhere, they are more likely to die in infancy.

雖然世界各地男性出生比例都高於女性，但男嬰的死亡率也高於女嬰。

But women in China would need to produce 2.2 children each to keep population level.

但在中國，女性需要生育2.2個孩子才能維持人口水平。

That is because the gender imbalance is among the highest in the world, with 1.17 boys for every girl, a level that demographers have warned could lead to social unrest in years to come.

這是因爲中國是世界上性別失衡最嚴重的國家之一，男女出生比例達到1.17:1，人口統計學家警告，這可能在未來導致社會不安定。

Even China’s neighbours such as South Korea and Japan, which have fertility rates of 1.23 and 1.34 per woman, do not need as high a birth rate to hold the population level.

就連中國的鄰國韓國和日本（人口出生率分別爲每名女性1.23和1.34）也不需要如此之高的出生率來維持人口穩定。

Indeed, recent data from China’s census suggest it is having fewer children than suggested by UN statistics, which show a birth rate of 1.6 children per woman over the course of her child-bearing years. But China’s own census puts the rate as of 2010 at 1.08, almost the world’s lowest.

的確，中國近年的人口普查數據顯示，中國人口出生率要低於聯合國的統計數據，聯合國數據顯示中國育齡女性平均生育1.6個孩子，但中國自身的人口普查數據表明，截止2010年中國出生率爲1.08，幾乎爲世界最低值。

The calculation of the number of births needed to stop population from falling is derived from the UN Population Division’s “instant-replacement calculation”, which takes account not only of the rate of births but also maternal deaths.

避免人口下降所需要的出生率的計算，來源於聯合國人口司(UN Population Division)的“即時替換計算”，不僅包含出生率，也包含孕產婦死亡率。