人口專家紛紛預測 本世紀末中國人口將會減少到10億人!

What scholar Zheng Zhenzhen of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said at the 2016 World Economic Forum has stirred aheated discussion about the Chinese Population. According to Zheng, China's population will reduce to 1 billion by the end ofthis century, just like the volume it had reached by 1980.

中國社會科學院學者鄭真真在2016年世界經濟論壇上的發言引起了一場關於中國人口的激烈討論。她聲稱，本世紀末中國人口將減少到1980年的水平，也就是10億人。

However, some experts think a 1 billion population is still a number too optimistic, considering the overestimate of fertilityrates, they point out that the Chinese population may possibly reach 600 million by 2100.

然而，一些專家認爲10億人仍是一個太過樂觀的數字，他們指出，考慮到對生育率的過高估計，中國人口在2100年可能低至6億人左右。

A demography scholar Huang Wenzheng from the University of Wisconsin considers it is impossible that China could still have a 1 billion population by the end of the century. Even assuming with a total open birth policy, the birth rate can be 20 percent higher than the one during 2010 to 2015, and the average life expectancy also keeps increasing, Huang estimated the total population of China in 2100 would be 580 million, and decrease to 280 million by 2150.

此外，美國威斯康星大學人口統計學學者黃文政也表示，到本世紀末，中國人口很難維持到10億人的水平。即使大力鼓勵生育，假設生育率比2010年至2015年的實際生育率高出20%，再假設中國未來人均預期壽命隨社會發展水平上升而變化，他預測中國2100年的總人口爲5.8億，到2150年會降至2.8億。

Another Scholar Yi Fuxian predicts that with the universal two-child policy carried out in 2016, the birth rate still only would rise from 1.25 in 2015 to 1.4 in 2017. And based on the previous experience of South Korea and Taiwan, the birth rate would be down to 1.1 in 2035, and then up to 1.30 in 2056. Supposing that the birth rate can remain at 1.3 until 2100, the population of China would be only 560 million.

另一位學者易富賢則預測，儘管2016年全面兩孩政策放開，出生率仍然只會從2015年的1.25上升到2017年的1.4。基於韓國和臺灣的經驗，出生率在2035年會下降到1.1，到2056年再上升到1.3。假設到2100年出生率可以一直保持1.3不變，那時中國的人口將只有5.6億左右。

According to the 2015 World Population Prospects released by United Nations on July 2015, China's population will be 1.004 billion by the end of this century, which is based on its medium variant. Based on low variant, the prediction on population is 613 million.

根據聯合國2015年7月發佈《2015年世界人口展望》，預計中國人口到本世紀末將回落到10.04億。這是聯合國的中預測值，其低預測值是6.13億。

Scholars think it is unreasonable for the UN to assume such high a fertility rate of China based on the real situation. The report set the birth rates 1.55 from 2010 to 2015, 1.59 from 2015 to 2020, 1.66 from 2020 to 2030,1.74 from 2045 to 2050,and 1.81 from 2095 to 2100. While China's birth rates from 2010 to 2013 was 1.18, 1.04, 1.26, and 1.24.

學者們認爲，根據實際情況，聯合國爲中國假定如此高的生育率是不合理的。在聯合國預測方案裏，中國2010年至2015年的生育率被假設爲1.55、2015年至2020年爲1.59、2020年至2030年爲1.66、2045年至2050年爲1.74、2095年至2100年爲1.81，而中國2010年到2013年的生育率分別爲1.18，1.04，1.26，1.24。

Huang explains that now there are only 17 million new born babies every year. In the next 10 years, the number of Chinese women aged from 23 to 30 would be down by 40 percent. Even if there are 8 million babies being born every year, the birthrate could reach the replacement level, and every one can live to one hundred years of age, Huang estimates the population would still only be 800 million by 2100.

黃文政解釋稱，現在每年只有1700萬名新生兒。在未來10年內，23到30歲的育齡女性人數將下降40%，即使每年出生800萬名嬰兒，生育率達到更替水平，每個人都活到一百歲，他估計2100年中國人口也不過8億左右。