盤點全球面對的10大危機

The World Economic Forum on Thursday released its Global Risks 2014 report.

"Taking a 10-year outlook, the report assesses 31 risks that are global in nature and have the potential to cause significant negative impact across entire countries and industries if they take place," is how the WEF describes the report in a statement accompanying its release.

"The risks are grouped under five classifications — economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological — and measured in terms of their likelihood and potential impact," the statement says.

The report canvasses the views of 700 experts from around the world. Ten of what the WEF calls the "global risks of highest concern" for 2014 are as follows:

Fiscal crises in key economies

"Fiscal crises feature as the top risk in this year's Global Risks report. Advanced economies remain in danger, while many emerging markets have seen credit growth in recent years, which could fuel financial crises. A fiscal crisis in any major economy could easily have cascading global impacts."

Structurally high unemployment/underemployment

"Unemployment appears second overall, as many people in both advanced and emerging economies struggle to find jobs. Young people are especially vulnerable – youth unemployment is as high as 50% in some countries and underemployment (with low-quality jobs) remains prevalent, especially in emerging and developing markets."

Water crises

"Environmental risks feature prominently on this year's list. Water crises, for instance, rank as the third highest concern, illustrating a continued and growing awareness of the global water crisis as a result of mismanagement and increased competition for already scarce water resources."

Severe income disparity

"Closely associated in terms of societal risk, income disparity is also among the most worrying issues. Concerns have been raised about the squeezing effect the financial crisis had on the middle classes in developed economies, while globalization has brought about a polarization of incomes in emerging and developing economies."

Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation

"Even as governments and corporations are called upon to speed up greenhouse gas reduction, it is clear that the race is on not only to mitigate climate change but also to adapt. Failure to adapt has the biggest effect on the most vulnerable, especially those in least developed countries."

Greater incidence of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, fires)

"Climate change is the key driver of uncertain and changing weather patterns, causing an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. The Global Risks 2014 report draws attention to the combined implications of these environmental risks on key development and security issues, such as food security and political and social instability, ranked 8th and 10th respectively."

Global governance failure

"The risk of global governance failure, which lies at the heart of the risk map, was viewed by respondents as one of the risks that is most connected to others. Weak or inadequate global institutions, agreements or networks, combined with competing national and political interests, impede attempts to cooperate on addressing global risks."

Food crises

"One of the top societal risks in the report, food crises occur when access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition becomes inadequate or unreliable. Food crises are strongly linked to the risk of climate change and related factors."

Failure of a major financial mechanism/institution

"Over five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the failure of a major financial mechanism or institution also features among the risks that respondents are most concerned about, as uncertainty about the quality of many banks' assets remains."

Profound political and social instability

"At number 10 is the risk that one or more systemically critical countries will experience significant erosion of trust and mutual obligations between states and citizens. This could lead to state collapse, internal violence, regional or global instability and, potentially, military conflict."世界經濟論壇在週四發佈了《2014全球危機報告》。

“該報告預測了在10年內可能發生的31個危機，它們的發生將對全球的城市及工業產生嚴重的負面影響。”在發佈該報告時WEF（世界經濟論壇）解釋道。

報告說：“這些危機被分爲5大類，分別是經濟、環境、地緣政治、社會以及科技，對評估標準是它們發生的可能性與可能帶來的影響。”

該報告徵求了全球700多位專家的意見，“全球最關注的危機”榜單前十位如下所示：

主要經濟體的財政危機

在本年度的全球危機報告中，財政危機位列第一。發達國家的經濟依舊危險，同時新興市場上的信用在近年急速增長，這些都可能導致財政危機。主要經濟體的財政危機將會輕而易舉地影響到全球經濟。

高結構性失業率/不良就業

失業排在榜上的第二位，無論是在發達國家還是新興經濟體中，許多人都在艱難地尋找着工作。年輕人最爲受傷——在部分城市，年輕人的失業率高達50%。就業不理想（低質量就業）是非常普遍的，尤其是在發展中國家。

水源危機

在今年危機排行榜上，環境危機尤爲顯著。當前，水源危機已經排在了第三位，這說明，原本就已經供不應求的水資源，在不當的、日益激烈的競爭之後，人們開始對全球水源危機的意識在不斷加強。

收入兩極化

由於其與社會危機的密切關係，收入兩極化也成爲了最令人擔憂的事情。在發展中國家，財政危機對中產階級產生的擠壓效應引發了人們更深的擔憂，並且，全球化使得新興的發展中國家出現了收入兩極化。

氣候變化抑制失敗

政府和企業被呼籲要求加速推進減少溫室氣體排放進程，但很明顯的是減緩氣候變化是不夠的，我們需要去改變這種變化。如果我們沒能改變它，後果將是極其嚴重的，尤其是對於那些脆弱的發展中國家而言。

極端天氣頻發（如：洪水、暴風和火災等）

氣候變化將主導具有不確定性、不斷變化的天氣模式，這將引起極端天氣頻繁發生，如：洪水和乾旱。《2014全球危機報告》中將這些環境因素與其可能影響到的關鍵性發展與安全問題結合在一起，如食品安全、政治與社會的穩定，它們分別列於榜單上的第8位和第10位。

世界秩序紊亂

全球秩序的紊亂被認爲是整份危機榜單的核心，它可能是其他危機引發的連鎖反應，同時也與其他危機緊密相關。不稱職的全球性機構、與國家政治利益息息相關的條約協議都將阻擋各國通力合作對應全球危機的腳步。

糧食危機

在該報告中，糧食危機成爲第一大社會問題，當出現無法獲得足夠食物的糧食危機時，政府將被認爲是不稱職並且不可信的。糧食危機與氣候變化和其他一些相關因素聯繫非常緊密。

主要金融機構破產

雷曼兄弟銀行破產五年後的今天，主要金融機構的破產成爲全球危機之一，它帶來的後果也令人非常擔憂，同樣令人擔憂的還有對銀行當前所有資產安全等級的不確定。

深層次的政治社會危機

第10位的危機是人們與政府相互間的信任和義務責任的缺失，它很可能發生在大城市，並且不止一個。這將導致政府崩潰、內部暴力武裝、區域性或全球性的不穩定，甚至將引發武裝戰爭。