"石頭、剪刀、布"出啥能贏？

Many people formulate a strategy for the game rock, paper, scissors, which they believe is sure to beat the competition.
玩“石頭、剪刀、布”的時候，許多人都有一套自己的策略，他們相信那就是自己制勝的訣竅。

But a new study reveals players actually don't stick to a plan, rather they become irrational when making their next move - including using the same item that was once a winner.
不過一項新研究發現，玩家其實並不遵循所謂的“策略”，相反，他們常常不理智，比如會傾向贏了後出上一個手勢。

Researchers suggest that if you want to be victorious, choose paper because most people tend to go for rock.
研究表明，如果你想在遊戲中取得勝利，那就要出“布”，因爲大多數人都傾向於出“石頭”。

WHAT DID THE study FIND?
“石頭、剪刀、布”裏的奧祕

Even if participants had a set plan for their next move, their emotions would make the act irrational.
即使玩家已經打算好下一個要出什麼手勢，情緒也會導致他們的最終決定不理智。

Each of the three items carries equal status, which means the only rational method is to use each one an equal number of times – any other approach is irrational, said researchers.
研究員稱，這三種手勢贏的概率相同，因此唯一理智的玩法就是出每種手勢的次數相同，其他的任何玩法都是不理智的。

The study revealed that participants followed a 'win-stay, lose-shift' strategy in how they played the game, which means when they won a round they kept repeating their winning item.
研究表示，玩家遵循着“贏了就出上個手勢，輸了再換其他手勢”的策略，因此一旦贏了一局，之後就總是重複之前的手勢。

It wasn't until they lost did they change their action.
只要一直沒輸，他們就不會換其他的手勢。

Although the optimal strategy is to pick one of the three equally and at random, most people tended to over use rock.
因此，最佳的遊戲策略是在這個三個手勢中隨機出任一個，且每種手勢出的概率相等。不過多數人總會傾向於出“石頭”。

'Rock, paper, scissors (RPS) is a game where predictions of human rational decision-making can be compared with actual performance,' reads the study published in the journal Scientific Reports.
《科學報告》雜誌中寫道：在“剪刀、石頭、布”的遊戲裏，人們以爲自己能做出理性的決策，但實際的表現卻大相徑庭。

'Playing a computerized opponent adopting a mixed-strategy equilibrium, participants revealed a non-significant tendency to over-select rock.'
“計算機玩家採取了平衡策略，即出每種手勢的概率相等，但真實玩家卻略微表現出更愛出‘石頭’的傾向。”

'It's worrying that people tended to make more irrational decisions following a loss,' said Dr. Ben Dyson, lecturer in Psychology at the University of Sussex.
英國薩塞克斯大學心理學教授本•戴森說道：“人們在經歷失敗後會傾向於做出不理智的決定，這點實在令人擔憂。“

'This could have more serious implications in higher-stake scenarios where people are competing to out maneuver one another – in economics or politics, for example.'
“在從事其他更高風險性的事務時，這種傾向可能帶來嚴重後果，比如說當人們需要在經濟或政治領域打敗對手時。”

These irrational decisions are driven by an emotional reaction to a negative outcome and leaves people vulnerable to a smart opponent.'
“不理智的決定源於人們面對負面結果時的情緒，這樣的情緒會使人面對精明的對手時處於劣勢。”

'Emotion might have some distracting effect that deteriorates the quality of our thought.
“情緒可能會分散注意力，降低思考質量。”

'If we can learn to separate emotion from outcome, like successful Poker players, we might be able to mitigate this risk.'
“如果我們學會分開情緒和輸贏結果，像成功的撲克玩家那樣，或許能減少這種風險。”